411
FXUS61 KBUF 092336
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
736 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes
will slide towards New England by Friday, resulting in dry cool
weather. Widespread front will be possible tonight into Friday
morning, as temperatures across typical inland locations drop
below freezing. Mainly dry weather will persist Saturday. A
chance of showers will arrive late Saturday and last through
Monday as a mid- level low approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clear skies and light winds beneath surface high pressure supporting
efficient radiational cooling. However, due to the fact the surface
high will be drifting east into New England tonight, surface winds
won`t go completely calm in most areas, inhibiting the full
potential of frost/freeze potential. Despite this, still expect
widespread frost overnight, as temperatures fall below freezing
across the typically colder locations of the Southern Tier and
eastern Lake Ontario.

Surface high pressure will continue to advect east into New England
Friday, supporting dry weather to prevail. Unlike today, with the
surface high now to the east of the region, the area will be under a
warm air advection regime, supporting temperatures to modulate into
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure over New England Friday night through Saturday
will likely support dry weather to prevail. However, a compact
shortwave trough diving southeast across the Great Lakes may
introduce a few showers across far western New York Friday night
through Saturday. Additionally, warm air advection will continue
Friday night through Saturday. This being said, Friday night`s lows
will range in the 40s limiting frost potential. With Saturday`s
highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday will have a medium chance (35-55%) of rain showers, mainly
across western NY. This has been trending upward over the past few
days as model uncertainty continues to shrink with the presence of a
compact, closed upper low across Lake Erie as well as a surface low
moving up the Carolina coast. Most model and ensemble guidance now
shows the presence of the low dropping out of the polar jet to the
north, but continue to have placement inconsistencies that will need
to be monitored.

Headed into Sunday night, precipitation chances will begin to focus
farther east into the Finger Lakes region and east of Lake Ontario
as the coastal low with a deep layer of easterly/southeasterly
isentropic lift spreading farther north. While forecast QPF through
Monday morning is below 0.5" for most locations, probability of
exceedence thresholds continue to increase over the past few model
cycles based on NBM output. Additionally, interactions between the
two lows may lead to this system lingering around a little longer
into early next week with the chance of light precipitation
continuing into early Tuesday.

Generally, drier weather expected for the middle of next week as a
broad upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS. However, a
cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon may lead to lake shower
development off of Lake Ontario later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread VFR tonight with SKC-FEW250. VFR conditions will persist
through Friday as surface high pressure overhead early tonight
east into New England.

Outlook...

Friday Night through Saturday...VFR.

Sunday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will drift east tonight through Friday,
allowing for winds to relax overhead and conditions to remain below
small craft thresholds. With the close proximity of the surface high
this weekend, conditions will remain below small craft advisory
criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ001>005-010>014-019-085.
     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ006>008-020-021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/TMA
NEAR TERM...EAJ/TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...Brothers
AVIATION...EAJ/TMA
MARINE...EAJ/TMA