265
FXUS61 KBUF 061458
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1058 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak surface high pressure will generate light northwesterly winds
through tonight, while maintaining dry weather across northern
zones, though a passing light rain or snow showers will remain
possible across the Southern Tier near a stalled frontal boundary.
Another cold front will pass across the region Monday, with
precipitation possibly starting as rain, though quickly changing to
accumulating snow. This system will produce a coating of snow Monday
night and Tuesday morning, though higher terrain east of Lake Erie
will accumulate an inch or two, and higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario will accumulate several inches of snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Any lingering light rain/snow showers across the southern
portions of the region will taper off through the late morning
as surface high pressure builds in from the west. As a result,
expect dry weather for much of afternoon and tonight, though a
light snow showers could sneak north of the border into the
Southern Tier. Cold air advection today will support highs and
lows today/tonight to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

A second cold front will cross the Great Lakes Monday, entering the
lower lakes late Monday. While temperature will remain on the cooler
side, due to the higher sun angle Monday afternoon, will initially
support some rain showers, however colder air advecting into the
region and a setting sun, will quickly support a mix of rain and
snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A very robust shortwave diving south from Nunavut will cross
Manitoba today and be the driving force for carving out an
anomalously deep longwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes and
Northeast for the first half of the week. This once in a 20 year
pattern for early April will support a compact storm system that
will very likely generate some post-season accumulating snow over
parts of our forecast area along with temperatures that will be more
typical of early to mid February rather than those heading into
Easter. Fortunately...this rude flashback to the winter season will
be short lived...as temperatures will quickly rebound for the second
half of the week. The details...

A 100kt H25 jet racing into a deepening longwave trough over eastern
Canada Monday night will complete the development of a vertically
stacked storm system in the vicinity of the Ottawa valley (Ontario/
Quebec border). An associated cold front will still be in the
process of plowing through our region during this time period with
most areas likely receiving at least a coating of snow in the
process. Very cold air (H85 minus teens C) pouring across the...now
mainly ice free...lakes in its wake will support some lake snow
showers over our region. While drying in the mid levels will limit
additional snow from an activated lake...a couple inches of
accumulation will be possible east of Lake Ontario within the deeper
synoptic moisture and orographic processes. Temperatures will tumble
into the 20s with a gusty west wind to 30 mph generating wind chills
by daybreak in the single digits and teens.

Tuesday then promises to be brisk and cold...as the stacked storm
system will exit across the St Lawrence valley to Maine. H85 temps
averaging -15c...close to records for the date...will only allow max
temps that afternoon to reach into the low to mid 30s for the more
populated lower elevations...while the hilltops are not forecast to
climb out of the 20s. These readings will be a solid 20 degrees
below normal values. Winds gusting to 35 mph will keep wind chills
at notable levels...in the teens and 20s. Meanwhile...just about
everyone should experience scattered snow showers...although
accumulations will generally only range from a dusting to an inch. A
couple inches will be possible in the vcnty of the Chautauqua ridge
but the highest amounts will again be east of Lake Ontario where...
despite a relatively high sun angle...wrap around synoptic moisture
could allow for as much as 2 to 4 inches.

The axis of a large sfc high centered over the Ohio valley Tuesday
night will cross the Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region on
Wednesday. While this will promote fair dry weather for the bulk of
our forecast area...there will be some lingering lake snow showers
southeast of Lake Ontario into Wednesday morning. Additional snow
accumulations will be under an inch.

A relatively weak area of low pressure in the vcnty of Illinois/
Indiana will approach our region Wednesday night. Isentropic lift
ahead of this feature could generate a mix of light rain or snow
over the far western counties towards daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The unusually deep/cold upper level trough over eastern Canada will
finally slide east and out to sea on Thursday...only to be replaced
by another amplifying trough dropping southeastward out of central
Canada and the northern Plains States...with this next feature
eventually taking up residence over the eastern third of the CONUS
by Friday/Saturday. While this next trough will be nowhere near as
cold as its predecessor...it will still bring us our next round of
unsettled weather...with its attendant surface low initially
approaching our region Thursday before slowly elongating and making
its way east either to...or offshore of the Atlantic coastline
through the remainder of the period. While model differences persist
with respect to the exact strength...track...and timing of this
low...there is enough agreement amongst the main guidance packages
to support a period of higher-end chance PoPs (pcpn probabilities of
40-50 percent) Thursday into Friday...with precip chances then
lowering some for the end of the period as the axis of the system
tries to pull further east. Associated thermal fields currently
suggest that much of the precipitation from this system should be in
the form of just plain rain...with perhaps some wet snow mixed in at
the onset early Thursday. Otherwise...temperatures will rebound from
the unseasonably chilly conditions of the preceding couple of days
back to much more normal levels for mid-April.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Currently across the region, radar is depicting scattered rain
showers exiting western and north central New York due to a wave of
low pressure riding northward along a passing cold front. These
showers will continue to gradually taper off from northwest to
southeast this morning. Ahead of the boundary, mainly IFR and LIFR
due to low CIGS and fog will impact portions of WNY and the Genesee
Valley south of KIAG, KBUF, and KROC. IFR/LIFR conditions will
gradually improve throughout the rest of this morning. Meanwhile
conditions will remain MVFR in and around KART this morning with the
higher terrain remaining IFR and below, although rain showers will
taper off from northwest to southeast early this morning. There is
the chance that lingering any light rain showers behind the cold
front mix with some wet snow late tonight into the first part of
Sunday morning as colder air filters in, but should be little if any
impact and mainly confined to the higher terrain.

High pressure will build in today with all TAF sites improving to
VFR throughout the day. Exception will be across the interior higher
terrain areas early, with any lingering flight restrictions quickly
improving to VFR by mid morning.


Outlook...

Monday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR late in rain and snow showers.
Monday night through Tuesday...MVFR/IFR in occasional snow showers.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Thursday...MVFR, possibly IFR with the chance for showers/rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk northwest winds will Small Craft Advisories on Lake Ontario
today through this evening. Meanwhile, moderate northwesterly on
Lake Erie will weaken and back to southwesterly throughout the day
today.

Surface high pressure overhead tonight will support a light breeze
with negligible waves across Lakes Erie and Ontario through much of
Monday.

An incoming surface cold front will increase winds and waves late
Monday, supporting the next chance of prolonged Small Craft Advisory
conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...JJR/RSH
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ