605
FXUS65 KBYZ 011501
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
901 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer/dry conditions and breezy in spots for today and
  Wednesday.

- No chance of meaningful precipitation over the foreseeable
  future.

&&

.UPDATE...
Many locations dropped to the upper 20s and lower 30s last night
(the coldest yet of the fall) but onset of downslope warming
brought rising temps early this morning. Today will be dry and
warm with temps to the mid 70s to lower 80s, and afternoon
humidity as low as 10 percent. In fact, we are already seeing RHs
in the mid teens at Big Timber and Livingston...along with a
breezy SW-W wind. Forecast has this covered well but did tweak
winds up a bit this morning along the western foothills. The Elk
Fire in the northern Bighorns (west of Dayton) continues to burn
fairly hot, and its smoke will cause visibility issues along the
slopes of the mountains and possibly Sheridan at times. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...

Went with an RFW for Zone 133 in the east part of the area, due to
above normal temps, low RH`s and breezy conditions. The fuels
there are particularly dry which supported the RFW. Elsewhere, it will
also be warm with temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s with low
RH`s. It will be breezy, especially W of KBIL, but fuels were not
as dry in other parts of the area. Will highlight the FWF with
these conditions for the rest of the area as Fosberg highlighted
other areas, mainly from KLVM to K3HT due to the winds, as well as
Carbon County. Based on ECMWF meteograms, nudged wind speeds up
by 50% toward the NBM 90th percentile in the afternoon. The NW,
slightly anticyclonic flow over the region today will become a
flatter NW flow tonight and take on a slightly cyclonic curvature
on Wednesday as a shortwave moves into N MT. Pressure pattern
supported possible brief gap winds tonight, otherwise winds will
decrease over much of the area. It will be a warmer night with
lows in the 40s and 50s. The shortwave will drive a backdoor cold
front S through the forecast area on Wednesday, resulting in
somewhat cooler conditions and higher RH`s. RH`s will remain low
across the southern tier. It will be breezy over parts of the
area, but not over the low RH areas, so fire highlights will
likely not be needed. Cyclonic flow continues Wed. night with a
couple of the models showing some QPF. Kept a dry forecast for now
due to limited lift. Low temps will range from the low 30s NW to
the low 40s central and E. Winds will be light. Arthur

Thursday through Tuesday...

Dry zonal to NW flow over the region will keep near to above
normal temperatures in the forecast through the long term. Highs
are forecast to range from the 60s on Thursday, warming back into
mainly the 70s starting Friday, and continuing through Tuesday.
Precipitation chances are low to nonexistent through the long
term. Overall, winds look fairly light most days, with gusty winds over
portions of the area on Saturday as a wave moves through the
region. Given the lack of rainfall since the middle of September,
fire weather concerns remain present for the lower elevations.
Those getting outdoors to recreate and hunt will need to be extra
cautious with anything that could start a fire until rainfall
arrives, especially on windy days. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through the period, but local reductions to MVFR
due to smoke from the Elk Fire are expected near KSHR. Slant
range visibility will be reduced at times. South to southwest
winds will prevail over the area today, gusting into the 20s kts
at times along the western foothills and near the Dakotas border.
JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 052/075 041/065 039/079 054/077 046/079 049/081
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 079 050/075 034/067 037/082 050/077 044/079 044/079
    0/N 00/N    00/U    00/U    10/N    00/U    00/U
HDN 080 047/074 039/067 037/079 049/079 042/079 044/082
    0/K 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 077 048/070 041/065 039/076 051/075 042/075 045/079
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/N    00/U    00/U
4BQ 078 050/073 042/066 039/079 052/077 042/076 046/081
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 076 046/071 037/064 036/076 048/074 039/072 043/079
    0/N 00/U    01/B    00/U    00/N    00/U    00/U
SHR 081 046/077 036/068 035/082 049/080 041/080 044/083
    0/U 00/K    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
      ZONE 133.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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