487
FGUS71 KBUF 091312
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-161315-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
812 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

....BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH JANUARY 23RD...

This is the first flood potential outlook of the 2025 season. Flood
outlooks and briefings will be issued every two weeks or as
needed into early spring to summarize basin conditions and to
assess the potential for flooding.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

Snow pack is below normal for the date, especially in the Buffalo
Area Creeks and Genesee River Basins. Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)
values average less than 50% of normal in the Buffalo Creeks and
Genesee River basins. SWE is slightly below normal in the Black
River Basin, with up to 4 inches across higher terrain. Snowpack
is quite dry, and will not run-off without several above freezing
days to ripen the snowpack.

River and creek flows average near normal. The ground is frozen
across the region, with frost depths up to about 8 inches. There`s
some shore ice on the Buffalo Creeks.

The following is a summary of the conditions at 7 a.m. Thursday
morning, January 9th:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........1 to 7 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than an inch.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........1 to 4 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than a half inch.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........6 to 14 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Around an inch.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........Less than 6 inches, 1.5-2.5 feet Tug Hill.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than a half inch, 2.5 to 4 inches Tug
Hill.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

Through January 23rd the overall risk for flooding is below normal.

Colder than normal temperatures are expected for the next two weeks,
which will result in primarily below freezing temperatures. This
generally cold weather pattern is unlikely to produce a significant
rain producing system or a prolonged warm up. Also, current snowpack
is slightly below normal and is dry and not prone to run-off without
a prolonged warm up. Although the flood risk is below normal, there
is a non-zero flood risk during the latter half of the outlook
period due to forecast uncertainty in that timeframe.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

We would like to thank all the observers and agencies which have
helped gather data in support of this outlook.

$$

Apffel