Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
750 FXUS61 KBUF 111721 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 121 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot weather will continue through Tuesday. Most areas will stay dry, although there may be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms late in the day across the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes. A weak cold front will then cross the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday producing scattered showers and thunderstorms with very uneven coverage. Dry weather will then return Thursday and last through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunshine will continue this afternoon with just a few diurnal cumulus building at the max of diurnal heating. Highs will top out in the lower 90s on the lake plains, but relatively low humidity will continue to prevent any appreciable heat index above and beyond the actual temperature. Strong differential heating and light synoptic flow will again support the development of solenoidal lake breeze circulations this afternoon, keeping areas with a few miles of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario a little cooler later today. High pressure surface and aloft will linger along the eastern seaboard through Tuesday, providing a continuation of mainly dry and hot weather. Tonight will be mainly clear, with some patchy fog possible across the river valleys of the Southern Tier late tonight through early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be mainly dry, although a modest increase in low level moisture and instability may be enough to support a few isolated showers and thunderstorms late afternoon and evening mainly along the southern edge of the Lake Erie lake breeze from the western Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes. Stable lake shadows over and northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will eliminate the already meager chance of any deep/moist convection. Highs will reach the lower 90s once again across the lower elevations of the lake plains. Dewpoints will creep slightly higher than today, resulting in a heat index in the low to mid 90s. Forecast soundings continue to suggest surface dewpoints will mix out to some extent in the afternoon, with any coverage of 95F or higher heat index too spotty and brief to justify a Heat Advisory. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A mid level trough will move east across northern Ontario and Quebec Tuesday night through Wednesday. The majority of the large scale forcing for ascent from height falls/DPVA ahead of the trough and upper level jet support will remain well north of the area, leaving a weakly forced cold frontal boundary crossing the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday morning. The weakly forced nature of the front, and less than ideal diurnal timing will keep any beneficial rain spotty at best, with little to no relief from very dry soil conditions in most areas. The best coverage of rain across Western NY will be very late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, and during the day Wednesday east of the Genesee Valley. The poor diurnal timing and lack of instability will keep any thunderstorm related hazards to a minimum. High pressure will build back into the Great Lakes Thursday, bringing a return to dry weather. The post-frontal airmass will be somewhat cooler, dropping high temperatures back to just slightly above average for a day. A drier and less humid airmass will also allow for cooler nights. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will build southeast across Quebec and New England Friday through Saturday, with a ridge extending back into the eastern Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic. This will maintain dry weather across the region. The slight cooldown behind the front Thursday will be short lived, with temperatures quickly trending to well above average again by Saturday. Sunday through Monday, a trough will amplify across Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes, forcing a cold front to sag southward across the Great Lakes and New England. This will bring another chance of a few showers and thunderstorms to the region, but at this early juncture coverage and amounts of rain will again offer little relief to dry soils. It will turn a little cooler and less humid behind this front early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sunshine and VFR will prevail through this evening, with just a few diurnal cumulus developing. Mainly VFR conditions will continue tonight, with some localized river valley fog and IFR possible across the Southern Tier late tonight and early Tuesday morning. If this materializes it will not impact KJHW. Mainly dry weather will continue through Tuesday, although there is a slight chance of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms late in the day along the southern edge of the Lake Erie breeze from the western Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes. Outlook... Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms and associated brief/local CIG/VSBY restrictions. Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog and local IFR possible across the Southern Tier each late night and early morning. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will remain anchored along the east coast through Tuesday with light winds and local lake breeze circulations producing onshore flow this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Light winds will yield minimal wave heights through Tuesday. A cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes late Tuesday night through Wednesday. This front may produce a few scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally higher winds and waves. Southwest winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range ahead of the front late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, then become more northwest behind the front Wednesday night, producing a period of moderate chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Hitchcock SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock