123
FXUS65 KBYZ 280806
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
106 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny and Warm (Spring-like) through the weekend.

- Still some minor snowmelt and ice jam potential leading to
  localized flooding.

- A return to snow and cooler temperatures expected early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...

It will be dry and warm through Sunday night across the forecast
area. A back door cold front will drop S into the eastern zones
this morning, bringing an increase in cloud cover, but no
precipitation. Mixing will bring wind gusts in the 20s kt. High
temperatures will be in the 40s over the far E...with low to mid
50s elsewhere. Cancelled the Wind Advisory for KLVM/Beartooth
Foothills, since winds will continue to remain below criteria as
the pressure gradient weakens over the area. Another dry back
door front will push W into the E tonight with some patchy fog
possible. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy with lows in the 20s
and lower 30s. Dry weather continues through Saturday night as a
ridge of high pressure slides slowly E over the area. Highs will
reach the mid to upper 50s in most areas on Saturday. A weak cold
front drops S into the area on Sunday with a shift to northerly
winds. It will still be warm with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
The probability of reaching 60 degrees on Sunday was 50 to 70%
from KBIL E. Stronger front moves S into the area Sunday night
ahead of shortwave energy in Canada. Most models keep the area dry
for now, but will need to watch trends in case some PoPs are
needed. Will need to continue to watch for ice jams in this
prolonged warm spell. Arthur



Monday through Friday...

On Monday the ridging that has been keeping the area warm, dry,
and windy will begin to break down due to an approaching longwave
trough from the west. The ECMWF and GFS have recently come into
more agreement with regarding to the placement and timing of this
trough. Late Monday both models want to develop a surface low in
the lee of the Colorado Rockies. What is in much more disagreement
is the rate at which these models want to deepen this surface
low. The GFS has a much stronger system than the ECMWF does which
could aid in moisture transport into our CWA as well as increased
f-gen. Arguably the more important part of this system for our
CWA is a fairly potent shortwave that rides just behind the main
trough. This piece of energy moves in from the NW during the day
Tuesday which will aid in precip development across the area as
well as usher in pacific moisture with 700mb winds progged to be
out of the west at 20-30kts.

Overall, this event will be far more impactful
for the western mountains where the highest peaks could pick up a
foot over 48hrs. While measurable snow should fall across the
entire CWA totals in excess of an inch will likely be confined to
Rosebud Co. and points west.

This high amplitude active pattern has a high likelihood of
continuing into mid-March which will give us notable fluctuations in
temperatures as well as continued chances for precipitation.
WMR
&&

.AVIATION...

.09z Discussion...
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites throughout the period.
Winds in the western foothills (KLVM) will rapidly decrease after
10z. Gusty winds (25kts) are possible through 0z near the Dakotas
including at KBHK.
WMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 031/057 031/059 033/050 030/037 025/043 027/048
    0/B 00/U    00/U    03/R    86/S    21/B    12/S
LVM 050 032/056 030/057 032/046 026/033 022/041 024/042
    0/B 00/U    00/U    04/O    76/S    22/S    12/S
HDN 053 027/058 027/059 030/051 028/037 023/044 023/049
    0/B 00/U    00/U    03/R    87/S    21/B    12/O
MLS 050 028/053 028/056 030/050 028/036 023/041 023/046
    0/B 00/U    00/U    01/B    66/S    10/B    00/B
4BQ 050 028/056 030/059 031/052 029/034 023/040 024/046
    0/B 00/U    00/U    01/B    66/S    20/B    01/B
BHK 045 022/051 025/057 027/052 025/032 018/037 019/044
    0/U 00/B    00/U    01/B    66/S    10/B    00/B
SHR 051 027/056 028/058 029/050 023/033 016/039 018/043
    0/B 00/U    00/U    03/R    77/S    22/S    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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