281
FXUS61 KBUF 040724
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
224 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The second of a pair of strong cold fronts will cross the
region through this morning, bringing snow showers and bands of
locally heavier lake enhanced snow. The lake snows are currently
northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario near Buffalo and
Watertown early this morning, will then move rapidly south
through the morning to areas southeast of both lakes. These
bands will produce light to locally moderate snow accumulations,
and gusty winds will also produce areas of blowing and drifting
snow. The coldest airmass of the winter season will arrive late
today through early Friday with wind chills dropping to at or
below zero tonight through early Friday morning. Mainly dry
weather will return by Friday as high pressure briefly builds
into the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KBUF & KTYX radars early this morning showing bands of snow
stretching northeast of Lake Erie & Ontario. Light to moderate snow
is falling within these bands. A strong cold front is dropping
southeast across Ontario and these bands of snow are developing
ahead of the frontal passage with the earlier southwest winds over
the lakes. Winds are starting to slowly shift more toward the west
allowing the bands to start to shift south some. Additional snow
showers are developing over the lakes ahead of the frontal passage
as well, but are more broad and lighter. The cold front is expected
to drop southeast across the area in the 9Z to 12Z timeframe early
this morning.

Today, snow is expected to the east of the lakes to start the day,
but then shift southeast of the lakes from west to east behind the
passing cold front. Early snow may be heavy for a brief time along
the cold front as it continues to cross the area soon after
daybreak. The axis of a sharp mid-level trough will cross the area
today and combined with the cold temperatures aloft, will continue
to support the lake response off of both lakes. The response of of
Lake Erie will weaken by the mid afternoon to more scattered snow
showers as any limited upstream connection to Lake Huron is
diminished with an incoming ridge and a drier airmass behind the
cold front. Off of Lake Ontario, the lake effect snow will linger
through the evening, but weakening during that time. With the longer
lake fetch of Lake Ontario and drier air and increased ridging a
little slower to build in, snowfall amounts will be greatest off of
Lake Ontario. Snow amounts of 2 to 5 inches will be possible for
areas east and southeast of Lake Erie, with the greatest totals over
the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Off of Lake Ontario, snowfall
will be heaviest east of the lake early before shifting southeast of
the lake through the day. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches is
expected for areas east and southeast of Lake Ontario, with locally
higher amounts possible for the Tug Hill. Behind the passing cold
front, strong CAA will usher in the coldest airmass of the season,
with temperatures dropping to and remaining in the mid 20s for most
areas. The CAA advection will also help to bring winds up some with
a decent LLJ of around 40 knots, resulting in wind gusts to as high
as 35 mph at times. Winds, combined with falling snow or previously
accumulated snowfall will result in blowing and drifting snow,
further reducing visibilities. With the snow amounts expected and
timing of some of the snow, Winter Weather Advisories remain in
place for portions of the area, details on those can be found below.

Tonight, any lingering lake effect snow will taper off through the
evening and into the overnight as ridging increases and drier air
filters into the region. Lake snows will taper off from west to
east, with snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario the slowest to
taper off. Any snow that lingers into the evening and overnight
should only amount to a coating to few tenths of an inch. Winds will
weaken this evening and into the overnight, resulting in any blowing
snow to end. With 850H temperatures expected to drop to the -17C to
-20C range, overnight lows in the single digits to single digits
below zero are expected across the area, which will be the coldest
temperatures experienced since last winter for most if not all
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will cross our region Friday and Friday night
with fair weather.

Saturday a cold front will bear down upon our region, this from a
Hudson Bay low. Southwest flow ahead of the front will bring weak
bands of lake effect snow, though by time convergent lift and cold
airmass organizes these bands, the better synoptic moisture will be
to the east, leaving the bands of snow weak.

Saturday night the cold front will drop across the Lakes, bringing
light snow across the region, while also enhancing the lake effect
snow some with better moisture, ascent and steeper lapse rates. Lake
effect snow will likely stay shy of advisory levels, except for east
of Lake Ontario where better lift ahead of a stalling cold front may
linger a band of snow over the Tug Hill.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday the aforementioned cold front will stall near our region,
with a weak wave upon the front, supported by an upstream shortwave
trough swinging across the eastern Great Lakes. This will support
light snow before a secondary trough pushes snow to the south and
east, while also ushering in a very cold airmass, with 850 hPa
temperatures dropping down into the mid negative teens. This will
support inland near zero, to below zero temperatures, and single
digits closer to the Lakes Sunday night into Monday morning.

Thereafter, an active northern jet, with several shortwaves rippling
across the Great Lakes and southern Canada through mid-week. Each
wave will support weak to moderate snowfall, and brief lake effect
snow...and model consensus has each related surface low filling as
it passes to our north, which will keep any high wind threat at bay.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mixture of IFR and MVFR flight conditions are present across
western and north-central NY this morning. A cold front will cross
the eastern Great Lakes through the first half of this morning. The
front will produce a few scattered snow showers and local/brief IFR.
More importantly the passing frontal boundary will continue to
encourage bands of locally heavier lake effect snow off both lakes.

Off Lake Erie, the earlier band of snow northeast of the lake
initially shifted south some, but another larger area of lake
enhanced snow is developing over the same area. As the cold front
approaches and crosses the area, the band of snow is expected to
move rapidly south into the higher terrain of the western Southern
Tier including KJHW this morning. The lake snow will then gradually
decrease in coverage and intensity across the western Southern Tier
today before ending this evening. This band of snow will produce a
few hours of IFR/LIFR conditions as it moves south across the area
this morning. Intensity of snow will back off today, with local
MVFR/IFR across the Southern Tier.

Off Lake Ontario, a band of snow has become organized over KART this
morning, stretching to KGTB. It will drift southeast crossing over
the Tug Hill Plateau and Oswego County just before daybreak this
morning. The band will then settle to the southeast corner of the
lake today from near KSDC to KSYR. This band will produce local
IFR/LIFR conditions this morning including KART and KGTB, with local
IFR/LIFR southeast of Lake Ontario today.

For KROC, the eastern end of the Lake Erie band may produce a very
brief period of IFR overnight, with Lake Ontario lake effect
potentially producing some IFR later this afternoon as the band
settles farther south.

Gusty winds in the 30-35 knot range will bring the potential for
blowing snow, causing reduced visibilities where snow is falling, or
has accumulated earlier in the day.

Tonight, any lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of the
lakes will taper off as ridging increases and drier air moves into
the region. Early MVFR conditions will improve to mainly VFR
starting around midnight and continuing through the rest of the
night.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Local IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
The second of a pair of cold fronts will cross the lower Great Lakes
through the first half of this morning. Gusty west-southwest winds
will persist ahead of the front early this morning, then veer to
west and northwest behind the front through the day today, producing
a round of high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-
     005.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock/SW
MARINE...Hitchcock