976
FXUS65 KBYZ 170911
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
311 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frontal passage this evening will bring scattered showers and
  breezy conditions, with a rain/snow mix into the foothills and
  light snow accumulations in the mountains.

- Wind gusts 35-45 mph this afternoon across eastern MT with gusts
  40-50 mph for the western foothills this evening.

- Breezy conditions for the western foothills expected again
  Saturday into Sunday morning ahead of another cold front Sunday
  afternoon.

- Conditions turn warmer and dryer Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...

The low pressure system that brought showers to much of the region
is moving into the Dakotas with the lingering precipitation
expected to exit eastern MT through the early morning hours. With
decreasing pressure forecasted for central MT and increasing 700
mb winds to around 35 kts, a favorable pattern for gap winds is
expected. As 700 mb winds become more southwesterly this morning,
wind gusts of 35-45 mph can be expected for the Livingston, Nye
and Big Timber areas. Additionally, breezy conditions will be
present across the remainder of the region with the strongest
gusts of 35-45 mph across eastern MT. Into this evening, a
shortwave disturbance and associated frontal passage is expected
to pass through, bringing light precipitation to the plains as
well as a few inches of snow to the mountains and foothills (above
6,000 ft). Gusty northwest winds will be the main concern with
the strongest gusts along and just off of the western foothills.
Gusts 40-50 mph can be expected for these areas with gusts 30-40
mph for the remainder of the region. The best timing for this
frontal passage will be around 6 pm this evening for the west,
tracking southeast through the evening and overnight hours.

Ahead of the next system expected Sunday, another period of
gap winds will set up for the western foothills late Saturday
evening through Sunday morning. With stronger 700 mb winds present
in the models for this time frame, there is about a 60% chance for
gusts to 50 mph, with a 40% chance for gusts to 60 mph for the
Livingston and Nye areas. Precipitation with this system Sunday
into Monday look to favor the mountains and western foothills
with about a 50-70% chance of at least a quarter inch of liquid
precipitation. About 4-6 inches is forecasted for the highest
elevations of the Absaroka/Beartooths. Tuesday through the
remainder of the forecast period looks to be dry and slightly
warmer with northwest flow transitioning to ridging by the end of
the week.

High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with the cooler days
being days following a frontal passage (Saturday and Monday). TS

.AVIATION...

Upper level system will continue to shift east of the area early
this morning with precipitation exiting SE Montana around 12z. IFR
ceilings will continue east of Miles City to Broadus line through
15z before lifting. Gusty (20-40mph) westerly winds are already
developing along the western foothills and will spread eastward
mid morning continuing into the late afternoon hours. A Pacific
cold front will move into the area between 22z (west) and 03z
(east) bringing a chance of showers with gusty northwest winds
this evening. Scattered MVFR conditions are expected with shower
activity through Friday night. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 036/055 041/065 041/054 033/059 038/059 038/064
    1/N 50/U    03/W    42/W    00/B    11/B    10/B
LVM 060 028/053 036/060 031/051 027/059 030/058 033/063
    1/N 60/U    06/W    62/W    00/B    11/U    10/U
HDN 064 034/055 033/065 039/055 030/060 035/058 032/065
    1/U 61/U    03/W    62/W    00/U    11/B    10/B
MLS 060 036/053 033/063 039/053 030/059 038/058 034/064
    0/N 30/U    02/W    41/N    00/U    01/U    00/U
4BQ 059 036/051 033/066 040/052 031/059 037/056 035/064
    0/U 60/U    01/B    52/W    00/U    01/U    10/U
BHK 059 032/053 029/066 036/053 027/057 034/057 032/063
    0/N 20/N    01/B    41/N    00/U    00/B    00/U
SHR 062 030/051 028/069 031/053 026/061 032/058 030/066
    0/U 82/W    01/B    73/W    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings