580
FXUS61 KBUF 130517
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
117 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along the eastern seaboard will spread clouds back into
most of the region today, with a few showers from the Finger Lakes
to east of Lake Ontario, while Western NY stays mainly dry. The
showers over eastern portions of the area will persist into tonight
before ending by Tuesday morning as high pressure builds into the
eastern Great Lakes. A cold front will move south across the area
Tuesday night, ushering in seasonably cool and mainly dry weather
for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar imagery showing a few light showers across the eastern Lake
Ontario region and Finger Lakes early this morning, with clouds
gradually thickening and lowering from east to west.

A mid level low over Western NY early this morning will complete a
cyclonic loop as it moves south across Pennsylvania today to the Mid
Atlantic by tonight, where it will merge with a northward advancing
coastal low just offshore of the Delmarva. Persistent easterly flow
poleward of the coastal low will continue to advect Atlantic
moisture westward across NY State today, with a few rain showers at
times from the Finger Lakes into Central NY and the eastern Lake
Ontario region. Greater rainfall and impacts from this system will
remain well east of our area, with just light rainfall amounts
expected along the eastern fringe of our CWA. Mainly dry weather is
expected across Western NY farther removed from the Atlantic
moisture feed, with the western edge of measurable rainfall roughly
along a line from Watertown to Canandaigua to Olean.

Tonight, a few light showers will persist from the Finger Lakes to
the eastern Lake Ontario region, with the best chance of minor
measurable rainfall across Oswego and Lewis counties, while dry
weather continues across Western NY. Some patchy hilltop fog may
develop overnight across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes where
low stratus intersects the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A stout ridge and large sfc high associated with a brief omega block
pattern will build into the region during the period. This will
result is fair dry weather for the entire period. A dry cold front
associated with a sfc low crossing Hudson Bay will track across
western and north central NY Wednesday morning. This will result in
cooling temperatures for the remainder of the work week. Breezy
northwest winds on Wednesday will also follow the frontal passage.

Temperatures on Tuesday will remain above normal with highs in the
60s to near 70. Behind the passing cold front, temperatures will
drop below normal into the 50s, with a few upper 40s possible for
the Tug Hill area for Wednesday and Thursday. Cooler temperatures
for Wednesday and Thursday night will provide the potential for
frost/freeze conditions, especially inland from the lakes, where low
temperatures in the mid 20s to mid 30s will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure and a ridge over the region to start the period will
continue the dry weather through at least Friday afternoon.
An approaching warm front will start to increase the potential for
showers starting later Friday evening, followed by a break of mainly
dry weather for Saturday.  An approaching cold front will bring the
next round of showers Saturday evening into the remainder of the
weekend as a trough follows the frontal passage. There is still some
uncertainty among guidance for timing and amount of rain with the
front.

Temperatures will start to warm some on Friday, and warm to above
normal for the Saturday into early Sunday behind the passing warm
front. Timing of the cold frontal passage for Sunday will determine
how warm the temperatures can reach.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A coastal low will continue to move north just off the eastern
seaboard today, with persistent easterly flow north of the system
advecting Atlantic moisture back westward into the area. CIGS will
lower from east to west today, with widespread MVFR/IFR from the
Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and Central NY to the Tug
Hill region today through tonight. MVFR CIGS will likely move into
KROC this afternoon through tonight as well. Far Western NY
including KBUF and KIAG, and also near the Saint Lawrence River
including KART, should remain VFR much of the time farther removed
from the feed of Atlantic moisture.

A few showers will spread into the eastern Lake Ontario region
mainly south and east of KART, and also through the Finger Lakes and
Central NY today through tonight. The showers may reduce VSBY to
MVFR at times. Patchy fog/mountain obscuration may develop across
the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes tonight as
low stratus intersects the hilltops.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Morning MVFR/IFR in low stratus across higher terrain
improving to VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to move north just offshore of the
eastern seaboard today, while high pressure remains in place over
the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure gradient between the two will
produce moderate northeast winds on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today
through tonight, with very choppy conditions. Winds and waves will
generally stay just below Small Craft Advisory criteria, but it will
be close at times.

A ridge of high pressure will build into the Great Lakes Tuesday,
with winds becoming northwest and diminishing. These northwest winds
will then strengthen behind a strong cold front Tuesday night,
likely resulting in another round of SCA conditions through Tuesday
night through Wednesday night on Lake Ontario. Choppy conditions are
expected on Lake Erie as well though confidence is lower in SCA
criteria being met during this timeframe.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/PP