994
FXUS61 KBUF 062328
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
628 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A return to colder temperatures will support scattered snow showers
and some limited lake effect snow, especially east of Lake Ontario
where modest accumulations are expected, greatest across the Tug
Hill Plateau. Gusty winds are expected across much of the area
through Friday, resulting in blowing snow in areas which receive
fresh snowfall. A few light snow showers will linger at times this
weekend. Cooler temperatures will also linger through the weekend
before a warmup starts with the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery shows a negatively tilted, deep trough advancing
slowly east towards the eastern seaboard. The strong area of low
pressure that brought widespread rain and warm temperatures
Wednesday, is now well north of the forecast area. Post-frontal
conditions are apparent across western and north central NY with
temperatures in the 20s and wind chills in the teens. Strong forcing
from the mid-level trough axis will continue to support an area of
snow moving east across the eastern Lake Ontario region through
early to mid evening, with lake enhancement also starting east of
the lake. Farther west, scattered flurries and light snow showers
will continue this evening across Western NY, most persistent across
the higher terrain east of Lake Erie.

A tight pressure gradient and unidirectional flow with a 40-50kt low
level jet has resulted in wind gusts 35-45 mph across a majority of
the forecast area. A Wind Advisory is in effect for locations east
of the Niagara Frontier, Chautauqua and Monroe counties through late
tonight. A westerly wind direction should keep most wind gusts below
45 mph in these locations with the higher terrain as the main threat
for wind gusts 45-50mph. Going into this evening, a modest PV
intrusion will move across the Great Lakes region and models suggest
the tropopause to lower to 500mb across Lake Ontario and north-
central NY. This will likely cause an uptick in winds east of the
Genesee River. The Wind Advisory was expanded to include Jefferson
and Lewis counties where wind gust up to 50 mph are possible this
evening.

The synoptic snow east of Lake Ontario will end later this evening,
but a better lake response is expected east of Lake Ontario from
late evening on as a westerly flow moves across the long fetch of
the lake. Snow showers will persist across the southern Tug Hill
region including Oswego county through tonight. Snow accumulations
of 2-4 inches are possible east of Lake Ontario, mainly across the
Tug Hill and 1-2 inches at most east of Lake Erie. Low temperatures
will fall to the 20s, teens across the Tug Hill region tonight.

Heights will begin to increase from southwest to northeast late
tonight into Friday as the trough retreats to the north. Snow
showers will end east of Lake Erie and move north east of Lake
Ontario Friday. An additional 1-3 inches of snow is possible across
Oswego County and on the Tug Hill Friday, mainly in the morning as
lake effect snow showers continue. A tight pressure gradient and a
30-40kt low level jet will maintain gusty winds across the region
Friday. Highs will reach the 30s, upper 20s across the higher
terrain. A shortwave trough will dip down from eastern Canada while
a fast moving disturbance will move across the Ohio Valley Friday
night. A cold front will move across the forecast area and
increasing moisture and forcing could result in another period of
widespread snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A long wave trough over the region will maintain below normal
temperatures Saturday, to near normal Sunday. Light lake effect snow
showers will be carried inland, with activity most prominent
Saturday night when ambient moisture increases with the passage of a
shortwave trough, reinvigorating the weak snowbands.

All told dry air will keep new snow accumulation minor Saturday and
Sunday, with an inch or two Saturday night with better moisture
profiles.

Another shortwave will dive across southern Ontario Sunday night
focusing light snow upon the North Country. A burst of snow here
will deposit another inch or two of snow east of Lake Ontario, with
flurries or light snow showers for the Finger Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A quiet start to the work week next week as the jet stream lifts
northward, with a favored storm track across southern Canada. It
will become breezy and mild ahead of a moisture starved cold front
Tuesday, with a southwesterly breeze sending temperatures to the 60s
for the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region, while lake cooled
air lingers shoreline locations, including Buffalo and Watertown, in
the lower 50s. This front may cross our region dry Tuesday.

There are indications that this jet will dip southward across the
Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps with a system that will
bring some rain...but models are still with a great deal of
uncertainty at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An area of snow east of Lake Ontario associated with forcing from
the passage of the mid level trough axis will continue to produce
widespread IFR through early to mid evening. Farther west, flurries
and scattered snow showers will continue with VFR/MVFR conditions in
most areas, and local IFR across the higher terrain east of Lake
Erie.

Most of the general synoptic snow showers will taper off later this
evening. Lake effect snow will continue overnight, especially east
of Lake Ontario with local IFR mainly across the Tug Hill region to
Oswego County. Farther west, lake effect snow showers will diminish
overnight east of Lake Erie, with VFR/MVFR conditions in most areas.

Friday, lake effect snow will continue to produce local IFR east of
Lake Ontario, with most of the snow focusing across Oswego County
and the Tug Hill region. Elsewhere, expect a few light snow showers
with VFR to MVFR conditions.

It will remain quite windy through Friday, with gusts of 25-35 knots
common across the region.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...MVFR/VFR. A small chance of light snow
showers.
Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure will move north across the Canadian Maritimes
tonight through Friday before moving north across Labrador Saturday.
This will maintain gale force winds on Lake Ontario at times tonight
through Friday, with Small Craft conditions on Lake Erie. Winds will
diminish somewhat over the weekend, but Small Craft Advisory
conditions will still continue most of the time Saturday through
Sunday on Lake Ontario.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Water levels will continue to run high on some rivers across
Western NY and east of Lake Ontario through the end of the week
from runoff from snowmelt and rainfall Wednesday. All rivers are
generally expected to remain at or just below bankfull, although
there will be some very minor flood issues in low lying areas
along some rivers.

The slowest river reach in Western NY is the Tonawanda Creek
near Rapids, this point will continue to rise of the next few
days, and crest over the weekend. The crest is expected to
remain below flood stage, but some minor flooding is possible in
low lying areas along the creek in the northern portions of
Newstead, Clarence, and Amherst, especially along the swampy
tributary streams that tend to have some minor backwater
flooding when the main stem of the Tonawanda is running high.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ004>006-012>014-020-
     021.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LEZ020-040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK/SW
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/HSK
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock