157
FXUS65 KBYZ 060010
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
610 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and Dry with mainly light winds Sunday-Thursday

- Increasing concentrations of smoke possible Sunday

&&

.UPDATE...
The high wind warning and red flag warning have both expired.
Elevated conditions will linger for fire weathe, but humidities
are rising above 20% and winds slowly decreasing. Soundings
indicate further significant improvement after sunset. Folks
should still use caution to avoid sparking fires as fuels are
drier than seasonal norms. BT

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The rest of today through Sunday night...

Relative humidity values are dropping back into the 15 to 25%
range with strong northwest winds and dry air mixing down. Given
the low RH and still breezy conditions, a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect through 6 PM today. Winds will gradually
decrease from west to east through the day, and a High Wind
Warning is in effect for northern Rosebud, Custer, Fallon, and
Carter counties until 6 PM today.

For tomorrow, dry conditions and light winds are expected, with
highs still above normal for this time of year (in the 70s). Smoke
from wildfires is expected to move in and may impact air quality.
Visit https://fire.airnow.gov/ for the latest conditions. Archer



Monday through Saturday...

There is high confidence in warm and dry conditions continuing
through at least Thursday next week. With this, look for high
temperatures to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with no chance of
precipitation. While breezy conditions are possible along the
western foothills during this time, no strong wind events will
occur. While this will help limit fire weather concerns,
unseasonably warm temperatures combined with lower relative
humidities will keep some fire weather concerns in the forecast.
As we get into the second half of the week, the axis of the ridge
responsible for the warm and dry conditions will begin to shift
east of our area. As this occurs, ensembles are hinting at a
potential weak trough moving inland from the Pacific Northwest
Friday into Saturday. This could be our next chance for
precipitation and cooler (back towards normal) temperatures across
the area. Latest NBM shows a 20-40% chance (greatest in the
Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains) of 0.10" precipitation mainly over
south central MT and north central WY Friday night-Saturday. Will
have to see how this system evolves in coming days. Arends/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z update: Windy conditions will continue to dissipate over the
next couple hours. Smoke from wildfires in Idaho and Wyoming will
affect slant-range visibility at KLVM, KBIL and KSHR. Minor
surface visibility reductions are possible at KSHR, but confidence
is low given the low fire activity. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/074 046/080 047/082 050/082 052/081 049/072 046/066
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/E    21/B
LVM 039/078 041/078 043/080 045/081 048/080 045/073 040/066
    00/H    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/W    22/W
HDN 037/076 043/081 043/084 045/083 047/083 047/075 043/066
    00/K    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    21/B
MLS 037/072 042/079 043/082 046/082 049/081 048/073 044/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B    21/B
4BQ 038/074 043/079 046/083 048/085 053/085 048/077 047/067
    00/H    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
BHK 033/069 040/078 043/082 044/083 048/082 045/073 041/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
SHR 035/078 042/080 042/084 045/084 048/086 045/077 041/065
    00/K    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings