892
FXCA20 KWBC 072020
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 PM EST TUE JAN 07 2025

FORECAST BULLETIN 07 JANUARY 2025 AT 20 UTC

ARCTIC FRONT: A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... NORTHERN CUBA...QUINTANA
ROO...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND CENTRAL CHIAPAS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING... THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...
AND SOUTHERN CHIAPAS. BY WEDNESDAY... THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHEAST CUBA...NORTHERN HONDURAS... AND
CENTRAL GUATEMALA. BY THURSDAY EVENING... IT IS FORECAST ACROSS
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS... PREFRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO FAVOR
A RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM. BEHIND THE FRONT... A MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO BASIN STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING... DRIVING LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL MAXIMA WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH 40 - 80MM POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN HONDURAS...EASTERN
GUATEMALA... AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. BY THURSDAY... THE AREA OF
GREATEST FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN
COSTA RICA... WHERE EXPECT A RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM ENHANCED
BY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. IN THE EAST
CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS... MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS A
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATES ITSELF IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE... BUT THE TRADE
WIND INVERSION WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE REGION.

SHEAR LINE: A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS IN CENTRAL AMERICA.  BY TONIGHT... THE SHEAR LINE WILL
SPAN ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...SOUTHERN NICARAGUA... AND
NORTHERN COSTA RICA. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING... IT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN
COSTA RICA. BY THURSDAY... THE SHEAR LINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PANAMA. AREAS OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION IMPACT WILL BE THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF NORTHERN COSTA RICA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY... THERE IS A RISK OF ECHO TRAINING AS A MOIST PLUME AND
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW PERSIST IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA...
WHICH WILL LIKELY FAVOR A PEAK IN ACCUMULATION WITH AMOUNTS
FORECAST TO REACH 40 - 80MM/DAY.

IN NORTHERN MEXICO... AN AMPLIFYING POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER... WITH A CURRENT AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA... IS DEVELOPING A
LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST SONORA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING... THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTHWEST
CHIHUAHUA...DURANGO... AND NORTHERN SINALOA. BY THURSDAY... THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS...SOUTHERN NUEVO
LEON...SOUTHERN COAHUILA...SOUTHERN DURANGO...SOUTHERN SINALOA...
AND NORTHERN NAYARIT. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS... MID LEVEL VORTICITY... AND COLD MID LEVELS WILL CREATE
AN ENVIRONMENT SUITABLE FOR SNOW... ESPECIALLY  ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY... GREATEST SNOWFALL CHANCES WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF
SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA... WITH TOTALS OF 15 - 20CM POSSIBLE. BY
THURSDAY... GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN
CHIHUAHUA AND NORTHERN COAHUILA. ELSEWHERE ON THURSDAY... IN
SOUTHERN SINALOA AND NAYARIT... AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT... ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL
YIELD RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 40 - 80MM.

IN SOUTH AMERICA... A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ASSIST IN THE DRYING TREND IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. AREAS OF INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THOSE AFFECTED BY THE ITCZ AND ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
BOLIVIAN HIGH. THE LARGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE ITCZ ON TUESDAY... WHICH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM DUE
TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST
ECUADOR. ON WEDNESDAY... THE ITCZ ALONG THE PACIFIC WILL CONVERGE
ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN COAST. RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM ARE
LIKELY. THE ATLANTIC ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS ALONG NORTHEAST BRASIL AND FRENCH GUIANA THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WITH A DAILY RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 15 - 30MM POSSIBLE.

TINOCO...(WPC)
GALVEZ...(WPC)




















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