871
FXUS61 KBUF 071823
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
223 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide a period of dry weather tonight. Chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms increase Sunday afternoon as low
pressure makes its way across the Ohio Valley. A cold front will
bring more numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Smoke models keep a degree of near-surface smoke in place through
tonight so expect the hazier skies to continue. Brief ridging and
surface high pressure sliding north of the region will keep dry
conditions in place tonight.

High pressure slides eastward Sunday allowing a surface wave to
reach the Ohio Valley. This surface wave lifts the frontal boundary
to our south northward, with some degree of convection developing
northward into the region through the day Sunday. Greatest coverage
looks to be focused south of the Thruway, with areas to the north
likely remaining dry, especially the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers Sunday night will diminish as the mid level disturbance over
the region weakens, and carries northeastward.

Monday and Monday night could become an active period as a warm
front pushes into our region, with dewpoints rising into the lower
to mid 60s bringing humidity...though not with oppressive heat as
afternoon temperatures should remain in the 70s for most areas.

Aloft a belt of stronger flow (45-50 knots) ahead of a mid level
trough will bring increasing 0-6 km bulk shear values between 40 and
50 km, that with increasing instability (MUCAPE values now 400-800
J/KG) could lead to stronger storms with gusty winds and drenching
downpours. Still perhaps lacking in instability, deepening moisture
and wind shear, coupled with diffluent flow aloft will allow for
convection to blossom in the peak heating of the afternoon and
evening. There is still a bit of a timing concern, as several of the
convective allowing models and deterministic models delay the bulk
of the activity to late afternoon and through the overnight
hours...this as the mid level low to our west draws closer.

Convection will continue Tuesday with a deepening upper level trough
rotating over the Great Lakes region. Thunderstorms, favored during
the peak heating of the afternoon hours will likely develop along a
strengthening lake breeze boundary, and carry eastward. Supporting
these thunderstorms will be increased lapse rates over 7 deg/km. The
southwest flow will keep the Buffalo Metro area dry through much of
the day Tuesday with a breeze off the Lake. A stabilizing airmass
coupled with some drying in the lower levels will keep much of
Tuesday night dry...albeit with some patches of fog forming across
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Several shortwaves advancing through a west-northwest mid level flow
could bring a few showers or thunderstorms this period, but nothing
widespread for the time being to close out the remainder of the
period. Seasonable temperatures with slow warming aloft with most
areas in the 70s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An area of haze from wildfire smoke may limit surface visibilities
to 4-6SM through about 22z across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes, including the KJHW airfield. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the TAF issuance period with light winds.

There is a chance for some patchy fog after 06Z tonight, but
confidence is low at any particular terminal right now, so left out
of the TAFs for now.

VFR the first half of Sunday, before pockets of MVFR develop with
increasing potential for showers and a few thunderstorms. Greatest
coverage south of the NYS Thruway during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure build into the eastern Great Lakes will maintain light
winds and minimal wave action through tonight. Easterly flow will
bring modest chop on the western end of Lake Ontario by Sunday
afternoon. Winds will then turn southwesterly Monday and
Tuesday...though at this point conditions appear to remain well
below advisory levels.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...AR