021
FGUS71 KBUF 280200
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-070200-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
900 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025

....MAINLY NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH MARCH 6TH...
This is an update to the fourth flood potential outlook of the 2025
season. Flood outlooks and briefings will be issued every two weeks
into early spring to summarize basin conditions and to assess the
potential for flooding.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

The flood outlook risk is being updated due to a system which may
impact the area on March 5th and 6th.

A stretch of warm weather during the past few days has melted and
ripened the snow pack. However, a considerable amount of snow pack
and snow water equivalent (SWE) remains. SWE values are slightly
above normal for most basins, and still are 150 to 200 percent of
normal in the Black River Basin.

River and creek flows averaged near normal during the last few days.
Ice has begun to break up on Silver Creek, and in the headwaters of
some of the Buffalo area creeks. Ice is still thick on most of the
Buffalo area creeks and some rivers.

The ground is frozen across the region, with frost depths averaging
2 to 14 inches.

The following is a summary of the conditions at 7 a.m. Thursday
morning, February 27th:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........2 to 10 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Up to 3 inches.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........Up to 6 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Up to 1.5 inches.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........4 to 12 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 to 3 inches.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........6 to 18 inches, 2 to 4 feet Tug Hill.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 to 4 inches, 5 to 12 inches Tug Hill.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

Through March 6th the overall risk for flooding is near normal, but
the risk is above normal for the Buffalo Creeks due to the risk for
ice jams.

The main concern is a low pressure system that is expected to track
to our west on Wednesday. This has the potential to bring two warm
days with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s. The combination of
run-off from snow melt and rainfall amounts between a half inch and
an inch has the potential to result in flooding in the March 5th to
7th timeframe.

The primary concern is the risk for ice jams, especially in the
Buffalo area creeks which tend to be most vulnerable. However, ice
jams can occur anywhere, and may impact other areas with deep snow
pack.

There`s also a chance the rain and snow melt will cause river
flooding. This risk is generally 20 to 40 percent in the Buffalo
Creeks, Allegheny, and Genesee river basins. The risk is lower (10
to 20 percent) on the Black River basin where snow pack is less ripe.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

This will be the final year this text product is issued. Starting in
2026 this information will be available online at:
www.weather.gov/buf

We would like to thank all the observers and agencies which have
helped gather data in support of this outlook.

$$

Apffel