068
FXUS61 KBUF 151802
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
202 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will maintain fair weather tonight. Heat and
humidity will build Wednesday and Thursday and it will also
turn more unsettled with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected, with locally heavy rainfall
possible. Drier weather should return by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will drift to our east tonight while continuing to
provide fair weather. It will be a warm night with lows ranging from
the 60s across the interior Southern Tier and North Country to the
lower 70s across the lake plains.

Heat and humidity build Wednesday. Temperatures along the Lake
Ontario plain, Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes around
90F or bit higher, combined with increased humidity should get
maximum heat indices into the mid to possibly upper 90s. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for these areas. Shortwave advancing
into the region will increase the potential for convection,
especially during peak heating. Severe threat looks to be
limited in an unfavorable shear environment, with the main
threat being the potential for locally heavy rainfall with
precipitable water values nearing 2 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Convection lingering into Wednesday night, but coverage should
lessen through the night. It will be muggy with most overnight
temperatures remaining in the 70s.

Cold front advances into the region Thursday. Another round
convection expected, especially during the afternoon/evening.
Main threat looks to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall
in a very moist environment ahead of the front. Front shifts
southeast of the area Thursday night, lessening chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Friday should be quite a bit cooler with comfortable humidity
levels. Some morning cloud cover possible, but overall should
have a good amount of sunshine. Temperatures should be some
10-15 degree cooler with highs mainly in the 70s. High pressure
builds overhead Friday night with clear skies and lows in the
50s, with lower 60s closer to the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure overhead Saturday is advertised to gradually
exits off to our east but will continue to provide dry weather
across the Lower Lakes. Zonal flow aloft will then direct the next
shortwave east towards the Lower Lakes on Sunday, with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns for the
start the new work week promoting largely dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR through tonight. FEW040-060 will dissipate early this
evening leaving some patchy cirrus level clouds. Fog potential
looks limited, with low confidence of some Southern Tier valley
fog late tonight. Some lingering wildfire smoke may lead to
some 5-6SM in haze this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...Localized restrictions likely in scattered
to numerous afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

Friday and Saturday...VFR. Some early morning fog possible.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue across the lower Great Lakes through
tonight with light/variable winds.

A modest southerly flow will then develop following the passage of a
warm front Wednesday, but wind speeds should remain below 10 knots.
There will a risk of a few thunderstorms Wednesday, with locally
higher winds and waves.

The next chance for somewhat stronger winds will be Thursday
following a passing cold front, with southwesterly winds picking up
to 10-15 knots and waves building into the 2-3 foot range at times.
There will also be a potential for thunderstorms and associated
locally higher winds and waves during this time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>007-
     010>012-019-020-085.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ001>007-
     013-014.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ008-013-
     014-021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA