214
FXUS61 KBUF 041028
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
628 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive high pressure will settle directly across our area
today...resulting in plentiful sunshine and comfortable conditions
for the Independence Day holiday. The high will then slide off the
mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend...with a southwesterly
flow on its backside allowing heat and humidity levels to build
again...though mainly dry weather will continue through Sunday. A
cold front will then slowly move south across the region and bring
renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface-based ridging sprawled from the central Great Lakes to the
Ohio Valley will settle directly across our area today...while
heights aloft also will rebound some in the wake of Thursday`s
system. This will result in simply spectacular weather for our
nation`s birthday featuring plentiful sunshine...light winds...and
comfortable temperatures/humidity levels...with 850 mb temps of +9C
to +13C supporting highs in the mid-upper 70s...and surface Td`s
only running in the lower-mid 50s.

The axis of the surface ridge will then slowly drift southeastward
to eastern New York and Pennsylvania tonight...allowing for
continued fair/dry and comfortable weather. Expect temperatures to
primarily range through the 60s by the start time of any evening
fireworks displays...with overnight lows then ranging from the lower
60s near Lake Erie to the lower/mid 50s across the interior of the
Southern Tier and North Country. Enjoy!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The axis of a flattening mid-level ridge will shift from the Ohio
Valley Saturday to off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday. Concurrently,
several partially phasing shortwaves will ripple across Ontario and
Quebec, sending a wave of sfc low pressure and associated cold front
SE into the Great Lakes region. An area of sfc high pressure ahead
of the ridge aloft will move eastward in tandem, becoming well
offshore by Saturday evening. In all this will cause mainly dry
weather to prevail, albeit with increasing summer heat. While
Saturday will be quite warm in most areas, 850H temps climbing to
around +20C on Sunday will cause widespread sfc high temps in the
low 90s across the Lake Plains, potentially even mid 90s in the
Genesee Valley. Given Tds rising into the upper 60s and low 70s,
counties mainly bordering the southern Lake Ontario shoreline and
Livingston County will likely have pockets that meet Heat Advisory
criteria Sunday afternoon.

Otherwise, there looks to be two potential exceptions to the
prevailing dry weather this period. The first will be Saturday
afternoon in the western Southern Tier as a plume of deeper moisture
advects over a region of localized lake breeze convergence, possibly
causing a few pop-up showers or tstorms (~20% chc). The second is
Sunday night as the aforementioned cold front nears the region,
though chances remain low (15-25%) given the unfavorable diurnal
timing.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A couple of mid-level shortwaves will slide across the eastern Great
Lakes next week, with the first being right at the start the period
Monday and the second coming sometime between Wednesday night and
Thursday. These will correspondingly bring increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms to the region, though temperatures are
expected to average near seasonable levels through much of the week.
Still a fair amount of uncertainty in the timing of the second
shortwave and the extent of any diurnally driven convection
preceding it, though a period of drier weather is expected later
Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some limited patchy fog developed within the river valleys of the
Southern Tier overnight...however this (and any associated
restrictions) will mix out rather quickly early this morning.

Otherwise...sprawling high pressure draped from the central Great
Lakes to the Ohio Valley will settle directly overhead today...with
its axis then slowly drifting to eastern New York and Pennsylvania
tonight. This will result in VFR conditions prevailing through
tonight...with mainly clear skies today followed by a modest
increase in mid and high cloud cover later on tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...Largely VFR, with just an outside chance
of an isolated shower/thunderstorm or two across the Southern Tier
Saturday afternoon.

Sunday night and Monday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Sprawling high pressure draped from the central Great Lakes to the
Ohio Valley will settle directly across the Lower Lakes region
today...with its axis then slowly drifting to eastern New York and
Pennsylvania tonight. This will result in light to modest winds and
minimal wave action across the lakes for the Independence Day
holiday.

The surface high will then slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline
through the weekend...while a slow-moving cold frontal boundary
edges southward across Ontario and Quebec. The tightening pressure
gradient in between these two systems will result in winds turning
more southwesterly and gradually increasing across the Lower Great
Lakes through the weekend...though conditions are currently expected
to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR