096
FXUS61 KBUF 092131
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
531 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing warm front will bring one last round of light to modest
snowfall to the North Country through this evening, before pulling
east of the area overnight...with dry weather otherwise prevailing.
Save for a temporary cooldown on Wednesday...the upcoming week will
then feature a warming trend and mainly dry weather...with portions
of western New York likely pushing 70 degrees by Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight...one last shortwave trough will slide through the backside
of the slowly departing larger-scale upper level trough across the
northeastern states...with an attendant surface low quickly dropping
southeastward across Ontario Province and pushing its associated
warm front across the North Country. The increase in moisture and
quick shot of isentropic ascent and DCVA attendant to these features
will generate one last shot of light to modest snowfall across the
North Country through the first half of the night...with fresh
accumulations ranging from around an inch across the lower
elevations to as much as 2 to 4 inches across the higher terrain of
the Tug Hill and western Adirondack foothills. Some rain may mix in
briefly at the onset and again as the snow winds down overnight.
Otherwise...dry weather will prevail across the area...with the
ongoing warm advection pattern resulting in lows primarily ranging
through the 30s. As the low passes by our longitude...an associated
low level jet on its southern flank will also traverse the area and
induce a 3-6 hour period of fairly breezy to windy conditions at
most locations...with winds likely gusting to as high as 40 mph from
the Lake Erie shoreline northeastward across the Niagara Frontier
over to Rochester. With this in mind...have bumped up winds and
gusts from previous continuity.

Brief surface ridging will slide across the region Monday,
supporting the continued dry weather. Outside of this, a warming
trend will continue Monday with temperatures warming up into the
upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Not a whole lot of weather going on during this period...as a
passing low amplitude longwave trough will give way to a burgeoning
ridge over the Great Lakes region. This will set the stage for some
very mild...if not warm...weather as we head into the end of the
week. Getting into the details...

A deepening southerly flow will be found across our forecast area
Monday night...as a fairly strong shortwave will be making its way
across the Upper Great Lakes. This will support a fairly mild and
increasingly breezy night with temps in most areas only falling to
within a few degrees of 40.

A surge of Spring warmth will be found ahead of an approaching cold
front on Tuesday morning...as H85 temps topping out arnd 6c will
support early afternoon max temps in the 50s to lower 60s. The
coolest weather may actually be found in downtown Buffalo...where a
gusty southwest wind could keep temps largely in the 40s. Speaking
of winds...while a warm advective pattern will be in place into the
afternoon...a portion of a 45 knot LLJ will mix to the sfc to allow
sfc gusts of 30 to 35 mph for some areas. The cold front will then
press through the region during the mid and afternoon. This will
prompt a distinct increase in cloud cover with a few areas picking
up some sprinkles or isolated showers.

A large sfc high over the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday evening will
then drift across our forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
While this will guarantee fair dry weather...it will also interrupt
our trend of higher temperatures. In fact...the mercury on Wednesday
will be a solid 10 to 20 degrees lower with an unusually large
spread of max temps that will range from the mid 30s across the
North country to the upper 40s/nr 50 near the Pennsylvania border.

Confidence in dry weather will deteriorate Wednesday night through
Thursday night though...as the large sfc high will exit across Maine
to the Canadian maritimes. The clockwise circulation around the
exiting high will help to pump some Atlantic moisture into our
area...and with the help of some low level convergence within a weak
sfc based inverted trough...some sprinkles or light showers could
develop. This may be countered though by subsidence aloft from a
ridge that will gradually build immediately to our west.

Otherwise...we will return to warmer weather on Thursday. H85 temps
avg 5c will promote an afternoon max temps in the 50s to near 60
over the western counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...Spring-like Warmth with Possible Flooding East of Lake Ontario
Next Weekend...

A deep southerly flow will take hold late this week into the first
half of the weekend in between strong high pressure over the western
Atlantic and strong low pressure (sub 980mb) that will track from
the central Plains Friday, to near the Arrowhead of Minnesota
Saturday, then to the vicinity of James Bay by Sunday morning. This
will bring continued warmth, especially across the western NY lake
plains where downsloping will further contribute to warming. 850mb
temps around +8C to +10C Thursday will warm to +11C/+12C by
Saturday. Daytime highs will climb into the 60s for most locations
Friday and Saturday, with 70F not out of the question in some
valleys and downslope regions. Though not quite approaching daily
records, this will be some 20 to 30 degrees above average for this
time of year. Will continue to hedge forecast on the warm side of
model guidance, given the model agreement in the pattern and the
southerly flow. Expect gusty winds to develop late this week into
the weekend as well with a tight pressure gradient in place, along
with a potent LLJ just off the deck.

Friday will be mainly rain-free, then a deep trough digging across
the nations mid-section will establish a deep moist southerly flow
by Saturday. This may bring some scattered showers during the day
Saturday, but steadier rain should hold off until later Saturday
night into Sunday as the systems` attendant wavy cold front slowly
crosses the area during the second half of the weekend.
Unfortunately, the warm weather will substantially melt the still
significant snowpack across the eastern Lake Ontario region, which
will lead to higher flows heading into the weekend. This combined
with the risk for a soaking rainfall Saturday night and Sunday may
lead to flooding in the Black River basin Saturday night and beyond.
Looking ahead, expect return of much cooler weather to start the new
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight a warm front will slide south and east across the North
Country and bring a period of light to modest snowfall and
associated IFR/MVFR to KART and KGTB between 00z and 06z...with the
snow possibly mixing with some rain at the onset and again as it
winds down overnight. Elsewhere conditions will be dry and
predominantly VFR...with a passing 50-knot low level jet inducing a
3-6 hour period of gusty surface winds and/or LLWS at most
locations. Expect the highest surface gusts (to 30-35 knots) to
occur from KBUF/KIAG eastward to about KROC.

On Monday surface-based ridging will slide across the region
allowing skies to clear out...with VFR conditions prevailing.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday Night through Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain
showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Expect another round of fairly widespread advisory-level conditions
across the Lower Lakes tonight into Monday morning in tandem with
low pressure passing by to our north across Ontario Province...and
the passage of a corresponding low level jet/temporary tightening of
the surface pressure gradient. Have therefore hoisted and/or
extended Small Craft Advisories as outlined below.

In the wake of this system surface-based ridging will slide across
the region late tonight and Monday and bring improving conditions...
with winds and waves subsiding back to below advisory thresholds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LEZ020-040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/JJR
NEAR TERM...EAJ/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...Apffel/JM
AVIATION...EAJ/JJR
MARINE...EAJ/JJR