003
FXUS65 KBYZ 010823
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
223 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday Night...

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms continue to move out of
the far east into the Dakotas this morning. These storms will be
sub-severe, capable of producing only small hail, lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall with stronger storms.

Slightly below to near normal high temperatures are in store
today, with highs in the 70s to low 80s. The chance for
precipitation across much of the region will increase later today,
with shortwave energy and a weak cold front passing through.
There is a Marginal Risk from the SPC for southeastern MT and
northeastern WY today. The primary risk with the strongest storms
will be hail and a few strong wind gusts. Current models do not
suggest a very favorable environment for severe storms but one or
two can`t be ruled out. The largest expected hail size today will
be 1" or quarter-sized. Precipitation probabilities are 35-70%,
highest west of Billings, before increasing with eastward
progression of the front.

Snow levels will drop to around 10,000 feet tonight and into
Tuesday morning. Light and wet snow showers over the
higher peaks in the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains, including the
Beartooth Highway, will be capable of producing light
accumulations.

General troughing and an unsettled weather pattern will continue
through Tuesday, with the a 25-60% chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Expect this chance to remain confined to southern
MT and Sheridan County into the afternoon when another round of
energy and precipitation arrives to the region. With this second
round, the chance for precip is 25-60% across the forecast area.
Overnight Tuesday, the chance for precip will decrease, with a few
isolated showers possible. High temperatures in the 70s to low 80s
are forecast for Tuesday with overnight lows in the 50s.

Matos

Wednesday through Monday...

Unsettled weather does not end in the mid week now, and instead
looks to continue into the weekend, and while no huge, high-impact
events are seen at the moment, it looks like every day has a
chance for thunderstorms, but on the bright side, more mild
temperatures which results in a delay of the onset of July`s
usually hot appearance.

Wednesday starts us off with the highest chance for a potential
severe thunderstorm day (though highest in this case being
relative). A trough and its associated cold front looks to swing
through during the day, and combined with modest shear and
instability will bring about what looks like an isolated severe
storm threat. Lingering post-frontal lift will keep showers and
persisting overnight and into the 4th of July. While the
afternoon of the 4th could see additional storms (though not
looking severe at the moment) the consensus is still that the
storm and rain potential should move out of the area in the
evening. Most of southeast MT during this 24 hour period has a
10-30% chance of getting at least 0.5" of rain. The exceptions
maybe being far southeast MT (think past Rosebud County). So
although it will be a wet 4th of July, the pros are that one, this
will help to keep temperatures on the cooler side, and two, it
looks to stop by sunset.

While prominent upper ridging still looks to occur, confidence is
still increase that it stays further west and actually keeps
Montana under unsettled northwest flow, which brings a small
chance for storms and showers each day through the weekend. Though
again, on the bright side, this will keep temperatures near-
normal for the time being.

Vertz
&&

.AVIATION...

Another round of rain showers will pass through all terminals
later this morning. There is a small chance for these to become
weak thunderstorms in the afternoon, but depending on how long
morning showers linger will be a factor if storms end up forming
in the afternoon. If any storms do form, mostly MVFR conditions
expected if they pass over a terminal. Vertz
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 056/079 055/079 053/074 053/084 058/088 058/085
    5/T 23/T    14/T    55/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 075 048/076 047/076 046/073 046/082 051/086 053/084
    5/T 32/T    14/T    44/T    11/U    11/U    12/T
HDN 080 054/079 052/079 051/074 049/083 053/089 053/086
    5/T 23/T    25/T    56/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 078 057/079 055/079 055/074 054/082 058/086 056/084
    4/T 13/T    14/T    56/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 077 057/079 053/081 054/072 053/080 056/086 056/085
    5/T 13/T    14/T    56/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
BHK 078 053/077 052/079 051/072 051/078 054/083 054/082
    3/T 02/T    03/T    57/T    22/T    12/T    11/U
SHR 075 051/076 048/079 048/071 046/080 051/086 051/083
    6/T 44/T    13/T    55/T    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings