814
FGUS71 KBUF 061837
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-201630-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
140 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

....NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH FEBRUARY 20TH...
This is an update to the second flood potential outlook of the 2025
season. Flood outlooks and briefings will be issued every two weeks
into early spring to summarize basin conditions and to assess the
potential for flooding.

Due to cold weather and periodic lake snows, the snowpack now
averages near normal for most locations, and above normal across the
Tug Hill. The snowpack is quite compact, and would require a period
of warm weather before it is ripe enough to run-off.

River and creek flows currently average near to slightly below
normal. The ground is frozen across the region, with frost depths
averaging up to 16 inches. There`s moderately thick ice on the
Buffalo Creeks and on some rivers which has the potential to cause
ice jams if it breaks up. Lake Erie is mostly frozen.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

The following is a summary of the conditions at 7 a.m. Thursday,
February 6th:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........4 to 12 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 to 3 inches.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........Up to 8 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Up to 2 inches.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........1 to 5 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Up to 1 inch.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........12 to 18 inches, 1.5 to 3.5 feet Tug Hill.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....2 to 4 inches, 5 to 11 inches Tug Hill.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

Through February 20th the overall risk for flooding is near normal
for most of the area except the Finger Lakes, where below normal
flood risk is present.

Through Feb 20th, temperatures will primarily remain near to below
normal, with periodic lake snows. Temperatures over the next week
will remain mainly below freezing. After Feb 16th, temperatures and
precipitation type are in question. There are some indications of a
potenial warmup and rain event, however changes in the storm track
could result in cooler temperatures and frozen precipitation. Basins
with a 20 to 30 percent risk for flooding include the Buffalo
Creeks, Allegheny and Genesee River Basins, with a lower risk in the
Black River Basins.


...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

This will be the final year this text product is issued. Starting in
2026 this information will be available online at:
www.weather.gov/buf

We would like to thank all the observers and agencies which have
helped gather data in support of this outlook.

$$

Apffel