480
FXUS65 KBYZ 050019
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
519 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday.

- Turning unsettled and cooler Sunday into early next week.

- Periods of gusty/strong winds along the western foothills
  through the week. Winds look to be strongest Friday night into
  Sunday morning.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday night...

Current analysis shows cyclonic flow into the Dakotas and
Minnesota which brought a back door front through the region
today. This will generally keep temps from warming with highs
forecasted to be in the 30s and 40s for Billings east and 40s and
50s west. Lows tonight will range from the single digits along the
ND/MT border to low 40s along the foothills. Into this evening,
another push of cold air from the northwest will move through,
bringing a small chance (10-20%) of low stratus and fog stretching
from Harlowton to Billings down to Sheridan, WY. Any fog that
forms should clear shortly after sunrise. Small chances (10-15%)
exist for some flurries in east central MT overnight tonight, but
no accumulation is expected given the weak forcing. A weak
gradient over the western foothills will give way to weak gap
winds tonight in the Livingston, Big Timber and Nye areas with
gusts of 20-40 mph expected. West flow in the lower levels will
allow for downsloping. This will bring warmer and dryer air back
into the region with highs in the upper 30s east and low 50s west.
TS


Friday through Wednesday...

Main forecast concerns are on gusty winds in the western
foothills this weekend focus then turns to a weather pattern
change to cooler and more active late this weekend into early
next week.

A pressure gradient will be in place at times Friday through
Saturday across the western foothills producing gusty winds.  WPC
clusters are in fairly good agreement from Sunday into Monday
showing a pattern change with a trough moving through the area. This
system looks to bring a medium chance for mountain snow and lower
elevation rain/snow mix before switching over to all snow as cooler
air arrives Sunday night. There is a high chance for light to
moderate snow accumulations in the mountains with some light
accumulations possible in lower elevations with travel impacts
possible at times. Forecast confidence is low beyond Tuesday of next
week with WPC Clusters showing differing solutions, half of the
clusters are showing a ridging pattern while the others indicate
more zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated light snow showers/flurries are expected east of KMLS-
Broadus tonight, with local MVFR possible. A bit further west,
from Roundup to KBIL to KSHR, localized fog and low stratus are
possible overnight thru ~16z Thursday. If fog develops it will
likely produce LIFR-VLIFR, so this is something to watch,
including at Billings Logan Airport beginning around 09z. VFR will
prevail along the western foothills, with SW-W winds gusting
20-30 knots at KLVM beginning later tonight and continuing
tomorrow. After any morning fog/stratus, VFR will prevail
regionwide Thursday under strong high pressure aloft. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 023/050 031/052 035/054 036/045 027/038 023/041 025/044
    00/U    00/U    00/B    23/O    32/S    10/U    10/B
LVM 030/053 030/052 033/052 031/041 024/036 020/040 025/043
    00/U    00/N    00/N    55/S    42/S    00/B    11/B
HDN 019/047 024/052 026/056 034/046 024/037 019/040 020/044
    00/U    00/U    00/B    25/O    54/S    11/B    11/B
MLS 018/038 021/048 028/055 034/046 022/032 019/037 022/039
    20/U    00/U    00/B    13/O    32/S    00/B    10/B
4BQ 021/046 025/052 030/057 034/046 023/031 020/037 021/041
    20/U    00/U    00/B    14/O    33/S    11/B    10/B
BHK 009/037 020/045 025/054 030/044 017/028 012/032 015/036
    21/B    00/U    00/B    13/O    41/N    00/B    00/B
SHR 021/050 026/053 025/060 029/045 020/034 017/041 019/044
    00/U    00/U    00/B    15/O    43/S    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings