762
FXUS61 KBUF 162335
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
735 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad closed low over the Upper Midwest will gradually cross the
Great Lakes through the weekend, resulting in several opportunities
for showers and thunderstorms through at least Saturday night. Much
cooler and generally drier weather behind this system expected to
last through the first half of next week before becoming unsettled
again by later Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The remnants of the earlier passing front will shift north across
the area tonight as a weak warm front, and as a weak sfc low tracks
northeast across the Ohio Valley and into Ontario. This will
increase the potential for showers and some thunderstorms tonight
into Saturday morning. There will be a break for a few hours before
the main cold front associated with the large occluded system in the
Midwest tracks through the area. With this frontal boundary,
additional showers and thunderstorms are expected along and just
ahead of the front from mid-morning through mid-afternoon from west
to east. Shear profiles look a little stronger along with some
instability ahead of the front. This will increase the chance for
some strong to severe thunderstorms, especially for the eastern half
of the forecast area.

Temperatures on Saturday warm to the upper 60s to mid 70s ahead of
the cold front and quickly drop by around 10 degrees within a few
hours behind the frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler with chances for showers Sunday, especially east of Lake
Ontario. Further west, spotty showers and drizzle Sunday morning then
drier weather will eventually take over as the closed low exits off
to our east. That said...given some lingering low-level moisture in
concert with a fairly chilly airmass overhead it`s likely we won`t
see much clearing until late in the day. It will also be breezy with
winds gusting up to 30 mph at times. Highs on Sunday will be in the
50s to low 60s.

Low pressure continues to pull away Sunday night with any lingering
showers ending across the region. We should see skies begin to clear
from west to east and winds will also to lessen. Lows in the 40s,
with a few isolated spots dipping back into the 30s east of Lake
Ontario.

Dry quiet weather expected Monday as high pressure wedges in across
the Lower Lakes. Highs peaking in the 50s to low 60s. Clear skies
anticipated Monday night and chilly with light winds overnight. Will
need to monitor the potential for FROST. Lows will be found in the
30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair dry weather Tuesday as the narrow ridge of high pressure
remains over the Lower Lakes.

Unsettled weather returns Wednesday and Thursday with multiple
shortwaves collecting to form another closed low over the Great
Lakes, with cool showery weather through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR flight conditions through this evening. Periods of MVFR
and brief IFR CIGs will be possible as showers with a few
thunderstorms track across the area from southwest to northeast,
mainly after midnight. The best chance for brief IFR conditions will
occur within showers over the higher terrain.

Saturday, earlier showers should clear northeast of the North
Country during the first few hour of daylight, with mainly VFR
conditions expected after earlier showers end. Another area of
showers and thunderstorms will develop over WNY and track east as a
cold front approaches during the mid-morning hours (~14Z). Locally
moderate to heavy downpours will be possible as the showers and
thunderstorms move through the forecast area from mid-morning
through mid-afternoon, especially for the eastern portions of the
area where slightly later timing will allow for some better daytime
heating and instability. MVFR CIGs and VSBY can be expected within
the showers and behind the front as low level moisture persists.
Brief reductions to IFR for CIGs and VSBY may be possible within the
heavier showers/storms. There may be gusty winds with some of the
thunderstorms that develop.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers east of KROC.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...some restrictions possible with showers in the area.

&&

.MARINE...
A pair of frontal boundaries will bring the risk for thunderstorms
tonight, with a drying trend first across Lake Erie late Saturday
morning, with Lake Ontario to follow Saturday afternoon through
Sunday. Southwest winds on both lakes are expected to increase by
Saturday afternoon with SCA conditions likely on both lakes through
at least a portion of Sunday, with the east end of Lake Ontario
possibly lasting into Sunday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PP/TMA
NEAR TERM...SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR/Thomas
AVIATION...SW/TMA
MARINE...PP/TMA