118
FXUS61 KBUF 181017
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
617 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will track across eastern Canada
through Tuesday afternoon, providing cooler and drier weather into
Tuesday morning. The potential for at least some showers and
thunderstorms will increase the the middle of the week as a weak sfc
low tracks near the region. High pressure late in the week will
return drier weather to western and north central NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The region will be under the influence of a large area of high
pressure over eastern Canada during the period, resulting in fair
dry weather through tonight. Mostly clear skies are expected this
morning, except for some stratus at times early this morning. High
clouds during the day today should increase off of upstream
convection over the northern plains/upper midwest. There is still
some uncertainty with the high clouds moving in, but if higher
clouds dont fill in, and the sky remains mostly clear, then some
afternoon diurnal cumulus clouds will be possible mainly south of
Lake Ontario. Northeast winds this morning in the 5 to 10 mph range
will gust some through the morning, and weaken from the late morning
through the afternoon. Temperatures today will be in the upper 60s
to upper 70s from the higher terrain to the lower elevations.

Tonight, dry weather will continue through the night with some of
the high clouds increasing as well, with some mid level clouds
increasing across the Southern Tier from the south. Winds will veer
from the northeast to the the southeast through the night, and also
become light. With light winds in place, temperatures will cool to
the mid 40s over the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario, to the mid
50s for the lower elevations of WNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level troughing will build across the Northeast with multiple
shortwave troughs moving through the region mid-week. An expansive
surface high over Eastern Canada will maintain mostly dry weather
across the forecast area Tuesday. A few showers may move into the
Niagara Frontier by late Tuesday, as a shortwave trough and deeper
moisture approach the forecast area from the west. A broad area of
low pressure will move from the Upper Great Lakes region to the Ohio
Valley Tuesday through Wednesday. Warm air advection will spread
from west to east across the region while an inverted surface trough
sets up across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night. Showers will
move from west to east across the forecast area Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Uncertainty is high in regards to the coverage
of showers, as deterministic models have backed off on precip across
the forecast area. For now, went with low to medium chances of
showers across the forecast area Tuesday night. Shower chances
diminish across western zones then move to interior portions of the
forecast area Wednesday. Average rainfall amounts will be light
through Wednesday morning. Instability increases Wednesday afternoon
and a few thunderstorms are possible which could produce localized
higher rainfall. A trough axis near the region will maintain low
chances of showers Wednesday night.

Temperatures will rebound Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s, mid 80s in the Genesee Valley. Temperatures will likely be a
few degrees lower Wednesday with clouds and showers around the area.
Low temperatures will reach the upper 50s to low 60s Tuesday night
and Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level ridge will build across the eastern Great Lakes
region Thursday through Friday night. Dry weather will return to the
region during this time. The pattern takes a big turn as a deep
upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region this weekend.
Warm weather will persist through Saturday. As the first of a few
cold fronts approach the region, showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible Saturday, however confidence is low. A cold front is
forecast to move through the region sometime late in the weekend.
Multiple rounds of showers and storms are possible across the region
Sunday into Monday. By Monday, mean 850mb temperatures are forecast
to fall to near 8C. Lake effect rain showers will be possible into
early next week. A notable cooldown is expected Sunday into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR this morning with a few brief periods of lower VSBY to
IFR a times for areas east of Lake Ontario, including near KART.

VFR expected for today with northeast winds of up to around 10 mph
weakening late in the morning and through the afternoon. Some
increase in high clouds will be possible from upstream convection.

Tonight, mainly VFR with winds veering from the northeast to the
southeast through the night. High clouds are expected to continue to
increase, and some mid-level clouds are possible for the Southern
Tier late tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. Isolated to scattered
showers.

Wednesday...Localized cig/vsby restrictions possible especially
early in the day, otherwise mainly VFR with decreasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`s are in place for both lakes with northeast winds today, for
Lake Erie through most of the morning and through most of the
afternoon on Lake Ontario. Winds will weaken on Lake Erie and then
Lake Ontario through the morning and into the afternoon.

Winds will veer from the northeast to the southeast from this
evening through tonight as high pressure builds across Quebec. Winds
the next few days are expected to stay below SCA levels from this
evening onward.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon
         for LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW