386
FXCA20 KWBC 071540
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1040 AM EST FRI FEB 07 2025

FORECAST BULLETIN 7 FEBRUARY 2025 AT 18:00 UTC

...LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS...
MJO:
THE MJO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT
APPROACHES PHASE 7 EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MJO IS STILL IN
PHASE 6 THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS ALREADY GRADUALLY BECOMING
UPPER DIVERGENT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
EASTERLY TRADES IN SOME REGIONS AND A WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WIND
STABLE LAYER.

KELVIN WAVE:
NONE SIGNIFICANT KELVIN WAVE APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.

ENSO CONDITIONS:
LA NINA
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS REMAINED GENERALLY STABLE... WITH TYPICAL
LA NIA CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS
FEBRUARY.

...SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...
UPPER LEVELS: A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS
AND TURKS AND CAICOS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY COULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HOWEVER LIMITED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GREATER ANTILLES.

MID-LEVELS: THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST...
FURTHER REINFORCING THE TRADE WIND INVERSION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ADDITIONALLY... DRY AIR AT THIS LEVEL CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS SITUATION WILL PROMOTE FAIR
CONDITIONS...LIMITING THE COVER OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

LOWER LEVELS:
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC... LEADING TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
GREATER ANTILLES FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS... COMBINED WITH A
SHALLOW MOISTURE PLUMES MOVING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES... WILL
PROMOTE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

...PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN...
THE FOLLOWING ISOLATED MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:
LESSER ANTILLES: MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: MAXIMA OF 10MM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
EASTERN CUBA: MAXIMA OF 10MM ON FRIDAY.
PUERTO RICO: A MAXIMA OF 10MM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

...CENTRAL AMERICA...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FACILITATING THE TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA`S CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE
AREAS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST INCLUDE NICARAGUA... NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS... BELIZE... AND THE WESTERN PART OF PANAMA.

...PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AMERICA...
THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:
BELIZE: MAXIMA IN THE RANGE OF 10 - 15 MM ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY
EASTERN NICARAGUA: A MAXIMA 20-35MM ON FRIDAY. A MAXIMA 20 - 30MM
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NORTHERN HONDURAS: MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF WEST PANAMA: A MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

...SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS OVER TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...

OVERALL: THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE... WE WILL OBSERVE
A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM UPPER CONVERGENT TO MORE UPPER DIVERGENT
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH.
THIS WILL PROMOTE AND INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVENTION
DEVELOPMENT.

CURRENTLY THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT PROVIDING ADEQUATE
SUPPORT DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR AND UPPER CONVERGENCE. THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR WARM CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERIOR COAST OF ECUADOR AND THE ANDES FROM
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND PERPENDICULAR ONSHORE FLOW. BY SUNDAY... INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE ENHANCE DYNAMICALLY-INDUCED ASCENT AND FACILITATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT... THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE
ANTICIPATED:

NORTHERN  AND COAST OF ECUADOR: A MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA: A MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AN MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM ON SUNDAY.
NORTHERN COLOMBIA: A MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AN INCREASE BY SUNDAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 20 -  40MM.

THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... RESULTING IN A REDUCTION OF THE DRY
AREAS AND AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE... ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME
MOVING OVER THE GUIANAS AND AMAPA... WILL FACILITATE AN INCREASE
IN RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THERE IS A RISK OF ECHO
TRAINING ON SUNDAY. WET CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION ARE
CHARACTERISTIC OF LA NIA CONDITIONS DURING FEBRUARY.

THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE ANTICIPATED:
THE GUIANAS AND AMAPA: A MAXIMA OF 20 - 40MM ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A MAXIMA OF 40 - 80 ON SUNDAY.

TYPICAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE ITCZ/NET OVER  CONTINENTAL
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA INDICATE AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN
RAINFALL.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AND WILL FAVOR DAILY MAXIMA GENERALLY IN
THE RANGE OF 20 TO 50 MM OVER THE COMING DAYS.

FOR GRAPHICAL INFORMATION:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML

LEDESMA...(WPC)
GALVEZ...(WPC























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