150
FXUS65 KBYZ 041200
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
600 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will taper off early this morning from north to south. The
  commute could be impacted by slippery conditions this morning
  especially in the foothills south of Billings and in southeast
  MT near the MT/WY border.

- High confidence of building high pressure this weekend; expect
  warmer and dry conditions this weekend into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory will expire
at 6 AM MDT. Snow is tapering off. Any additional accumulation in
these areas (foothills, mountains, locations near MT/WY border)
will be less than one inch. Roads will be slippery from the
snowfall overnight. Please allow extra time to reach your
destination. RMS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday night...

A trough axis at 500 mb will swing southeastward across our area
this morning, and should be located from about southeast MT to
Sheridan County, WY by noon MDT. Southeast/ahead of this trough
axis, weak large-scale ascent with some modest enhancement from
700 mb frontogenesis should support additional light snow early
this morning, especially in areas favored during events when the
wind has a northerly component...so mainly areas near and south of
I-90 and in southeast MT. Additional snow amounts in these areas
should be light with generally less than one inch in most places
but 1-2 inches in the Beartooth, Red Lodge and Sheridan Foothills
and in southern Powder River and Carter Counties. Road conditions
will be slippery especially in the areas that receive the greater
snowfall amounts, though a few slick spots are possible outside of
these areas too.

As the 500 mb trough axis slides southeastward and exits the area
today, much of the snow will diminish by 6 AM MDT. However, there
will be enough instability within northwesterly 500 mb flow
behind the trough axis to produce isolated snow showers (15%
chance) in southeast MT, mainly east of Rosebud County, this
afternoon. These snow showers will only produce very light snow
amounts of a trace or so.

A 500 mb ridge will then dominate our weather from tonight
through this weekend with dry and increasingly warmer conditions.
Sky conditions should be mostly clear, as we should be lacking the
westerly flow in the upper levels that tends to facilitate a
cloud deck downstream of the mountains.

High temperatures will generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s
today then upper 40s to middle 50s Saturday. Low temperatures will
be in the 20s for most places tonight but teens in parts of
southeast MT, Park County MT and Sheridan County WY. Saturday
night will be a bit warmer, with low temperatures in the 20s and
30s. RMS

Sunday through Friday...

Throughout the weekend, and into the start of the work week, a
very high amplitude ridge will build in across the Western half of
North America in a quasi rex-block setup. Temps will rise well
above average with many parts of the CWA seeing highs in the 70`s
on Monday.

Tuesday there is a little shortwave that could move through the
area. There is some disagreement on timing and strength but there
is a decent chance for some thundershowers to develop, especially
over the eastern half of the CWA, with very good diffluence aloft
ahead of the trough. This does hinge on the timing of the
enhanced rising motion as if it arrives a little later Tuesday
night into Wednesday, the chances for convection are slim to none.
Regardless, another few inches of snow are possible for the
mountains across western parts of the CWA.

After the shortwave quickly exits, the prominent ridge takes back
over the entirety of the west. As a result, high temperatures
will rapidly rebound back to 15-20F above average for the
remainder of the work week.
WMR
&&

.AVIATION...

12z Discussion...

Precipitation continues to slowly exit to the south with most
sites now at VFR. Some site such as KSHR remain MVFR conditions
due to lingering -SN. Trends of the remaining snow tapering off is
expected to continue with all sites being dry by 14z. Some light
BR (MVFR at worst) may linger through 15z across the region as
well. As we move into the daytime hours winds briefly shift out of
the north before tapering off to light and variably by 00z.
Mountains will remain obscured through 00z. WMR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044 026/057 034/066 037/072 043/067 041/063 039/071
    2/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    24/W    33/W    11/B
LVM 041 022/054 031/062 036/069 039/061 038/057 036/070
    2/B 00/U    00/U    01/N    25/W    33/W    11/B
HDN 044 023/056 030/065 033/071 041/066 039/063 037/070
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    24/W    44/W    10/B
MLS 042 024/054 031/063 033/068 040/067 040/063 041/067
    2/S 00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    22/W    10/U
4BQ 039 023/052 030/061 032/065 040/064 040/062 041/066
    1/B 00/U    00/B    00/U    13/W    32/W    10/U
BHK 039 019/050 027/060 027/058 032/064 035/060 036/064
    2/S 00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W    10/U
SHR 039 017/051 026/061 029/070 036/063 035/060 033/068
    6/S 00/U    00/U    00/U    14/W    34/W    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings