688
FXUS65 KBYZ 100707
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
107 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect increased smoke concentrations over SE Montana this
  morning, with improvement expected this afternoon into this
  evening.

- Mostly dry with a warming trend (80s to mid 90s) through the
  middle of the week.

- A lot of uncertainty with what happens for the end of the week.
  Cool and unsettled is now just about equal chances with hot and
  dry. Stay tuned to the forecast for more clarity through the
  early week period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Monday Night...

Upper level low has moved well to the northeast of the area
this morning, but we are still under upper level troffing with
another vort centered over SW Wyoming. The flow around these two
features has become kinked over SW Montana producing more
divergence aloft than models had been advertising, resulting in
widely scattered light shower activity lingering over the western
half forecast area early this morning. This activity should
diminish before sunrise this morning, with flatter northwest flow
drying things out today. Another disturbance Monday will shift
winds to the north and bring a chance for afternoon/evening
showers, to at least the northern half of the forecast area,
though any precipitation that falls will be very light. The gusty
winds of the past few days have ended with much lighter winds
expected for the next few days.

Expect increased smoke concentrations over SE Montana this
morning, with improvement this afternoon into tonight.

Temperatures were in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees on
Saturday. Expect highs to be about 5 degrees warmer today (mid
80s) and another 5 degrees warmer for Monday (upper 80s to around
90). Lows will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Chambers

Tuesday through Friday...

Upper level ridging and downslope flow will prevail Tuesday into
Wednesday, with warm temperatures in the 90s and dry conditions.
The chance for precipitation is minimal, with the best chance
existing over the mountains.

Confidence in the extended forecast is low after Tuesday, with
models and ensembles depicting a more active pattern breaking the
ridge. Timing and placement of this system is not clear at this
time, and the affects from it range significantly. Some models
have a warmer (90s to 100F) and potentially stormy solution, while
other models have below normal temperatures (70sF). Continue to
monitor the forecast as the new week progresses.

Matos
&&

.AVIATION...

The breezy northwest winds will continue to decrease through the
evening hours today. Over eastern Montana, these winds have
allowed wildfire smoke to move into the area, reducing slant range
visibility, and even surface visibility at KBHK and KMLS. While
surface visibility reductions are expected to remain minor at this
time, there is a low, 10 percent chance KMLS and KBHK see
temporary reductions below 6SM through Sunday morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 085 061/088 059/091 062/097 062/089 058/085 060/090
    0/U 00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 082 052/086 051/090 055/094 054/089 050/086 051/088
    1/U 10/U    13/T    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 085 057/089 056/092 060/097 060/091 057/087 058/091
    1/U 00/U    00/U    10/U    10/U    21/U    11/U
MLS 084 059/086 059/088 063/095 063/088 060/084 060/089
    1/K 02/W    00/U    10/U    10/U    21/U    21/U
4BQ 081 061/087 059/087 064/094 065/090 062/086 062/089
    0/K 01/U    01/U    10/U    10/U    21/U    21/U
BHK 081 056/083 053/084 060/091 060/089 057/083 057/084
    1/K 02/T    00/U    10/U    20/U    21/U    21/U
SHR 080 055/086 054/090 057/094 059/091 055/087 056/089
    2/T 11/U    12/T    01/U    11/U    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings