410
FXUS65 KBYZ 241406
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
806 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Comfortable temps into next week.

- Very little chance of precipitation over the plains through
  Wednesday.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms return to much of the area
  Thursday into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Dry NW flow aloft will keep our weather quiet again today. Look
for high temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s most places, with
persistent easterly winds. Forecast is in good shape. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday night...

The region will remain under northwest flow aloft allowing for dry
and comfortable conditions. Temperatures today and Monday will be
in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Smoke from regional should continue
to remain aloft as low level winds out of the east/northeast
persist. Monsoonal moisture from the southwest is expected to
begin working its way into the Beartooth/Absarokas Monday night,
increasing precipitation chances for the days to follow. See
discussion below for more details. TS

Tuesday through Saturday...

Quiet weather will continue through the first half of the coming
work week thanks to the persistent upper ridge axis to our west.
Temps will be around or slightly above normal Tuesday/Wednesday.
Some monsoonal moisture and impulses will start to work into SW MT
and lead to an increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms over
the Absarokas/Beartooths and nearby foothills.

Ensembles all suggest some semblance of a short wave trough will
develop and slowly meander into SW MT by Wednesday night and
Thursday. PoPs jump up to likely categories over the mountains
with isolated to scattered convective activity spilling over to
the foothills and nearby plains by Thursday. The short wave trough
shifts across the rest of the region through Friday. This will
shift the focus for precipitation to the eastern high plains.
This is followed by weak ridging and drying heading into next
weekend.

Look for temps to back off a bit after midweek as the
aforementioned short wave trough moves across, before climbing a
bit over season averages again by Saturday. Generally speaking,
temps will simply be fluctuating within the 80s in the extended
period for most locations.

The main concern with the pattern we are seeing is the potential
for slow moving heavy rainers (thunderstorms)...not really hail
or high winds. Mid level flow will be quite weak, and PWATs are
progged to climb to over an inch by Thursday and Friday. This will
be something to be aware of if you have outdoor plans, especially
for outdoor enthusiasts in the mountains. Areas around and near
burn scars will be monitored closely. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the
period. Expect slant range visibility to be reduced at times due
to regional wildfire smoke. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 051/083 052/083 060/080 060/081 059/083 058/085
    0/U 00/U    00/B    11/E    24/T    33/T    21/U
LVM 082 046/083 049/082 052/074 051/077 050/081 049/082
    0/U 00/U    02/W    34/T    56/T    44/T    22/T
HDN 082 048/083 049/086 058/082 059/082 056/083 056/085
    0/U 00/U    00/B    11/E    23/T    33/T    21/U
MLS 077 048/079 050/085 057/084 060/082 060/082 058/083
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    11/E    32/W    21/B
4BQ 077 049/078 050/084 060/081 060/080 059/081 058/082
    0/U 00/U    00/B    11/B    12/T    33/T    31/B
BHK 074 044/076 047/082 053/084 055/081 056/081 055/081
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    21/B
SHR 079 046/080 048/083 055/079 054/078 051/078 052/081
    0/U 00/U    01/B    23/T    45/T    44/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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