434
FGUS71 KBUF 201728
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-271130-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
118 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

....ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH APRIL 3RD FOR THE BLACK
RIVER...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK ELSEWHERE...

This is the the sixth flood potential outlook of the 2025 season.
Flood outlooks and briefings will be issued every two weeks into
early spring to summarize basin conditions and to assess the
potential for flooding.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

The flood outlook risk is above normal through April 3rd for the
Black River and below average elsewhere.

With very warm temperatures over the past 10 days or so, most of
the snowpack has melted. An area of snow with significant snow water
does remain in the wooded areas of the southern Tug Hill - or the
upper Black River Basin.

River and creek flows average near to above normal this morning,
especially along the Black River Basin, where minor flooding occurred
over the last few days. However the Black River is receding.

The ground is mostly thawed except for portions of the Black River
Basin.

The following is a summary of the conditions at 11 a.m. Thursday
morning, March 20th:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........Up to 2 feet in wooded areas of the Tug Hill,
                     less than 6 inches elsewhere.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Up to 10 inches across wooded areas of the
                     Tug Hill, less than an inch elsewhere.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

Through April 3rd, the overall risk for flooding is below average,
with above average remaining in the Black River Basin.

While the Black River has receded to below flood stage, a significant
amount of snow water remains in the snowpack in some wooded areas of
the Tug Hill. This remaining snowpack is very ripe. There is still a
concern that snow melt and some precipitation on Sunday and Monday
(March 23rd and 24th) could result in rises along the Black River.

If there is no significant snow by April 3rd, this may be the last
Flood Potential Outlook for the 2025 season.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

This will be the final year this text product is issued. Starting in
2026 this information will be available online at:
www.weather.gov/buf

We would like to thank all the observers and agencies which have
helped gather data in support of this outlook.

$$

DPK