131
FNUS51 KBUF 180205
FWFBUF

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Western New York
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1004 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.DISCUSSION...
A warm front will cross the Lower Lakes with a few showers tonight
into early Saturday. Mainly Dry and warm Saturday ahead of a complex
low pressure system and cold front that will bring a better chance
of showers and possibly some embedded rumbles of thunder Sunday into
Monday. A brief period of dry weather expected Monday afternoon into
Tuesday as high pressure noses in over the Lower Lakes. Active
weather then returns Tuesday night through Thursday with the
potential for lake enhanced rainfall.

NYZ201-180800-
Lake Ontario Plains-
1004 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

                              Tonight          Sat    Sat Night          Sun
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Pcldy        Pcldy        Pcldy
Precip Type                      None         None      Showers      Showers
Chance Precip (%)                   0            0           30           60
Chance of Thunder (%)               0            0            0            0
Min/Max Temp                       38           72           48           76
Max/Min Humidity (%)              100           36           94           44
AM Wind (mph)                                 S  5                 SE 11 G23
PM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var         S  6         S  6     S 14 G27
Precip Amount                    0.00         0.00         0.00         0.13
Precip Duration                                               1            2
Precip Begin                                               5 AM   Continuing
Precip End                                           Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)                        3230                      4010
Transport Wind (kts)            SW  4         S 12         S 13         S 28
Vent Rate (kt-ft)                   0        38760            0       112280
Dispersion Index                    0           39            0          112
Remarks...None.

$$

NYZ200-180800-
Southern Tier-
1004 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

                              Tonight          Sat    Sat Night          Sun
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Pcldy        Pcldy        Pcldy
Precip Type                   Showers         None      Showers      Showers
Chance Precip (%)                  50            0           30           70
Chance of Thunder (%)               0            0            0            0
Min/Max Temp                       41           71           50           72
Max/Min Humidity (%)               97           31           90           44
AM Wind (mph)                                 S  7                  S 12 G25
PM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var         S  8         S  8     S 14 G28
Precip Amount                    0.04         0.00         0.01         0.25
Precip Duration                     2                         1            6
Precip Begin                     9 PM                      5 AM   Continuing
Precip End                       6 AM                Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)                        3050                      5150
Transport Wind (kts)             W  3         S 14         S 13         S 30
Vent Rate (kt-ft)                   0        42700            0       154500
Dispersion Index                    0           43            0          154
Remarks...None.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the upper 40s.
.MONDAY...Showers. Highs in the upper 50s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the upper 50s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the lower 50s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 50s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the lower 50s.

WIND SUNDAY NIGHT...Southeast around 10 mph.
WIND MONDAY...South around 10 mph.
WIND TUESDAY...South 5 to 10 mph.
WIND WEDNESDAY...South around 10 mph.
WIND THURSDAY...West 5 to 10 mph.
WIND FRIDAY...South around 5 mph.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation near normal.

$$