126
FXUS61 KBUF 011802
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
202 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler airmass will flow over the lower Great Lakes this weekend
with localized bands of lake effect rain southeast of the lakes
through Sunday morning. Surface high pressure will build into our
region Sunday, ending the lake response while also allowing for a
bit more sunshine, though temperatures will remain near normal. The
next storm system will arrive Monday, with a gusty southwest wind
ahead of a cold front that will bring another round of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build into our region tonight into Sunday,
which will back the wind flow to more westerly. The arrival of
a shortwave trough could provide a temporary uptick to the lake
band east of Lake Erie tonight, but this activity should remain
rather disorganized with only light rainfall amounts. Weak lake
bands should also continue southeast of Lake Ontario.

Any lingering lake effect rain will end early Sunday morning with
the increased wind shear and incoming drier air associated with the
building high. There will be a mix of clouds and sunshine with
high temperatures a bit above normal in the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The weak sfc ridge over the Lower Lakes exits off to our east Sunday
night, but will maintain dry weather through at-least mid morning
Monday. With the approaching potent shortwave trough, gusty
southwest winds is advertised to develop ahead of the cold front.
BUFKIT shows a 40-50 knot LLJ around 925mb with a well mixed
sounding profile. Anticipating the highest wind gusts to focus
northeast of both lakes. As the cold front enters the Lower Lakes
Monday afternoon-evening, some showers will also be possible but
most activity will be on the light side. NBM probs show less than
30% chance of seeing 0.10" from the western Finger Lakes west, with
the highest probs (> 70%) east of Lake Ontario. Shower chances
dwindle Monday night with a return to dry weather everywhere Tuesday
through Tuesday night as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft will keep a fairly progressive pattern in place
across the Lower Lakes with the next shortwave arriving Wednesday.
While there is some minor differences in placement and timing it
does look like we will see some showers which last into early
Wednesday night. After that...sprawling sfc ridge builds in Thursday
with dry weather returning again across the Lower Lakes. Uncertainty
then begins to increase significantly for Friday into the weekend as
the next shortwave approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the region through tonight. A few
weak lake rain bands will continue east and southeast of both lakes.
Northwest winds gusting to 15 knots will go calm after 03z tonight.
Some mid level clouds moving in should limit fog potential overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a shower ESE of Lake Ontario
with MVFR ceiling heights early.

Monday...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR. Breezy southwest gusts downwind of
the Lakes. Rain showers likely. Lowering ceiling heights across
higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario. Rain showers taper off
Monday night.

Tuesday...Becoming mainly VFR. A chance of a shower east of Lake
Ontario.

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR. Rain showers late.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds to 20 knots will diminish this evening, with small
craft advisories ending with the diminishing wave heights. Along
a convergent lake effect boundary there will be a small chance
for waterspout formation on Lake Erie tonight.

Winds will weaken further on Sunday, and back to a southwest wind
direction early in the day. This will maintain low wave heights on
the eastern Great Lakes.

Ahead of a well defined shortwave trough these southwest winds will
increase through the day Monday. Southwest winds to 30 knots are
expected on both Great Lakes...with a decent flow continuing down
the Saint Lawrence river. Additional small craft advisories are
likely starting Monday morning, with poor boating conditions likely
to continue through much of the work week on the Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon
         for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...Thomas/TMA