648
FXUS61 KBUF 032328
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
728 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the Great
Lakes and New England through much of the upcoming week. This will
support an extended period of dry weather and above normal
temperatures. While afternoon high temperatures will be well into
the 80s for lower elevations every day this week, humidity levels
will remain low to moderate.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies tonight combined with light winds will allow
temperatures to cool to the upper 40s to upper 50s for most areas.
Western Southern Tier valley fog will be possible once again
overnight and should dissipate early Monday morning within a few
hours of sunrise.

A cold front dropping south across Canada will approach the area
later on Monday and may cause a few showers and isolated storms for
the North Country. The rest of the area will remain dry. Afternoon
temperatures expected to reach the low to upper 80s for most of the
area, with some upper 70s to near 80 possible for the higher
terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expansive sfc high pressure centered over James Bay Monday night
will slowly migrate southeast to northern New England and the
Canadian Maritimes through Wednesday night. This feature will
preclude much of the rain chances across our region through the
period while the increasing southerly component to the low/mid level
flow gives daytime high temps a modest boost. Confidence remains
relatively low (especially in impacts near the surface) though the
broad scale subsidence may cause some measure Canadian wildfire
smoke to remain trapped overhead through much of the period.

Main exceptions to the otherwise prevailing dry weather will come as
a backdoor cold front moves south to the S. Ontario/Quebec border
Monday night before washing out and stalling across the eastern Lake
Ontario region and Adirondacks. The small increase in mid-level
moisture and diffluent flow aloft under the equatorward entrance
region of a weak developing ULJ could touch off a few showers or
storms across the North Country as diurnal insulation increases
Tuesday afternoon. Thereafter, mid-range guidance does hint at some
scattered convection developing further south later Wednesday
afternoon, though given the dry antecedent conditions, weak forcing
and higher uncertainty will stick with NBM`s mostly dry forecast.
Slight better chances across the S. Tier Wednesday night as deeper
Atlantic based moisture advects into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure at all levels centered over New England and the
Canadian Maritimes Thursday morning will shift southward into the
western Atlantic through the weekend. The deepening offshore
anticyclonic flow will gradually advect a warmer airmass into the
region from the west/southwest with a more pronounced upward trend
in temps. Afternoon highs in the typical warm spots across the Lake
Plains and Genesee Valley are expected to reach the upper 80s to low
90s over the weekend, though especially on Sunday. This said, Tds
look to remain modest for the most part, with NBM`s forecast Tds in
the 60s still likely being overdone given the recent lack of
rainfall. This may keep the more headline-worthy conditions at bay
though will need to continue monitoring.

On the subject of rainfall, while there will be some opportunities
for some diurnally driven scattered showers or thunderstorms later
in the week, a widespread soaking rainfall remains unlikely as
systems approaching from the west are washed out/deflected by the
strong offshore high extending back into the Eastern Great Lakes
region. Best chances for meaningful precip will be during peak
heating hours and inland from the lakes, generally away from the D0
(abnormally dry) areas across WNY and in the St. Lawrence Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight, becoming mostly clear. Winds will become light and combined
with the clear skies, Western Southern Tier valley fog will be
possible once again overnight and should dissipate early Monday
morning within a few hours of sunrise. Low confidence if KJHW will
be impacted.

Monday, mainly dry with VFR conditions after earlier morning valley
fog near JHW. Some increase cloud cover will be possible in the the
afternoon, but flight cats should remain VFR. A few scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out for late in the
afternoon for the North Country as a cold front approaches from the
north.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Localized fog and IFR
possible each late night and early morning across the river valleys
of the Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
Expansive surface high pressure will remain in control from the
Great Lakes to New England through much of the week. The light
synoptic scale flow will generally keep winds and waves minimal
across most of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with lake breeze
circulations bringing onshore winds each afternoon.

The lake breeze circulation will combine with some synoptic gradient
to bring elevated winds and a moderate chop to the northeast end of
Lake Ontario this afternoon, but winds and waves are expected to
remain a little below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Monday night for
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...SW/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock