586
FXUS65 KBYZ 090920
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
220 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly warmer and dry conditions for most areas through the
  weekend.

- Weak disturbance brings rain/snow showers to the southern
  mountains and foothills Sunday.

- Periods of increased winds over the western foothills tonight
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday night...

High pressure over the region will maintain warm and dry
conditions for most of the area today. An upper low lifting out
of Colorado and into Nebraska brings a low chance (20% or less)
for rain across far southeast Carter County, with the probability
of 0.10 inches or more between 10-30%. Winds increase along the
western foothills tonight into Sunday, as pressure gradients
strengthen ahead of the next approaching shortwave. Wind gusts of
30-45 mph are possible at Livingston to Big Timber and Nye. Local
wind guidance gives the probability of exceeding 50 mph at around
40% currently.

The aforementioned shortwave and an associated cold front will
slide through the area Sunday into Sunday night bringing showers
to mainly the southern mountains (30-60% chance). In general,
0.10 inches or less of liquid precipitation can be expected
(probability of 0.10 inches is around 25% in the
Beartooth/Absarokas). Light snow accumulations of less than 2
inches are forecast for the mountains. Winds shift around to the
northeast behind the front.

High temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s can be expected today,
with slightly cooler conditions for Sunda. Low temperatures in
the upper 20s to 30s are forecast for tonight and Sunday night.
STP

Monday through Saturday...

Warm and dry conditions are in the forecast for Monday. During
this time, winds look to increase along the western foothills
around Livingston, Nye, and Big Timber with gusts in the 30-45 mph
range. As we get into Monday night, gap winds look to increase
around Livingston to Nye ahead of a Pacific cold front passage.
With this, the chance of seeing a 50 mph or greater gap wind gust
remains around 60 percent. Once the front moves through Monday
night into Tuesday morning, the gap wind threat will come to an
end. Across the rest of the region, westerly winds will increase
behind the front Tuesday with 20 to 40 mph wind gusts common over
the plains of southeastern Montana. From Big Timber to Harlowton,
winds may be a little stronger Tuesday with gusts to 50 mph
possible (50-60 percent chance).

Outside of winds, the chance of precipitation increases in the
west Monday night as the next weather system approaches. At this
time, the best chance of precipitation across the area comes
Tuesday morning when there is a 20 to 80 percent chance of
precipitation, highest over the mountains and lowest near Miles
City and Baker. The chance of precipitation decreases Tuesday
evening into early Wednesday morning as upper level ridging builds
back in. With this system, the wave looks to remain open with
little cold air. Therefore, precipitation amounts look to remain
relatively light. Over the lower elevations, there is a high
chance precipitation amounts remain below 0.20 inches. In the
mountains, a couple inches of snow is likely, but the chance of
seeing 6 or more inches of snow drops quickly outside of the
highest peaks of the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains (60 percent
chance).

Upper level ridging will bring warmer and dry conditions back to
the forecast for most Wednesday into Friday. The low amplitude
nature of the ridge may allow light snow showers to persist over
the western mountains during this time though (15-30 percent
chance). Another weather system is possible by next weekend, but
uncertainty remains. Arends

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Look for
winds to increase over the western foothills at KLVM and K6S0
tonight into Sunday morning. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 038/055 033/060 038/052 031/053 035/058 032/052
    0/U 01/E    00/B    24/R    10/U    00/B    11/B
LVM 061 034/053 031/058 031/047 026/049 032/053 028/049
    0/U 02/W    10/N    55/O    11/N    21/N    12/R
HDN 057 030/057 028/060 035/053 028/054 031/058 029/053
    0/U 02/W    10/B    25/R    10/U    00/B    11/B
MLS 057 029/058 027/058 035/054 031/053 031/056 030/053
    0/B 01/B    00/B    03/R    10/U    00/B    00/B
4BQ 057 032/058 029/059 036/053 031/052 032/058 030/055
    0/B 01/B    00/B    04/R    10/U    00/B    00/B
BHK 058 029/058 025/053 032/055 027/051 028/057 027/055
    0/B 00/B    00/B    02/R    10/U    00/B    00/B
SHR 059 031/058 028/061 032/052 024/053 028/059 027/054
    0/B 01/B    10/U    16/R    20/U    00/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings