183
FXUS61 KBUF 181941
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
341 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
With the area in the warm sector of an approaching system,
temperatures this afternoon have warmed well above normal and what
was experienced the past few days. A few afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the area followed by a break
through the evening. Showers with some thunderstorms will move back
into the area overnight tonight an into Saturday morning as a cold
front approaches from the west-northwest. Cooler and drier weather
is expected for Sunday, followed by fluctuating temperatures for
the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The potential for a few showers with some embedded thunderstorms
will continue this afternoon as a shortwave trough tracks near the
area. Otherwise mainly dry and warm weather with the area in the
warm sector of an approaching system. Temperatures this afternoon in
the mid 60s to mid 70s for much of the area.

Mainly dry for the evening before showers with some thunderstorms
fill in across the area overnight as another warm front tracks
across the region. As the the sfc low tracks across the central
Great Lakes and into western Quebec through the night, and as
moisture increases, shower coverage will continue to increase as
well. The lack of daytime heating will help limit thunderstorms
some, but there is expected to be enough instability to support at
least the chance for some embedded thunderstorms. Rainfall tonight
of around a tenth to a third of an inch will be possible for much of
the area, with the greatest amounts down near the NY/PA line.
Temperatures will remain mild tonight in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Saturday, showers and embedded thunderstorms continue through the
morning hours, slowly shifting southeast as the cold front
associated with the system starts to push east-southeast across the
area. Another tenth to third of an inch of rainfall will be
possible, with the greatest amounts expected for areas east of Lake
Ontario. Temperatures will reach peak values during the late morning
and early afternoon hours ahead of the cold frontal passage.
Temperatures will warm to the mid 60s to low 70s for most of the
area ahead of the cold front. If the front is a bit slower than
expected, then temperatures may warm a bit more than expected. Gusty
winds will be possible ahead of and along the cold front, with gusts
of 30 to 40 mph possible, with the highest values expected for the
higher terrain south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will push frontal boundary and associated
moisture southward Saturday night, leaving our region dry for Easter
Sunday. NBM Max Temperature spread for Sunday is small...with high
confidence in temperatures under a mostly sunny sky ranging from the
upper 40s near Lake Ontario...to upper 50s near the State line.

Monday there is a greater spread in NBM Max Temperature spread
across the Lake Plain and SLV, likely due to the strength of the
southerly downslope flow and amount of precipitation/moisture Monday
morning (WNY), and early afternoon (SLV) with a warm front. A
stronger downslope flow, and drier warm frontal passage may warm the
lake plain and SLV greater than forecasted, potentially into the
low/mid 70s (lake plain) and mid 60s (SLV). A wedge of instability
Monday afternoon and evening, behind the warm front and ahead of a
cold front may allow for thunderstorms across much of our
region, with highest chances for SW NYS. Showers then taper
down the remainder of Monday night with the passage of the cold
front, though a westerly breeze remains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will clear east of western and northcentral NY Tuesday
morning, with just a few lingering scattered light rain showers
possible across our eastern zones before midday. Cold air advection
within weak cyclonic flow aloft will help to mix elevated winds off
the deck to the surface, with daytime heating only further aiding
the transport of stronger winds aloft to the surface during the late
morning/afternoon hours. Strongest wind gusts will be felt across
areas east/northeast of the lakes, where gusts to 30-40 mph will be
common, with 25-30 mph elsewhere.

High pressure then builds across the area providing mainly dry
weather and much lighter winds for the Tuesday night through
Thursday timeframe, although a weak mid level shortwave passing by
to the north may just graze our area Thursday, so can`t rule out a
passing shower during the day. Fair amount of discrepancy toward the
tail end of the period within the 18/12Z operational guidance
package with regard to the approach of the next system, thus
NBM/ensemble guidance PoPs in the slight to low Chc range seem a
good compromise for the last day of the work week.

Daytime highs will be a bit below average to start the period,
trending to above average for the latter half of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few shower with some embedded thunder is possible this afternoon
associated with a shortwave quickly racing east. It will also become
quite breezy by this afternoon, with southerly wind gusts up to 30
knots. Otherwise mainly VFR conditions for area terminals today.

A secondary warm front will track across the region overnight and
its associated sfc low will track north of Lake Ontario, this will
result in increased showers with some embedded thunderstorms. The
greatest chance for shower activity should start around 7/8Z, but a
few scattered showers out ahead of the main batch of showers cant be
ruled out earlier in the night. Mainly a mixture of MVFR and low end
VFR, with lower flight categories expected in showers and over the
higher terrain. If any showers become heavier then brief drops to
IFR may be possible. Guidance shows a 50+ knot LLJ ahead of the
front and sfc winds falling off after 00Z, therefore LLWS has been
added to the TAFs for KBUF, KIAG & KROC.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue into Saturday morning,
with the potential for thunderstorms decreasing later in the
morning. A cold front will push the showers southeast during the
afternoon hours. Mainly MVFR in the morning with slow improvement`s
toward VFR from northwest to southeast late in the day.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds on Lake Erie will be strong enough today to support
SCA`s, but will direct the highest waves into Canadian waters. Winds
then shift to the southwest tonight ahead of the approaching cold
front. Small craft headlines will likely be needed again for some of
the waters late through the day Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...AR/SW
MARINE...AR/SW