196
FXUS61 KBUF 052347
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
747 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the Great
Lakes and New England through the rest of the week. This will
support an extended period of mainly dry weather, although there may
be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon with
sparse coverage. Temperatures will continue to run above average,
although humidity levels will remain moderate.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong high pressure will remain centered over Quebec through
tonight, with seasonable and mostly dry weather prevailing as a
result. The broad scale subsidence will also keep a plume of
Canadian wildfire smoke trapped aloft and near the surface at times.
This will lead to hazy skies and possibly some modest reductions in
sfc visibilities.

Wednesday, the center of the sfc high will very slowly migrate
across the St. Lawrence Valley towards Maine and New Brunswick as a
diffuse lingering frontal boundary hangs over the forecast area. The
resulting subtle southeasterly shift in the low/mid level flow may
circulate some additional moisture over the Ohio Valley into the
forecast area to fuel a modest increase in shower/tstorm activity
during peak heating tomorrow afternoon. With otherwise weak synoptic
forcing and lack of any notable jet features to drive convection,
overall coverage of precip remains somewhat uncertain though overall
chances are highest across the Eastern Lake Ontario region south of
the St. Lawrence Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure across far eastern Canada Wednesday night will
weaken as it slowly moves southeast and off the east coast by Friday
night. Overall, this will maintain mostly dry and warm conditions
across western and north-central NY. Looking at some finer details,
a washed out frontal boundary/moisture axis will remain across the
Eastern Lake Ontario region and may result in a few showers and
thunderstorms, mainly on the higher terrain Thursday afternoon
through early evening. Elsewhere, subsidence and dry air will result
in mostly dry weather. Although the probability is very low,
diurnally-driven showers and storms across western Lake Erie and
Ohio may reach the western Southern Tier Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures remain above normal for early August, with high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s and low temperatures in the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The pattern becomes more amplified over the central and eastern
CONUS this weekend. An upper level ridge will build northward across
the Great Lakes region Saturday then strengthen as it moves over the
Northeast Sunday. Meanwhile a Pacific-based trough moves across the
Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. The combination of the ridge
overhead and surface low pressure along the east coast will result
in continued warmth and dry weather conditions across the forecast
area. Humidity levels will creep up with heat indicies reaching
close to 90F.

We become situated on the western fringe of the upper level ridge
Monday through Tuesday. Additional moisture will likely funnel into
the Great Lakes region increasing warmth and humidity. A cold front
ahead of an upper level trough will approach the forecast area. The
chance for showers and storms will increase during this period, with
the hope of some much needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong high pressure over Quebec will allow mostly dry VFR weather
to prevail through tonight. Wildfire smoke trapped within this
somewhat stagnant airmass will produce areas of haze with minor vsby
restrictions to MVFR at times.

Some patchy IFR river valley fog will develop in the Southern Tier
again tonight with impacts at KJHW possible.

Coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms is expected to be
greater tomorrow as additional moisture circulates northward into
the region. Showers or a thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out
at any one of the TAF sites.

Outlook...

Thursday...Mainly VFR. A small chance of showers and thunderstorms
east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Localized fog and IFR possible across
the river valleys of the Southern Tier.

Friday through Sunday...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds generally 10-15kts will produce choppy conditions on
Lake Ontario at times through Wednesday. On the backside of a
diffuse cold front winds may be locally higher along the
southwestern shoreline of Lake Ontario (15-20kt range), though these
should subside through the evening.

Lighter winds will return Thursday with a more southerly
component through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     NYZ001>007-010>014-019>021-085.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP