821
FXUS61 KBUF 280637
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
237 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry for most areas into the early afternoon today before showers
develop and move across the area ahead of and along a passing cold
front. Behind the passing cold front, most areas can expect some of
the coolest temperatures experienced since early June for Friday.
Mainly dry weather can be expected from later Friday afternoon
through the middle of next week with day-to-day warming starting
Saturday to at least near near normal for most areas; resulting in a
beautiful holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The morning will start off mostly on the dry side, but a cold front
dropping southeast out of Canada will start to increase the
potential for showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Sfc convergence and a pre-frontal trough will help increase shower
development ahead of the main front with showers and thunderstorms
filling in between the trough and the front. Showers may develop
during the mid to late morning over and downwind of Lake Erie with
lake enhancement and surface convergence early on, this includes the
Buffalo Metro area. Showers will also develop and approach the St.
Lawrence Valley during the mid to late morning with closer proximity
to the parent sfc low. The front will move through fairly quickly
with heavier downpours expected, but some areas where some better
surface convergence and lake enhancement increases shower potential
can expect a better potential for some heavier showers ahead of the
front. Rainfall amounts of half an inch to an inch will be possible
for most locations, with some areas exceeding one inch where heavier
showers develop. Winds will increase today ahead of the cold front
with gusts up to 35 mph expected at time, especially closer to and
just downwind of the lakes. Increases in the winds gusts will be
possible with heavier showers, but instability and shear values are
not favorable for organized strong/severe thunderstorms.

Tonight, the cold front will cross the area from the mid evening
through the early overnight generally in a northwest to southeast
direction. Shower and thunderstorm potential will taper off as the
cold front passes. Cold air advection behind the passing front,
along with lingering synoptic moisture will help to continue the
potential for lake enhanced showers southeast of the lakes through
at least the first half of the night. Drier air filtering into the
region through the night will help erode showers from northwest to
southeast during the second half of the night. Winds are expected to
weaken significantly behind the passing cold front and shift to the
north and northwest within a few hours of the frontal passage.

Temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to upper 70s. The
airmass behind the passing front will cool with temperatures aloft
at 850 hPa cooling to the 0-2 deg Celsius range by daybreak on
Friday morning, which is easily in the lower 10th percentile and
approaching the daily min for this date.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of the cold frontal passage from Thursday night, an
anomalously cool airmass will rotate overhead in the base of the
trough dropping 850mb temperatures down toward +3 to +4 Celsius
Friday. With the cooler airmass overhead, expect a few days of below
normal temperatures with highs both Friday and Saturday struggling
to climb out of the 60s, especially for the locations across the
higher terrain.

Additionally, with the post-frontal regime overhead the synoptic
pattern will support cool cyclonic flow across the area Friday,
resulting in some lake enhanced and upslope rain showers southeast
of Lake Ontario. Uncertainty continues with regards to the coverage
and timing of the showers as the airmass filtering in overhead
continues to trend drier. Overall, coverage of showers should be the
greatest Friday morning before becoming spottier Friday night into
Saturday morning.

Surface high pressure over the central Great Lakes will then begin
to work its way east this weekend. Overall subsidence and dry air
associated with the surface high will support mainly dry weather
through Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure will
gradually slide east before settling off the East Coast by mid-week.
Overall, this will not only support dry weather for the first few
days of September but also a warming trend.

Looking further ahead, the next upper level trough will pass across
the Great Lakes late in the week, supporting another strong cold
front to pass across the region. As this feature is on the outer
edges of the forecast period, the main impact as of now will be the
introduction of the chances for showers late Wednesday across the
far western New York.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions with just passing upper level cirrus this morning as
surface high pressure moves by to our south.

VFR conditions will prevail this morning ahead of a cold front that
will be approaching the terminals from the northwest, with mid level
decks starting to thicken and lower across northwestern areas by
midday. Thickening mid-level decks will then quickly develop
southeast through mid afternoon, with conditions deteriorating to
MVFR from west to east late this afternoon into the early evening.

Showers will develop to the west and northwest of the terminals by
late this morning ahead of the approaching front, before moving into
western and north-central NY this afternoon into the evening. A few
thunderstorms will also be possible. Southwest winds will increase
through the day with wind gusts up to 25-30 knots at
KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART this afternoon.

Tonight, showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of and along the
cold front will bring MVFR cats along with and localized IFR
conditions at times with heavier showers. CIGs will continue to
lower to low end MVFR and IFR (mainly over interior high terrain
areas) behind the passing cold front. Guidance is trending drier
behind the passing front, so some increases to cats will be
possible.

Outlook...

Friday...MVFR/IFR early with showers possible, but tapering off from
west to east through the day with improving conditions following
suit to VFR.

Saturday through Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A moderate chop will continue on the waters early this morning. A
cold front will approach from the northwest further increasing the
southwesterly flow through the day today. Winds and waves will reach
Small Craft Advisory levels on portions of both Lakes during this
time for which headlines are now in place (see below). A few
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through the first half
of tonight with the cold front.

Winds will veer northwesterly and remain somewhat elevated tonight
in the wake of the cold front. Waterspouts are possible on the Lakes
this afternoon through tonight. The elevated west to northwesterly
flow will continue, keeping choppy conditions in place to end the
work week, gradually subsiding through the day on Saturday. High
pressure will then build directly over the Lower Great Lakes region
bringing very little chop to flat wave conditions for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
         for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
         Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JM/SW
MARINE...JM