Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
837 FXUS61 KBUF 081730 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 130 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy skies will continue through the remainder of Tuesday with light rain showers across the Finger Lakes region. Drier weather expected Wednesday ahead of the next chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Latest satellite imagery shows cloud skies across much of western and north central NY with lingering low-level moisture behind yesterday`s frontal passage. A few light rain showers remain across the Finger Lakes region early this afternoon. Latest observations highlight broad convergence in southern Allegany Co closer to the stalled frontal boundary to our south that could initiate a storm later this afternoon, but otherwise conditions should remain dry as high pressure continues to slide in from the west. Wednesday looks to start off dry, but that high pressure will quickly slide off to the east as a shortwave passes across the Ohio Valley eastward the Mid- Atlantic. The bulk of the moisture with this system will remain well to the south of the CWA, but a few isolated showers will be possible (15-25%) Wednesday afternoon with the troughing pattern extending north through the Great Lakes to a mid-level low in Ontario. Lake breeze circulations could initiate a few isolated storms southeast of Lake Erie, but latest CAMs remain relatively quiet through Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Headed into Wednesday night, a 500mb low slowly traversing eastward just north of the Great Lakes will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms to western NY through early Thursday. Greatest precipitation coverage will be closer to the better forcing with the upper low from the Niagara Frontier across Lake Ontario and over towards the north country. MUCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg will be available, however, flow appears to generally be weak limiting severe potential at this time. Headed towards daybreak Thursday, effective shear with mostly unidirectional flow looks to be maximized near 30 kt in north-central NY so this area does highlight the best chance for a stronger storm to develop with gusty outflow winds. Chance (25-35%) of showers and storms will remaining throughout much of the day as the upper low slowly propagates to the northeast and potentially leads to another weak shortwave passage across the lower Great Lakes. High pressure briefly slides in Thursday night with a relatively short period of drier weather headed into Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NAEFS ensemble mean 500-hpa shows weak ridging across the region Friday through Saturday. Surface high pressure should move into the region Friday through Friday night and dry weather is anticipated. A mid-level trough across the Northern Plains/Mid-West will slowly approach the region through the weekend. An associated surface low will likely move across the Upper Great Lakes while a warm front ushers in warmer air and moisture and the potential for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday. The speed of the next airmass building into the region is uncertain which leads to low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms into the next work week. Above average temperatures are anticipated this weekend which could lead to uncomfortable heat indices. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid to low-level clouds remain over much of western and north- central NY early this afternoon with most area terminals at MVFR conditions. While visibility has improved at KJHW from morning fog, ceilings still remain below 1000 ft. Gradual improvement should continue through the afternoon and this evening with VFR conditions eventually prevailing. Patchy valley fog looks to develop after 06z across the Southern Tier that will continuing into Wednesday morning. Outlook... Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday night into Thursday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday and Sunday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. && .MARINE... Generally light winds and sub-advisory conditions over Lakes Erie and Ontario today and then expected to continue through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to pass through the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning that could lead to gusty winds and choppy conditions. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Brothers NEAR TERM...Brothers SHORT TERM...Brothers LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...Brothers MARINE...Brothers