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FXUS61 KBUF 041754
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
154 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive high pressure will settle directly across our area
today...resulting in plentiful sunshine and comfortable conditions
for the Independence Day holiday. The high will then slide off the
mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend...with a southwesterly
flow on its backside allowing heat and humidity levels to build
again...though mainly dry weather will continue through Sunday. A
cold front will then slowly move south across the region and bring
renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure crossing the region will continue to support dry
weather today with mostly sunny skies, comfortable humidity levels
and seasonable temperatures. A few fair weather cumulus clouds will
be possible with the afternoon heating. Winds will be light across
the area, with some slightly higher winds near the lakes.

Tonight, continued fair weather as the sfc high centers over eastern
NY. Some high clouds will start to push into the area ahead of the
next warm front. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Thursday
nights values with the sfc high pushing east and weak warm air
advection starting. Overnight lows will range from near 60 for WNY
to the low 50s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Saturday, a weak warm front will track northeast across the forecast
area through the day. As the front pushes northeast and both weak
synoptic forcing and instability increases, a few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, with the greatest potential across
the western Southern Tier, but a shower/storm can`t be ruled out for
most of the forecast area. Clouds will increase some, but plenty of
breaks in the coverage expected. Winds are expected to remain at or
below 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The heat and humidity will continue make a return Saturday night and
Sunday as the axis of a flattening mid-level ridge slides east
across the Northeast, while multiple partially phasing shortwave
troughs ripple across the provinces of Ontario and Quebec.
Associated surface high pressure with the aforementioned ridge will
support dry weather to prevail. As alluded to previously, 850 mb
temperatures will warm to around +20C Sunday, resulting in surface
high temperatures well into the upper 80s to low 90s, with a few mid
90s possible across the warmer spots of the Genesee Valleys. Cooler
temperatures will lie along the shorelines of both lakes and a few
miles inland due to the lake breeze. With humidity levels creeping
up, a few locations across Livingston and Ontario county may reach
Heat Advisory criteria for a few hours.

Due to the phasing of the multiple shortwave troughs passing east
across the Great Lakes Sunday through Monday, a surface cold front
will slide from northwest to southeast Monday. As the day
progresses, a ribbon of moisture will set up across southcentral New
York, supporting showers and thunderstorms to blossom on the
southeastern fringes of the forecast area (i.e. the Finger Lakes
region) Monday afternoon. Similar to the front that passed through
yesterday (July 3) afternoon, a few scattered rain showers will be
possible Monday morning before diurnal effects support showers and
storms to blossom by the afternoon.

General broad troughing will then set up across the area Monday
night, supporting cooler and drier air to advect into the area,
supporting conditions to dry out and be favorable sleeping
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad troughing set up across the Great Lakes Tuesday through Friday
will allow for a few shortwave passages throughout the rest of the
work week before pulling the pattern east by Friday night. With each
shortwave passage expect increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the region. This being said, the whole week won`t
be a wash out as plenty of dry time will ensue between shortwave
passages. There continues to be a fair amount of uncertainty in the
timing and location of the shortwave later in the week and therefore
the extent of any diurnally convection along with it. Will have to
keep an eye on it as it gets closer.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal for the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions through tonight as high pressure pushes across the
region. Some increasing clouds expected overnight, but expected to
remain at/above 20k ft.

Saturday, mostly VFR conditions persist. Some mid-level clouds along
with a few showers/storms will be possible in the afternoon, mainly
for the western Southern Tier, including at JHW.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...Mostly VFR.

Sunday night and Monday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR restrictions possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Sprawling high pressure draped from the central Great Lakes to the
Ohio Valley will settle directly across the Lower Lakes region
today...with its axis then slowly drifting to eastern New York and
Pennsylvania tonight. This will result in light to modest winds and
minimal wave action across the lakes for the Independence Day
holiday.

The surface high will then slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline
through the weekend...while a slow-moving cold frontal boundary
edges southward across Ontario and Quebec. The tightening pressure
gradient in between these two systems will result in winds turning
more southwesterly and gradually increasing across the Lower Great
Lakes through the weekend...though conditions are currently expected
to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...JJR