453
FXUS65 KBYZ 092323
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
423 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wintry mix of rain and snow, with pockets of light freezing
  rain possible, on Wednesday, tracking from west to east.

- Another period of strong winds along the foothills west of
  Billings Wednesday into Thursday. Moderate to high chance of
  seeing 60 mph wind gusts.

- Cold front brings colder temperatures and snow back to the area
  later Thursday into Saturday. Rapid onset of the cold mixed with
  falling snow may result in a flash freeze. Stay tuned.

- Best chance of heavy accumulating snow Thursday into Saturday is
  over the plains, generally between Billings and Baker where
  there is a 50-70 percent chance of at least 6 inches of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...

A very active week of weather is upon us...BE READY!

The strong, damaging winds that occurred today are starting to
subside this afternoon with the passage of a cold front.
Therefore, the High Wind Warnings across the area have been
canceled. With that said, breezy conditions will continue into
this evening across the area, lingering the longest in far eastern
Montana. Along with the wind, scattered rain and snow showers
continue to sink south across the area this afternoon. This is
creating some hazardous driving conditions over the higher hills
in southern Montana and northern Wyoming, so use caution traveling
along Interstate 90 and Highway 212 this afternoon into this
evening. Otherwise, look for the precipitation to come to an end
this evening across the area. Over the Absaroka-Beartooth
mountains, periods of moderate to heavy snow will continue into
Wednesday.

Tonight, look for temperatures to drop around to below freezing.
While not overly cold, this is important for tomorrow (Wednesday)
as another surge of Pacific moisture is expected to spread
precipitation across the area from west to east during the day.
While precipitation amounts are not expected to be very high with
this system, anywhere from a trace to a couple tenths of an inch
of liquid, temperatures around to below freezing will lead to
precipitation type issues. At this time, high resolution models
favor mainly snow becoming rain as temperatures warm behind a warm
front passage. The issue will be during the transition from snow
to rain when freezing rain is possible (around 20 percent chance
across much of the area). While lower in confidence, this could
lead to higher end impacts where roads become slick. Therefore,
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued across much of south-
central and eastern Montana Wednesday.

Wednesday into Thursday, another round of strong winds is
expected over the foothills west of Billings as 700mb winds
increase around 60 to 70 knots, strongest Thursday morning. With
this, the chance of seeing 60 mph wind gusts is moderate to high
around Livingston to Nye and Big Timber through Harlowton
Wednesday into Thursday. While the chance is low to moderate,
occasional gusts to 70 mph could occur again, mainly Thursday
morning.

Late Thursday, a cold front is expected to drop through the
region. This will usher in much colder temperatures, along with
periods of overrunning snow, late Thursday into Saturday. With the
rapid onset of cold temperatures combined with snow, a flash
freeze scenario is possible for late Thursday, potentially during
the evening commute. Along with the flash freeze, a band of heavy
snow from the Pacific moisture overrunning the cold air will
likely lead to an area heavy snow totals somewhere between
Harlowton, Billings, and Baker, Montana. The exact placement of
this area of heavy snow remains uncertain as it depends on how far
west the cold air digs. At this point, the chance of seeing 6 or
more inches is 50 to 70 percent between Harlowton to Billings to
Baker. Because of this, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for
portions of south-central and eastern Montana late Thursday into
Saturday.

By Sunday into early next week, a dry, slightly warmer, and windy
pattern looks to return. Depending on where the snow falls later
this week, there may be a risk of blowing/drifting snow as the
cold air retreats, but lots of uncertainty remains on this. Arends

.AVIATION...

Strong winds over the region will decrease through the afternoon
with gusts 35-45 kts most likely across all taf sites. Winds will
decrease through the evening with gusts generally below 20 kts.
Gusty southwest winds will pick up again Wednesday afternoon for
KLVM with gusts 40-45 kts expected. Isolated to scattered showers
will end late this afternoon before scattered to numerous snow
showers spread west to east Wednesday morning. There is about a
20-30% chance for mixed precipitation Wednesday morning through
the afternoon across all taf sites. Mountains will be obscured
through the TAF period due to heavy snowfall. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/052 045/058 015/017 005/017 005/042 025/042 029/046
    28/O    25/O    88/S    42/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
LVM 031/054 046/055 034/047 027/042 030/049 033/050 035/050
    77/O    24/R    76/O    32/O    00/B    11/B    12/R
HDN 027/049 041/057 013/018 002/017 000/039 017/039 022/044
    28/O    46/O    88/S    63/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
MLS 024/041 033/047 006/009 906/008 906/034 017/033 021/041
    18/O    55/O    67/S    82/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
4BQ 027/045 037/053 011/016 003/015 003/039 022/039 026/045
    17/O    44/O    78/S    72/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
BHK 017/039 027/042 000/008 908/006 909/031 015/035 019/040
    08/S    76/O    54/S    92/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 024/048 036/057 016/028 007/028 013/049 023/048 026/050
    27/O    23/R    75/S    32/S    10/B    00/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 AM to 11 AM MST
      Wednesday FOR ZONES
      29-34-42-56-63-66-141-170-172-173-228-235.
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
      Saturday morning FOR ZONES
      29>34-36-37-42-57-58-63-68-138-141-172-173-228-235.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 8 AM to 5 PM MST
      Wednesday FOR ZONES 30>32-36-57-58-138-169.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM MST
      Wednesday FOR ZONES 33-37.
     High Wind Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
      Thursday afternoon FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
     Wind Advisory in effect from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 PM MST
      Thursday FOR ZONES 65-66.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect until 5 PM MST Wednesday FOR
      ZONE 67.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 8 AM to 5 PM MST
      Wednesday FOR ZONE 199.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 PM MST Wednesday
      FOR ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings