389
FXUS61 KBUF 262117
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
517 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger through tonight as an upper level low crosses
the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will continue through Sunday
morning east of Lake Ontario, and the higher terrain of the Tug Hill
Plateau and western Adirondacks will even change over to some wet
snow with a coating of slush on the grass. High pressure will then
build into the eastern Great Lakes with clearing skies from west to
east through the day Sunday. Dry weather will continue Monday along
with a warming trend to start the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Most of the light showers through early evening will be confined to
the North Country, with mainly dry weather across Western NY outside
of a few light upslope showers across higher terrain. It will be
quite breezy through this evening, with WNW winds gusting up to 35
mph at times, especially southeast of Lake Ontario and across higher
terrain.

Surface low pressure will exit east across New England tonight, with
an area of wrap around moisture within the comma head of the cyclone
moving back southeast across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. A
sharp mid level closed low will cross southern Ontario this evening
before moving to New England by Sunday morning. Increasing forcing
for ascent in the DPVA/height falls ahead of the mid level closed
low along with deeper wrap around moisture will bring an increase in
coverage of showers during the mid to late evening across most of
the area, with the possible exception of far western NY which will
get missed by the deeper moisture.

The most persistent and widespread showers will be found east of
Lake Ontario tonight through Sunday morning. 850MB temps drop to
near -5C overnight, which may allow for the very top of the Tug Hill
Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks to mix with, or
change to wet snow late tonight and Sunday morning. If the change to
wet snow occurs, there may be a coating of slush on the grass at the
highest elevations.

The rain, or rain/snow mix east of Lake Ontario will end by late
morning or midday Sunday. Otherwise, expect clearing skies from west
to east through the day, with plenty of sunshine across western NY
and late day sun east of Lake Ontario. A cool airmass will be in
place to start off the day, with a gradual warming of that airmass
from west to east through the afternoon. This will allow
temperatures to recover to near or just below average, with highs in
the 50s for most areas, and possibly close to 60 across some lower
elevations away from the lakeshores.

High pressure will drift from the central Great Lakes to the eastern
Great Lakes Sunday night. Mainly clear skies, light winds, and a
seasonably cool airmass will support strong radiational cooling,
with lows dropping back into the 30s areawide, and even some lower
30s possible in some of the sheltered Southern Tier Valleys and
North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridging at all levels will crest east of the region
through Monday night with fair dry weather and warm temperatures.
Much more active weather expected Tuesday as a sharpening mid-level
trough pivots east across Ontario and the Great Lakes region. Deep
southwesterly flow ahead of the main trough axis will draw a very
warm, moist, and unstable spring airmass into the region with 850H
temps climbing to around +16C, PWATs to around 1.6", and SBCAPE
values between 1000-1500J/kg respectively. This will lead to shower
and thunderstorm development out ahead of the system`s strong cold
front, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. A strong 50-60kt
LLJ will also provide plenty of shear to allow for more organized
storm structures, with the orientation of the jet generally parallel
to the front favoring linear storm segments. Overall this setup
looks supportive of localized strong thunderstorm wind gusts, hail,
and heavy rain...Though still a fair amount of uncertainty in these
details, in addition to potential lake shadowing in some areas and
the amount of cloud cover/stabilization preceding this activity, but
will continue to closely monitor.

The region should quickly dry out later Tuesday night with the
arrival of the cold front and significantly drier air from the
northwest. Likewise, temperatures will tumble back towards more
seasonable readings in the 40s (WNY) and 30s (North
Country) overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A brief period of low-amplitude ridging will provide cooler, but
mainly dry weather Wednesday through Wednesday night. A phasing
shortwave pattern over the nation`s midsection will then crawl
eastward and lead to unsettled weather Thursday into Friday night,
though the wettest period in this timeframe will likely come
Thursday night as low pressure moves out of the Ohio Valley and
across the eastern Great Lakes.

While the first half of the weekend looks to be generally drier, it
will also be considerably cooler with continued low-end chances for
precip as the deepening trough continues to dig southward out of
Canada and into the eastern CONUS, possibly closing off just north
of the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will exit east across New England through tonight, with
the associated mid level closed low passing just north of the area
this evening. Wrap around moisture and forcing from this system will
maintain fairly widespread showers east of Lake Ontario this evening
through Sunday morning with widespread IFR in low stratus and areas
of fog and BR. The rain may mix with some wet snow late tonight and
Sunday morning across the highest elevations. The rain or rain/snow
mix will end by late morning or midday east of Lake Ontario, with a
return to VFR in the afternoon as cloud cover scatters out.

Farther west, expect another round of showers through the first half
of tonight, especially across the Genesee Valley and western Finger
Lakes. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue, with some IFR across higher
terrain. The rain showers will end overnight, and clouds will
scatter out from west to east late tonight and Sunday morning with a
return to VFR.

It will remain quite breezy tonight through midday/early afternoon
Sunday with WNW gusts in the 25-30 knot range. Winds will then
weaken fairly quickly from mid afternoon through early evening.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms with associated brief/local restrictions.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing late.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will exit east across New England tonight, with a much
cooler airmass pouring back into the eastern Great Lakes. Moderate
to strong WNW flow will bring higher end Small Craft Advisory
conditions to Lake Ontario through much of the day Sunday before
winds gradually diminish later Sunday afternoon and evening. Lower
end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue on Lake Erie
through tonight, before winds diminish late tonight into Sunday
morning. High pressure will then build over the eastern Great Lakes
Sunday night through Monday, with a brief period of light winds.
Southerly winds will then increase Monday night ahead of a strong
cold front. Winds veer southwest and further strengthen Tuesday
ahead of the approaching boundary, then veer northwest Tuesday night
and remain strong in the wake of the cold frontal passage, with this
being the next likely period of Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ042-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JM
MARINE...Hitchcock/JM