792
FXUS65 KBYZ 092029
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
229 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stronger winds (gusts to 60 mph possible) along the western
  foothills tonight and Monday; cold front brings gusty northwest
  winds (gusts 40-50 mph) over eastern lower elevations Monday.

- Unsettled weather will return toward the end of the work week,
  leading to colder temperatures, potential for accumulating snow
  and gusty winds; details uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Monday night...

High cloudiness kept temps somewhat subdued this morning, but
temps have jumped into the 60s for many locations as clouds are
clearing from the west. Earlier this morning we pulled trigger on
wind advisory for Livingston/Nye foothills as observations were
pushing our criteria and pressure gradient was still rising. We
hit 59 mph at Livingston a few times this morning. Winds have
backed off a bit, but should re-intensify tonight as weak
inversion develops and 700 mb winds increase.

We have also upgraded the high wind watch from Big Timber to
Judith Gap to a High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 6 pm
Monday. Soundings suggest winds could pick up at Big Timber later
tonight in sync with the increase in 700mb winds. By Monday
morning this will likely get a hybrid event of gap flow and
mixing resulting in strong winds up to Harlowton as well, ahead
of the cold front that is progged to slide south into our area
just after the noon hour. Soundings suggest deep post frontal
mixing for an hour or two with gusts reaching 40 to 50 mph for
many locations...especially across east central Montana into the
Dakotas. There is a slight chance of isolated gusts pushing well
into the 50s. However, 850 mb wind proggs remain below 50kts (a
rule of thumb necessity for widespread high winds), and strongest
pressure falls track over NE Montana into the Dakotas. So we do
not expect widespread high winds to occur over the plains. That
said...it will likely be a rather brisk and windy afternoon with
highs initially in the upper 40s to and 50s, cooling behind the
frontal passage in the late afternoon.

Model cross sections show mid level moisture increasing with this
system...but low level moisture remains limited. Therefore,
despite strong frontogenesis tracking across the area, the lower
elevations may only see scattered rain showers (15-25% Pops)
tomorrow afternoon into the evening. However, there is a period of
decent lift over the higher foothills and mountains that may
result in some quick snowfall accumulations of an inch or two for
the high country.

Winds will die off after early evening as pressure rises fade.
Overnight lows will range from 30s west to upper teens and 20s
along the Dakota border.

Proabability for gusts to at least 50 mph Monday:
Livingston (100%), Billings (55%), Sheridan (35%), Miles City
(45%) and Baker (65%). Take precautions now and tie down any
loose items outdoors. Use caution or consider taking an alternate
route if traveling on I-90 or Hwy 191 through areas of
Livingston/Big Timber/Harlowton.

Fire Weather Issues: Fire weather indices with regard to dryness
and fuels are marginal in our east. However, over the border in
Harding County, South Dakota things have been much drier. Winds
may also be stronger in this area based on the path of pressure
rises and usual climatology. Fosberg Indices smack SE MT and NW SD
pretty hard. Therefore, in coordination with surrounding offices,
we have issued a Red Flag Warning for Fire Weather Zone 133 from
10 AM to 7 PM Monday. BT

Tuesday through Sunday...

Upper level ridging will persist Tuesday through Wednesday
morning, before an upper trough begins to move inland along the
West Coast. Above normal temperatures are forecast Tuesday through
Thursday with highs in the 50s to mid 60sF. Expect dry conditions
Tuesday into Wednesday, before the chance for precipitation
begins to increase over the western mountains Wednesday afternoon.

The aforementioned upper low brings uncertainties with it such as
the path, speed, and depth. Overall, there is higher certainty in
cooler and wetter conditions late this week and into the weekend,
as shown by ensembles and cluster analysis. A surface low over
the Pacific Northwest is depicted moving across Montana, Wednesday
and Thursday. The low will deepen concurrently with the upper low
moving across the southwestern US. Models show the two stacking
over the Midwest, Friday into Saturday. Precipitation will be all
snow in the mountains while lower elevations will likely start
with rain, Thursday, before transitioning to snow early Friday.
There remains uncertainty with total snow amounts, though light
accumulations across the area are in the current forecast. Higher
snowfall is possible along the foothills and north facing terrain.
An important note with this system is the potential for much
higher snowfall amounts in the far east. If the system wraps up
further north and west, into the High Plains, then places like
Baker and Ekalaka could see significant snow totals.

A transition period with brief ridging is shown by models next
Saturday, ahead of another potential Pacific trough to start the
following week. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s
and 40s, Friday and Saturday, and upper 30s to 50F next Sunday.

If you have travel plans our are caring for young livestock,
please monitor the forecast over the coming days.

Matos


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Expect gusty SW
winds to spread across the area, tonight through tomorrow. Gusts
in the 20s-30s knots area forecast tomorrow from KBIL and east.
For KLVM, gusts are in the 40-50 knot range right now, with an
increase to 50-55 kts expected this afternoon through tomorrow.
Around K6S0 and K3HT, gusts will increase to 35-50 knots overnight
and through tomorrow.

Matos
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/058 032/059 036/062 038/061 031/041 022/045 025/050
    02/W    20/B    01/B    13/R    66/S    12/S    23/O
LVM 037/048 032/051 035/053 036/050 025/035 019/039 024/042
    02/W    30/B    12/R    36/R    86/S    24/S    45/S
HDN 034/058 029/058 031/063 035/062 028/040 018/043 023/050
    02/W    20/B    00/B    12/R    67/S    22/S    22/R
MLS 038/055 027/056 032/061 036/062 028/035 015/036 016/043
    00/N    00/B    00/B    11/B    35/O    20/B    11/B
4BQ 036/059 030/058 032/062 036/063 030/037 018/037 019/047
    00/N    00/B    00/B    01/B    36/O    31/B    11/B
BHK 034/056 019/052 027/059 031/061 025/035 012/032 010/038
    00/N    00/B    00/B    00/B    26/O    41/B    11/B
SHR 031/058 024/055 028/059 030/060 025/036 015/039 018/048
    00/N    20/B    00/B    12/R    58/O    22/S    12/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT
      Monday FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
     Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM MDT Monday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday FOR
      ZONE 133.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings