601
FXUS65 KBYZ 271931
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
131 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures remain possible today across the
  forecast area.

- Isolated thunderstorms generally west and north of Billings this
  afternoon and evening. Gusty winds up to 50 mph and small hail
  possible with this activity.

- Persistent precipitation (0.25 - 0.5 inches) and cooler
  temperatures forecast Friday night through Sunday. Some lower
  elevation snow accumulation, heaviest accumulations Saturday
  night into Sunday morning.

- Another round of precipitation Tuesday/Wednesday with a medium
  chance (30-50%) for greater than 0.1 inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Friday Night...

Temperatures are warming well above normal this afternoon ahead
of the expected cold front passage this evening. At this time,
record daily high temperatures are still possible at all climate
sites. See the table below for more information.

Daily High Temperature Records for Today, March 27:

Station    |   Record   | Forecast High
-------------------------------------
Billings   | 77F (2015) |     81F
Baker      | 68F (2015) |     73F
Livingston | 74F (2015) |     74F
Miles City | 82F (1946) |     81F
Sheridan   | 75F (1986) |     81F

As the cold front arrives late this afternoon and evening, expect
scattered showers to develop along it. With the warm temperatures
ahead of the front, there should be enough CAPE available for an
isolated thunderstorm or two as well, mainly west and north of
Billings. By sunset, the isolated thunderstorm threat will
diminish as the instability goes away. Therefore, the mention of
thunder in the forecast remains west and north of a Columbus to
Billings to Miles City line. With any isolated thunderstorm that
develops today, gusty winds to 50 mph and small hail are possible.

After the initiation round of precipitation this afternoon and
evening, a secondary area of lower elevation rain looks to move
through the region overnight into Friday morning as a shortwave
trough moves through aloft. Precipitation amounts during this time
are expected to remain light. After this, a brief period of upper
level ridging looks to move through Friday morning and afternoon
allowing cloud cover to decrease and dry conditions to prevail.
During this time, temperatures will warm into the 55 to 65 degree
range, which will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than today. By Friday
afternoon and evening, surface winds look to turn out of the
northeast across the area. This will facilitate another round of
more widespread precipitation to build into the region. With this,
precipitation will start out as rain once again below 6000ft. By
late Friday night into Saturday morning, a rain/snow mix is
possible over the lower elevations. If you have outdoor plans
Saturday morning, plan for wet and cool conditions. Arends

Saturday through Thursday...

The long term will be an active period of weather. Precipitation
will begin early Saturday with precipitation type being elevation
dependent with the mountains and foothills likely getting
snow and lower elevations staying as rain for the day Saturday.
Temperatures will cool enough for a broader changeover to snow
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures may not warm
enough Sunday to change precipitation back to rain for lower
elevations. Friday through Sunday, NBM is giving much of
Southeast Montana a 50-70% chance of getting greater than 0.5
inches of precipitation with lower chances (10-20%) for locations
in Custer and Fallon Counties. Most lower elevations have a 30-50%
chance for greater than 2 inches of snowfall. There is the
potential for a more significant snow event Saturday night
through Sunday for locations in far Southeast Montana with Carter
County having a 20-40% chance of getting greater than 6 inches of
snowfall.

Monday looks to be a calmer with shortwave ridging making its way
into the region. WPC clusters are in good agreement that next week
will stay active with additional upper level waves and
precipitation chances, although there is a lot of uncertainty in
how exactly this will look. The next system in which there is
broad agreement is Tuesday/ Wednesday as an upper level trough
moves into the central plains. NBM is giving Southeast Montana a
30-60% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation from
this system.

High temperatures Saturday will be in the mid 30s F to mid 40s F
with all areas in the 30s F by Sunday. Temperatures will start to
moderate Monday with seasonal temperatures in the high 40s to mid
50s F. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers are forecast to move through the area late this
afternoon and evening, potentially impacting KLVM, KBIL and KMLS.
During this time, isolated weak thunderstorms are also forecast
generally west and north of KBIL. Since the chance of thunder
drops off quickly around sunset today, thunder is not expected at
or east of KBIL at this time. Around KLVM, there is a slight
chance of thunder today, but confidence is currently too low to
add thunder to the TAF. Will amend as necessary. With this
activity, brief reductions to MVFR are possible. Erratic surface
winds and small hail are also possible under any thunderstorm that
develops. Another round of rain is then possible (20 to 30
percent chance) late tonight into early Friday morning over all
TAF sites. With this, brief reductions to MVFR may occur. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/064 036/045 032/039 027/053 033/052 034/054 032/059
    22/W    66/R    76/S    12/R    46/O    43/O    12/R
LVM 040/058 036/046 030/039 027/051 031/044 029/046 028/050
    23/W    67/O    86/S    15/R    66/S    33/S    23/O
HDN 045/063 034/044 029/040 024/055 031/052 031/054 029/059
    32/W    77/R    67/S    11/B    46/R    43/O    12/R
MLS 046/058 030/040 028/037 025/048 030/052 031/053 031/057
    32/W    36/O    34/S    20/B    23/O    32/O    11/B
4BQ 049/063 033/038 028/034 023/046 030/049 031/050 031/057
    22/W    78/R    56/S    20/B    24/O    43/O    11/B
BHK 042/060 025/037 022/037 020/041 025/049 027/051 029/056
    22/W    36/O    44/S    20/B    34/O    32/O    11/B
SHR 041/062 034/045 026/037 022/052 028/049 027/049 026/055
    23/W    87/R    78/S    11/B    36/O    54/O    12/R

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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