451
FXUS65 KBYZ 081405
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
805 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm into Friday. Occasionally breezy along the
  foothills.

- Weather system arrives this weekend, bringing cooler temps,
  increased winds, rain showers at lower elevations and mountain
  snow.

- Probability of 6+ inches of snow in the mountains is 30-50
  percent.

- Unsettled weather continues into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday night...

Strong upper level ridge will keep our region warm and dry through
the period. We will draw warmer air from the SW today, pushing
temps to the low-mid 70s. There is a trof over BC that is
currently splitting, and the northern portion of the split will
track eastward over the next couple days, bringing a modest
backdoor front into our area Thursday. The shift to NE-E winds
will drop temps just a bit, especially for western and central
areas. Look for highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s tomorrow. Still
warmer than normal.

There is no chance of precip during this period, but by Thursday
night we should start to see some high clouds spread in from the
south, courtesy of a developing moist flow out of the SW CONUS and
a stalled upper low along the Pacific coast.

JKL

Friday through Wednesday...

Friday will see above average temperatures in the 70s F. Friday
has also been trending windier, especially for locations near the
Dakotas border. Most locations from Rosebud County and east have a
decent chance (>50%) of seeing a wind gust over 30 mph.

Saturday looks to be a transition day with an upper level trough
dropping into the region bringing precipitation chances.
Temperatures will still be above average in the 70s F however.
Temperatures are expected to wait until Sunday to decrease with
most locations in the 50s F. Precipitation chances are highest for
western mountains and foothills (70%) and lower for locations in
the east near the Dakotas border (40%). The chance for greater
than 0.25 inches of precipitation over the weekend is 30-70%
with chances decreasing from west to east. The chance for greater
than 6 inches of snowfall for the Absaroka/Beartooth and Crazy mountains
has lowered to 30-50% with the Bighorns now having a 10-20%
chance.

There is the potential for another system to impact the region
the middle of next week with an elongated positively tilted
trough. This is still highly uncertain at this time. Temperatures
Monday through Wednesday are expected to be fairly stable with
below average values generally in the 50s F. Torgerson


.AVIATION...

Strong high pressure aloft will bring widespread VFR and clear
skies over the next 24 hours. Occasional downslope wind gusts of
20 to 30 knots are expected along the western foothills (including
KLVM) today, with highest gusts in the morning. JKL

Additional note: The KMLS ASOS visibility sensor is giving
incorrect readings. Techs are working to resolve the issue at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 045/070 043/072 051/075 043/055 034/049 034/055
    0/U 00/U    01/U    03/W    65/W    32/W    22/W
LVM 072 038/071 039/075 046/068 033/049 026/047 027/053
    0/N 00/U    02/W    27/W    76/W    43/W    33/W
HDN 074 039/071 040/074 046/076 041/058 031/052 032/056
    0/U 00/U    01/U    03/W    75/W    32/W    21/B
MLS 072 041/073 043/077 050/077 044/058 033/053 036/061
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    54/W    21/B    21/B
4BQ 071 041/073 042/074 054/078 045/060 034/054 039/061
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/B    54/W    11/B    11/B
BHK 072 041/072 038/070 049/077 043/061 031/057 034/061
    0/U 00/U    01/N    11/B    43/W    21/U    21/B
SHR 073 038/073 038/075 046/077 037/057 028/054 031/060
    0/U 00/U    02/W    13/W    65/W    21/B    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings