760
FXUS65 KBYZ 110844
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
244 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
  Main threat is heavy rain and strong gusty wind.

- Weather system brings secondary push of more widespread showers,
  blustery winds, and cooler temperatures to the region tonight
  into Sunday.

- Moderate to heavy rain could impact burn scars.

- Heavy snow and windy conditions could create difficult
  backcountry conditions in the mountains.

- Frost/freeze for most areas Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...

One more day of above normal temps in the 70s to lower 80s,
warmest over the eastern plains. As upper trough to the west
pushes into the northern Rockies strong divergent southerly flow
will increase over our area. We may see some showers clip our
western zones (Park County) during the morning, but the afternoon
is when we expect to see a more aggressive push of convective
activity develop over the higher terrain of south central MT and
spread east/northeast into the plains through the latter part of
the day and into the evening. CAPE is only modest (250-500 J/kg)
and shear 30 kts or less, so any thunderstorms that develop are
expected to remain sub-severe, but strong gusty winds and heavy
rain are possible...and cannot rule out isolated tiny hail. While
this round of showers and thunderstorms impacts the western
portion of our CWA through the evening (60-90% coverage), far
eastern Montana will likely miss out on best forcing as the
showers and thunderstorms track too far north. Precipitation
looks to transition to more of a stratiform overnight. Moderate to
heavy pockets of rainfall are expected as an associated cold
front sweeps through. Very favorable jet dynamics/divergence aloft
will support strong ascent as upper trough becomes positively
tilted swinging across eastern MT late tonight through Sunday
morning.

By Sunday afternoon much of the precipitation will have lifted
to the northeast, and blustery winds will become the primary focus
across the plains behind a secondary push of colder air. The
strong CAA and pressure rises will result in NW winds gusting
25-35 mph for most locations, and even stronger along the Dakotas
border where higher hills could see gusts 40-50 mph. Precip will
linger in the mountains and foothills thanks to weak upslope and
westerly orographics. Melville foothills into Wheatland County
could see some light snowfall accumulations through the evening.
Highs on Sunday will be 20-30 degrees lower than today...with
readings in the 40s to around 50 degrees. We still expect a
frost/freeze for most locations Sunday night...though stubborn
stratus may prevent some areas from dropping quite that low.
(Billings 50%, Miles City 80%, Baker, Sheridan, Livingston 95%).

Weak upslope continues into the western foothills and nearby
plains early Monday with some flurries possibly lingering into
Melville, Livingston and Harlowton early. Cross sections suggest
a low stratus deck will be stubborn to diminish through the day
over the western CWA which will deter much of a warm up despite
building 500 mb heights. Highs on Monday may remain in the 40s to
lower 50s. Lows Monday night have a good chance of sub-32F temps
again as clouds clear out...especially in the western sections.

Precipitation and Snowfall...With proggs speeding up the passage
of the weather system the forecast precip amounts have dropped
some, but the chance of at least 0.50 inches of liquid is still in
the 40-80% range with greatest probabilities from Roundup to
Lodge Grass and also south of Big Timber. Greatest snow amounts
will still be above 8500 ft, but have dropped off with 4-8 inches
in the Beartooths/Absarokas, 2-4 inches in the Big Horns and
roughly 6-11 inches for the Crazies. We will keep the Winter Storm
Watch going for the Crazies for now as strong winds may still
produce difficult backcountry conditions, but if snow amounts
trend down any more a Winter Storm Warning would probably not be
deemed necessary.

Tuesday Through Friday...

Ensembles agree another powerful upper low will drop down along
the west coast early in the week leading to strong southerly flow
again across our region and possibly some light showers. This
upper low then shifts through the Rockies at midweek producing a
good fetch of moisture across our area. This will likely result in
an increasing chance of showers while high temps remain
seasonably cool in the 50s. There remains a good deal of
uncertainty in details though, so stay tuned if you have plans
for latter part of the work week. BT


.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to
east this afternoon and evening, as a large disturbance and
associated cold front move through the region. MVFR conditions
are possible with the showers/thunderstorms. Mountain snow and
obscurations will increase through this evening. Expect gusty NW
winds to accompany the cold front and last through Sunday. STP/PM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 041/049 031/048 031/049 034/053 038/053 037/058
    5/T +6/W    11/B    01/B    22/W    55/W    32/W
LVM 070 033/048 026/042 026/049 030/052 031/051 031/054
    8/T +6/W    32/S    12/W    33/W    55/W    33/W
HDN 080 040/050 029/052 029/051 031/055 035/054 034/059
    4/T +7/W    10/B    12/W    23/W    65/W    42/W
MLS 081 042/051 027/049 034/056 035/058 038/055 035/058
    0/B 87/W    00/U    11/B    22/W    44/W    32/W
4BQ 079 043/052 030/052 037/060 037/061 039/055 037/058
    0/B 57/W    00/U    01/B    22/W    44/W    21/B
BHK 080 041/052 023/049 032/055 033/058 036/054 033/056
    0/B 36/W    10/U    01/B    22/W    44/W    31/B
SHR 078 036/051 026/054 029/056 031/059 033/054 032/059
    1/B 87/W    00/U    12/W    23/W    56/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from this evening through Sunday
      evening FOR ZONE 68.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings