872
FGUS71 KBUF 061121
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-131130-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
621 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

....NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH MARCH 20TH...
This is the fifth flood potential outlook of the 2025 season. Flood
outlooks and briefings will be issued every two weeks into early
spring to summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for
flooding.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

The flood outlook risk is near normal through March 20th.

The last system melted lots of the snow pack, although there
remains a considerable amount of snow water equivalent (SWE) in
the Black River Basin. For most basins snow pack is now localized,
and generally averages below normal. SWE values still average 150
percent of normal in the Black River Basin.

River and creek flows average above normal this morning, with
several above action stage due to recent rainfall and snow melt.
Most of the ice has been flushed out of the Buffalo Creeks, and in
the Genesee and Allegheny river basins.

The ground is partially frozen across the region, with frost depths
averaging 2 to 14 inches, even though the surface has thawed in some
areas.

The following is a summary of the conditions at 6 a.m. Thursday
morning, March 6th:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........None, 4 to 8 headwaters.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None, 1 to 3 inches headwaters.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........Less than 2 inches
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than a half inch.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........1 to 5 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Up to 2 inches.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........6 to 18 inches, 2 to 3 feet Tug Hill.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 to 4 inches, 6 to 13 inches Tug Hill.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

Through March 20th the overall risk for flooding is near normal.

There are lingering risks for flooding today, mainly due to the risk
for ice jams and lowland flooding in the Black River Basin.
Elsewhere, flows are high but faster responding creeks have already
crested.

There will be another warming trend during the middle of next week,
but this could result in a beneficial slow snow melt since there
will be no rain with it.

Long range guidance suggests another strong low pressure system may
track to our west March 15th and 16th. This could bring widespread
rainfall and warm temperatures. The greatest risk for flooding would
be in the Black River basin where a deep and ripe snow pack
remains in place.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

This will be the final year this text product is issued. Starting in
2026 this information will be available online at:
www.weather.gov/buf

We would like to thank all the observers and agencies which have
helped gather data in support of this outlook.

$$

Apffel