


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
857 FXUS65 KBYZ 080759 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 159 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures Today and Wednesday (upper 80s to 102). Heat Advisory some areas Wednesday. - Isolated Dry thunderstorms with strong wind gust potential Wednesday afternoon/evening. - Cold front brings precipitation chances Thursday and Friday; Highs in the 70s Friday. - Accumulating snow possible above 10kft Thursday night (Beartooth Highway). - Warmer next weekend, but low confidence forecast Sunday-Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Through Wednesday night... Heat is the word for the short term. Ridging aloft with plenty of sun, and stronger mid level zonal downslope flow will help boost temperatures well into the 90s today. Can`t rule out a few triple digits over central areas. Pre-frontal warming Wednesday will add a few degrees to todays readings, with triple digits in the forecast for most locations from Yellowstone county east to Custer and Powder River counties. NBM probabilities for 100+ degrees Wednesday are 60-90 percent in these areas. The HeatRisk forecast which takes into account length of time the heat persists, along with humidity and other human factors, is at a 3/5 in the hottest areas, high enough to go with a Heat Advisory for these triple digit areas. Will issue the Heat Advisory with this forecast package from 9am-9pm Wednesday. Forecast for the short term look dry. Models have at times tried to develop a few mountain initiated showers/thunderstorms, especially late Wednesday, but any convection will be fighting very warm 700mb temperatures. In general 700mb temperatures of +12c or warmer will cap convection, even in the mountains. Current forecast for Wednesday afternoon is for 700mb temperatures +13 to +16c, so well above that threshold. So, any low pops through early Wednesday evening are probably wishful thinking. That said it is hard to ignore the latest HREF showing widely scattered mainly dry convection developing late Wednesday afternoon producing pockets of strong (50+mph) wind gusts. SREF is also showing strong dry thunderstorm potential in the afternoon/early evening. Will have to keep an eye on this dry thunderstorm potential for wind impacts to outdoor activities, and fire impacts with strong winds and dry lightning. Mid level temperatures do begin to cool mid to late evening Wednesday as a Pacific trof and associated cold front arrive. This combination of cooling aloft and surface convergence may be enough for low precipitation chances to be a more reasonable thought later Wednesday night into the early morning hours as the atmosphere especially down low begins to moisten up. Chambers Thursday through Tuesday... Upper trof pushes a Pacific cold front through the forecast area Thursday morning. This will drop temperatures from the triple digits Wednesday to the mid/upper 80s Thursday, then into the 70s Friday with 60s likely in the higher foothills (Red Lodge). Precipitation really holds off until late in the day Thursday as the main upper trof transits from Alberta southeast across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Models have been steadily bumping up precipitation chances and accumulations with this system over the past few days, along with cooling temperatures Friday as the core of the upper system drops right over eastern Montana. Probabilities for a quarter inch or more of precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning have increased into the 35 to 55 percent range for most of the area, with the highest probabilities west of Rosebud county and south into the Sheridan foothills. Interestingly, and coming on the heels of the Hot temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, snow levels drop to around 10kft Thursday night through Friday morning. The latest NBM shows several inches of snow accumulation at and above that elevation in the Beartooth/Absaroka, including over portions of the Beartooth highway. Will keep an eye on this for a possible Winter Weather advisory for the pass Thursday night. Anyone planning high elevation outdoor activities Thursday/Friday should be prepared for wet conditions low to mid elevations, and winter like conditions above 10kft. Flat west to northwest flow aloft fills in over the area behind exiting trof on Saturday. This downslope gradient plus good sunshine will boost temperatures from the 70s Friday into the mid to upper 80s for Saturday. Sunday into Tuesday looks more uncertain regarding temperatures and precipitation as the NBM is warming temperatures into the 90s with mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday, but many ensemble members push a cold front and northerly surface winds into the area Sunday. Another shot of northerly winds arrives Monday in some ensembles and the deterministic ECMFW is showing a cool and rainy day on Tuesday. So, there is low confidence in the late weekend early next week forecast at this time. Chambers && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Over the foothills, including near KLVM, winds will increase out of the west this afternoon, with gusts to around 20-25 kts. Otherwise, winds will remain mostly light. Archer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 097 064/100 064/086 054/076 053/089 060/090 062/087 0/U 02/T 22/T 72/W 00/U 00/U 11/U LVM 093 056/095 054/083 047/075 046/086 052/089 054/088 0/U 02/T 23/T 61/U 00/U 00/B 11/U HDN 097 062/101 062/087 053/075 050/088 056/091 059/088 0/U 02/T 21/U 83/W 00/U 00/U 11/U MLS 097 066/102 065/089 056/075 053/087 059/091 061/086 0/U 01/G 21/U 73/W 10/B 00/U 11/U 4BQ 094 067/097 065/087 055/072 052/084 059/088 062/086 0/U 01/U 20/B 63/T 10/U 00/U 10/U BHK 090 062/098 060/086 053/070 048/082 055/087 056/085 0/U 01/U 21/B 53/T 10/U 00/U 11/B SHR 094 059/097 058/086 049/070 044/084 053/088 055/085 0/U 02/T 21/B 65/T 10/U 00/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Heat Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ZONES 29>33-57-173-235. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings