485
FXUS61 KBUF 142155
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
555 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop southward across our region tonight bringing
back a layer of clouds to our region, and possibly a light shower or
two south of Buffalo toward daybreak, Otherwise, expect dry
conditions behind the front as skies clear Wednesday with a chillier
day expected for both Wednesday and Thursday, with areas of frost
forming at night. The next potential for rain returns later in the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Last of the stubborn low stratus lingering over Lewis County will
dissipate by early this evening as drier air pushing in from the
west finally wins out, while patchy areas of diurnal cumulus across
inland areas will dissipate with the setting sun.

A line of clouds associated with a cold front just to our northwest
will drop across our region tonight. Expect increasing clouds across
WNY through the evening as the front draws closer. Dry air will
remain abundant in the lower levels, and this front will likely pass
through with nothing more than a sprinkle or very isolated light
rain shower this evening. A weak mid level disturbance and
associated secondary weak cold front will bring another chance for a
light shower or two later tonight south of Buffalo, but more
importantly a reinforcing shot of chillier air to the region for mid
week.

The increase in clouds tonight along with the core of the chilliest
air not arriving until after the secondary frontal passage late
tonight will keep our region frost free for the counties still
remaining in the growing season. Overnight lows will be in the 40s,
with the Allegany Plateau and Tug Hill Plateau/western Adirondack
foothills dropping back into the upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Behind a cold front a cooler airmass will advect into our region
Wednesday through Thursday, with a light northerly flow ahead of an
area of high pressure that will remain camped just to our west
through Thursday night. We could see a few lower end lake clouds
develop south of Lake Ontario, and south of Lake Erie Wednesday
morning with perhaps a light rain shower, but increasing amounts of
dry air will fade these clouds through the afternoon hours, and
maintain nearly cloud-free skies for Thursday and Thursday night.

Frost is likely to form within counties that remain in the frost-
freeze program both Wednesday and Thursday night, with Thursday
night the better potential of the two nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An amplified pattern will develop for next weekend, with a large
ridge of high pressure, and its associated axis over the Great Lakes
and through the Tennessee Valley, while a deepening trough of low
pressure forms over the northern Plains. This trough will collect
both tropical Pacific moisture along with northern Pacific moisture.

A warm front will pass northward across our region Friday night and
Saturday morning, with a few rain showers upon it. The deeper
moisture will remain to our west and north. A much milder airmass
will be drawn northward, with temperatures at 850 hPa reaching +12-
13C. This will bring highs into WNY into the lower 70s for Saturday
while east of Lake Ontario remains in the mid 60s under deeper cloud
cover. Temperatures across WNY could be warmer if they can break out
into mostly sunny skies.

A cold front will pass across our region Saturday with showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm...with rain showers potentially lingering
into Sunday if a surface wave develops upon this front. The
GFS/ECMWF have a deepening low going by to our northwest that even
with a little instability this dynamic system could bring a few
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon to Western New York.

A cooler airmass will follow this front for the beginning of next
week, with 850 hPa temperatures dropping down into the lower single
digits Celsius, and near Lake Ontario below zero. While not cold
enough for snow, this cooler airmass is expected to generate bands
of lake effect rain as moisture wraps around the main storm system.
There is still model uncertainty to the flow direction...and where
the main upper level trough axis lies. For now will just have chance
PoPs to cover for this lake effect rain potential...as well as
showers associated with the nearby upper level low.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Only lingering MVFR CIGS in stratus are found across Lewis County
late this afternoon and will finally erode by around sunset as drier
air working in from the west finally wins out. VFR flight conditions
elsewhere. Otherwise, any lingering isolated narrow bands of MVFR
diurnal cu will dissipate with the setting sun.

Clearing will be short-lived as a pair of weak cold fronts are set
to move across the region tonight. A short window of low-end VFR or
MVFR ceilings will be possible with the frontal passage, with higher
probability of MVFR ceilings across the western Southern Tier
tonight.

Canadian high pressure will build into the region Wednesday bringing
widespread VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance for rain showers.

Saturday...Becoming VFR across WNY, MVFR/VFR east of Lake
Ontario in isolated rain showers.

Saturday night and Sunday...IFR/MVFR in rain showers. Isolated
thunder across WNY.

&&

.MARINE...
A pair of weak cold fronts will cross the region tonight with a
moderate the fresh northerly breeze developing on both Lakes in the
wake of the first frontal passage this evening. Expect choppy to
very choppy conditions on both lakes through early Wednesday
afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens between strong
high pressure building in from the west and low pressure lingering
off the East Coast. This has led to a Small Craft Advisory being
issued for the southcentral and southeastern portion of Lake Ontario
as outlined below, with near SCA conditions on all of the remaining
waters, except for the northeastern tip of Lake Erie.

Winds and waves will remain elevated through Thursday evening,
especially on Lake Ontario before the pressure gradient starts to
weaken Thursday night as the center of the high moves overhead,
bringing light winds and low wave action for the finish of the work
week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
         Wednesday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/Thomas
NEAR TERM...JM/Thomas
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK/JM
MARINE...JM