208
FXUS61 KBUF 031506
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1106 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through from the north will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the region at times through this
afternoon. An area of high pressure will then bring dry and
comfortable weather tonight through Independence Day. Heat and
humidity will then build over the weekend, with more unsettled
weather early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A couple batches of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible today, first during the late morning, then again later in
the afternoon. These will occur as a cold front tracks southeast
across the region which will then be followed by a trough. With
decent CAPE values of 1,000+ J/kg and some marginal shear values of
around 30 kts, SPC has most of the BUF forecast area in a `Marginal
Risk` for severe thunderstorms. Timing for the frontal passage will
be late morning into the early afternoon for most of the BUF
forecast area, a little earlier than favorable for peak daytime
heating and some low stratus is also developing south of Lake
Ontario, further limiting heating potential. High temperatures today
will be in the low 70s over the higher terrain to near 80 for the
lower elevations.

A few scattered showers/storms may linger into the early evening
hours, especially east of Lake Ontario. High pressure and a
surface ridge will start to build into the region tonight,
centering over WNY by Friday afternoon. This will result in
mainly clear skies tonight with lows in the low to upper 50s.
The sfc high over the region will also result in a beautiful 4th
of July holiday with mostly sunny skies, comfortable humidity
levels, light winds and temperatures in the low 70s to near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The axis of a surface ridge will slowly drift southeastward
Friday night...allowing for continued fair/dry and comfortable
weather.

During the rest of this period the surface ridge will then drift
further southeastward and off the mid-Atlantic coastline...while the
axis of broad upper level ridging crests across our region aloft.
The increasing southwesterly flow on the backside of the departing
surface ridge will help to pump warmer and at least somewhat more
humid air back into our region...with highs on Saturday reaching
into the mid-upper 80s in many areas...along with surface dewpoints
climbing back into the lower half of the 60s. Coupled with daytime
heating and a developing lake breeze boundary...cannot completely
rule out an isolated shower/storm popping up southeast of Lake Erie
Saturday afternoon...though dry weather should otherwise continue to
prevail.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Sunday deep-layer ridging will remain anchored across the mid-
Atlantic states...while a low-amplitude trough digs across the Upper
Great Lakes. At the surface...an elongated/wavy frontal boundary
across southern Ontario/Quebec will only slowly edge southward as
its western periphery becomes more "wavy" in response to the
approach of the above trough...resulting in the front remaining to
our north through the day. In turn...this should result in another
largely dry day...though again cannot completely rule out some
isolated afternoon convection across Niagara/Orleans counties and
northern portions of the North Country...which will lie closest to
the slowly approaching boundary. The bigger story will be the very
warm to hot and humid conditions...which could result in portions of
the Niagara Frontier/Finger Lakes flirting with or reaching low-end
Heat Advisory Criteria.

After that...gradually amplifying (but still rather broad) troughing
over eastern Canada will encourage the frontal boundary to slowly
push southeast as a cold front and cross our region sometime during
the Sunday night-Monday night time frame...with this feature
bringing renewed chances for convection as it makes its way through
our region. Following its passage...somewhat cooler and drier air
should then filter back across our region through the balance of
this period...resulting in a return to generally drier weather along
with temperatures near early July normals.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR today with some brief periods of MVFR CIGs with some
broken low clouds crossing the area ahead of an approaching cold
font. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible for
late this morning and early afternoon, and then again later in the
afternoon. Showers/storms will accompany the passing cold front and
later a passing trough. Brief reductions to both VSBY and CIGs can`t
be ruled out if a heavier downpour passes over a terminal.

Tonight through Friday, mainly VFR for all terminals with high
pressure building into the region. The exception being for JHW where
some fog across the Southern Tier may cause lower VSBYs to MVFR.

Outlook...

Friday night through Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night through Monday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds today will cause some choppy conditions across the
lakes. Scattered showers/storms may have some brief gusty winds over
the waters through the afternoon.

An area of high pressure will build into the region tonight and
Friday, resulting in weak winds over the lakes and little to no
waves. Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels through the
weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/PP
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW