743
FXUS61 KBUF 010012
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
712 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder air will move back into the region tonight, with a brief
period of lake effect snow and minor accumulations east and
southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Lake effect snow will end
by Monday morning as high pressure builds into the eastern Great
Lakes. Another low pressure system will then pass south of the area
later Monday night and Tuesday, with widespread light snow and minor
accumulations expected across most of the region. Below average
temperatures and daily snow chances will continue through the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect will continue through tonight behind this afternoon`s
cold front, though an approaching mid-level trough axis will ensure
a quickly veering wind regime. The setup is also brief, with dry air
and subsidence rapidly arriving late tonight and Monday morning as
high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes. Isolated wind
gusts to 45mph will continue to be possible this evening across WNY
until sfc winds become northwesterly, though a general downward
trend is expected through the rest of the night.

Off Lake Erie...

A band of moderate to heavy snow east-northeast of the lake
continues to march southward to the western Southern Tier this
evening, only lasting for an hour or two at any given location.
Precipitation type is all snow, but the rapid southward movement
will limit accumulations to an inch or two for lower elevations.
Decent snowfall rates combined with previous rains washing away any
antecedent road treatments will still lead to slick and hazardous
travel conditions. Totals closer to 2-3" will be possible for
the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and well south of Buffalo,
while a few locations along the Chautauqua Ridge may pick up
close to 4", especially in southwest Chautauqua County.

Off Lake Ontario...

Initial band development northeast of the Lake over Jefferson County
this evening will sweep rapidly south across the Tug Hill region
overnight. This will produce another 1-3" of accumulation inland
from the immediate Lake Ontario shore, highest across the Tug Hill
Plateau.

Another band of snow from Georgian Bay will briefly develop
southeast of Lake Ontario tonight, with the most likely band
location stretching from between BUF/ROC southeastward into the
western Finger Lakes. This will produce localized dusting to 1"
accumulations.

All of the lake effect will quickly end early Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area, with dry weather for the rest of the
day and rapidly diminishing winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Though not as aligned as one would like to see, models are showing a
somewhat better consensus on the track of a large coastal low that
will impact the lower Great Lakes and Northeast Monday night through
Tuesday night, with impacts to our area mainly confined to the
second half of Monday night through the first half Tuesday.

Developing area of low pressure will move from the Gulf coast into
the Carolinas Monday night, then continue to deepen while exiting
northeast off the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Coastal low will
strengthen further (possibly bombing out) Tuesday night while moving
northeast off the New England coast...just exactly how close to
coast is still somewhat in question. That said, confidence is
growing that this system will stay just far enough south and east of
western and northcentral NY to spare our area from the heaviest
snows, although accumulating snows are likely, with the greatest
potential for near advisory (>= 4") amounts across our southeastern
areas. As mentioned above, main timeframe for accumulating snowfall
will be the second half of Monday night through the first half of
Tuesday, with impacts possible for the Tuesday morning commute.

As the coast low pulls away, our attention will turn to a strong
cold front moving through the upper Great Lakes later Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Winds will back from northwest to southwest Tuesday
night through Wednesday, with the potential for a weak band of lake
effect snow to sweep from south to north off both lakes later
Tuesday night through the day Wednesday with only minor
accumulations expected with the transient nature of the bands and
also being within a weak WAA pattern ahead of the approaching cold
front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong cold front plows across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday night
ushering in much colder air along with a round of mainly light
snows, although some moderate lake enhanced snows will be possible
east and northeast of the lakes. Winds will veer west and northwest
Thursday with west-northwest to northwest flow lake effect snow
showers east and southeast of the lakes Thursday, tending to weaken
through the afternoon as high pressure approaches from the west.

High pressure will slide over or just south of the region Thursday
night, then southeast of the area on Friday bringing a period of
mainly dry weather to finish out the work week. There may be a
period of localized light lake effect snow showers sweeping from
south to north Thursday night off both lakes as winds back with
respect to the center of the high.

Dry weather may persist into the start of Friday night as high
pressure departs east off the Atlantic Coast. Otherwise, model
guidance continues to diverge on the timing, track, and strength of
a couple systems that will likely impact the region in some form
over the weekend. Thus, will maintain the Chc to low-end Lkly PoPS
advertised by the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Post-frontal lake effect snow will continue downwind of both lakes
through much of the overnight hours with localized IFR/LIFR
conditions. As a mid-level trough axis crosses the region through
the evening, winds will turn northwesterly and quickly shunt the
main lake effect bands southward. This will first occur off Lake
Erie, where the band is already moving south of KBUF as of about
00z. The Lake Ontario band, which is currently still a mix of rain
and snow, will gradually changeover to all snow and move south of
KART by 05z. Thereafter, the bands will mainly impact the western
Southern Tier (KJHW) and around KFZY northward to the Tug Hill
respectively. An upstream connection to Georgian Bay will likely
develop overnight, with a tertiary area of lake effect snow
impacting the region between KROC and KBUF (such as near KGVQ).
MVFR/IFR conditions will remain possible within the lake effect
areas, though the lake response weaken overnight especially after
06z, with IFR becoming less common. A mix of low VFR/MVFR cigs and
VFR vsbys will prevail outside the lake effect areas.

Wind gust magnitudes should also continue to trend downward
overnight, though another 1-2 hour period of 30-40kt gusts may be
possible across WNY as winds shift northwesterly.

The lake response should be nearly if not completely tapered off by
12z Monday. Patchy MVFR lake clouds may linger through the morning,
though areawide improvement towards VFR is expected through the day.
Winds will become light as they become southerly in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Late Monday night through Tuesday...IFR in widespread light snow,
tapering off late.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday...IFR in snow, especially
east/northeast of the lakes. Improving later Thursday.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure passing north of Lake Ontario this evening will
continue to produce a brief period of southwest gales on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario. Winds will veer to the northwest and diminish
overnight, further diminishing Monday as high pressure briefly
builds over the lower Great Lakes.

The next round of elevated winds will arrive Wednesday through
Thursday as a cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes, with high
end Small Craft Advisory conditions likely, with a small chance of
low end gales.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-002-
     010>012-019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for SLZ022.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/PP
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/PP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...Hitchcock