732
FXUS61 KBUF 192045
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
445 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over eastern Quebec will extend southeastward
across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday night. While this will
continue to favor fair warm weather...a mid level disturbance may
generate some showers over the western counties on Saturday. Looking
further down the road...cooler and more widespread unsettled weather
will finally return to the region for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
While there will be a couple stray sprinkles or very light showers
across Chautauqua county into early this evening...high pressure
centered over eastern Quebec will extend to the southeast across our
region through Friday night. This will all but guarantee continued
fair warm weather...as daytime max temps will continue to average
within a degree or two of 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heading into Saturday, a broad mid-level trough will lie across much
of the western two-thirds of the CONUS, while a ridge continues to
lie across the Northeast. With the aforementioned trough, a
shortwave trough will be in the midst pivoting northeast across the
western and central Great Lakes. With this the surface ridge in
place across the Northeast throughout much of the week will weaken
some Saturday and allow for some precipitation and afternoon
thunderstorms to drop southeast across western New York. While it
doesn`t look like a complete wash out, expect a few hundredths
across the Niagara Frontier with the best location for rain across
the southern Tier with a little over a tenth of an inch possible.

Surface high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will then drop
southeast across the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes Sunday,
supporting one more day of dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The pattern becomes more amplified next week with the eastern Great
Lakes region under southwest flow between a trough centered across
the Upper Mid-West and a ridge over New England. Unsettled weather
is possible as moisture increases across the forecast area.

The upper level ridge axis will shift eastward while a shortwave
trough moves across the Upper Mid-West region Monday. There is low
confidence in the place of low pressure ahead of the trough, however
a southwest flow will likely increase moisture across the region
Monday into Monday night. Shower chances increase from west to east
by late Monday across western NY and across the entire region Monday
night. Details become fuzzy Tuesday and on as certainty lowers with
the evolution of another shortwave trough and the duration of a dry
slot between systems. Looking at the ensemble means of the large
scale pattern, the main trough should stay to the west of the
forecast area, opening the door to increasing moisture and other
organized systems moving from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great
Lakes region. Low to medium chances for showers continue Tuesday
through Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible if favorable
conditions come together.

Temperatures remain slightly above normal next week with highs
averaging in the low 70s across the lake plains to the upper 60s
across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions with light winds will persist through Friday. As has
been the case for the past week or so...the exception to this will
be across the western Southern Tier where early morning valley fog
will support MVFR to IFR vsbys for a few hours at sites like KJHW
and KELZ. There will also be some early morning fog on Friday at
KART.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers over the western counties.
Sunday...VFR, except for patchy early morning fog across the
Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.
Monday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers over the western counties.
Tuesday...VFR to MVFR with scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will largely remain in control through the first half
of the weekend...though a weakening disturbance could produce some
scattered showers across eastern Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario
on Saturday.

Winds through this time will generally be light to modest with
minimal wave action...with northerly to northeasterly winds much of
the time through Friday followed by northeasterlies to easterlies on
Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JJR