380
FXUS61 KBUF 301651
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1151 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mix of rain and wet snow will continue this afternoon, with snow
favored across higher terrain and rain for lower elevations. It will
be very windy, especially northeast of Lake Erie. Colder air will
move back into the region tonight, with a brief period of lake
effect snow and minor accumulations east and southeast of Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario. Lake effect snow will end by Monday morning as
high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes. Another low
pressure system will then pass south of the area later Monday night
and Tuesday, with widespread light snow and minor accumulations
expected across most of the region. Below average temperatures and
daily snow chances will continue through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
This afternoon, warm advection and isentropic upglide driven
precipitation will move off to the northeast, wind one more brief
band of showers along and eastward advancing cold front moving
rapidly from west to east across the area. The arrival of a brief
thermal ridge just ahead of the cold front, with an added boost of
SSW downslope flow, will allow for mostly rain at lower elevations
with wet snow across higher terrain. Additional snow accumulations
through the rest of the daylight hours will be mainly across the Tug
Hill Plateau where surface temperatures remain colder, and upslope
flow enhances QPF. Expect another 2-4" across the Tug Hill this
afternoon, with little or no accumulation for surrounding lower
elevations.

SSW downslope winds along the Lake Erie shore will quickly
transition to a brief surge of stronger post-frontal SW winds over
and northeast of Lake Erie this afternoon and early evening, with
peak gusts likely reaching around 50 mph across the Niagara Frontier
and Lake Erie shore. Elsewhere, expect gusts of 30-40 mph this
afternoon and early evening.

A brief period of lake effect will develop tonight behind this
system in a quickly veering wind regime. The setup is brief, with
dry air and subsidence rapidly arriving late tonight and Monday
morning as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Off Lake Erie...

Initial band development late this afternoon will be across the
Niagara Frontier and Buffalo area as a rain/snow mix. This band will
move very rapidly southward to the Southern Tier this evening, only
lasting for an hour or two at any given location. Precipitation will
quickly change back to all snow, but the rapid southward movement
wil limit accumulations to an inch or so for lower elevations, and 2-
3" for the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and well south of
Buffalo. A few locations along the Chautauqua Ridge may pick up
close to 4", especially in southwest Chautauqua County.

Off Lake Ontario...

Initial band development northeast of the Lake over Jefferson County
this evening will sweep rapidly south across the Tug Hill region
overnight. This will produce another 1-3" of accumulation inland
from the immediate Lake Ontario shore, highest across the Tug Hill
Plateau.

Another band of snow from Georgian Bay will briefly develop
southeast of Lake Ontario tonight, with the most likely band
location stretching from between BUF/ROC southeastward into the
western Finger Lakes. This will produce localized dusting to 1"
accumulations.

All of the lake effect will quickly end early Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area, with dry weather for the rest of the
day and rapidly diminishing winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure quickly shifts east off the New England coast
Monday night, while an elongated area of low pressure moves from
the west Gulf Coast into the Southeast states. Low pressure is
then forecast to continue moving northeast to just off the Mid
Atlantic coast on Tuesday, then strengthen while moving
northeast along the northeast Atlantic coastline Tuesday night.
Big question continues to be just how close to the coast, as
that will have large implications on our weather across western
and northcentral NY. Model guidance continues to struggle with
the track of this system, although consensus continues to favor
a track far enough to our south and east to spare our area from
the heavier snows, although at least some accumulation will be
possible, with the best potential for near advisory (>= 4")
amounts across our southeastern areas. Stay tuned.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Late Wednesday through Thursday morning a mid level trough will
advance east across Ontario and Quebec, with an associated cold
front crossing the eastern Great Lakes. Wednesday will start mainly
dry, outside of a limited chance of some light lake effect east of
the lakes. Later Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, lake
induced equilibrium levels will rise with the start of cold
advection aloft and arrival of synoptic scale ascent and moisture
along the cold front. This will support expanding areas of lake
enhanced snow east/northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario. What remains
of this will move southeast of the lakes and weaken by Thursday
morning as dry air and ridging build quickly into the area. This
system is fast moving and associated lake effect will be brief, but
nonetheless may support some accumulating snow east/northeast of the
lakes.

Forecast uncertainty increases by Friday and Saturday with more
significant timing and track differences showing up in operational
and ensemble guidance. A split flow regime across North America will
bring at least the potential for a partially phased system by the
start of next weekend, but equally likely is the northern and
southern streams remaining unphased with just a weak system passing
through the Great Lakes. At the very least, expect a chance of some
light snow each day through the end of the week with passing weak
synoptic features and lake effect potential.

Temperatures will continue to run below average next week and beyond
with a longwave trough well established and re-loading several times
across central and eastern North America.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm frontal precipitation east of Lake Ontario will continue to
push off to the northeast this afternoon, with one more band of
showers along the cold front surging rapidly east across the area. A
brief push of warmer air just ahead of the cold front will allow
lower elevations to see mainly rain, with wet snow favored across
higher terrain where temperatures are several degrees colder. Expect
VFR/MVFR VSBY in the rain, and IFR in snow for the rest of the
afternoon. CIGS will continue to run MVFR in most areas.

It will be quite windy this afternoon and evening, especially over
and northeast of Lake Erie where gusts will exceed 40 knots at times
including KBUF and KIAG. Gusts elsewhere will be in the 25-35 knot
range. Winds will diminish later this evening.

A brief period of lake effect will develop behind the cold front.
Off Lake Erie, initial development northeast of the lake including
KBUF and KIAG will be a rain/snow mix, changing to all snow this
evening as the band moves very rapidly south towards KJHW and
weakens overnight. This band of snow will produce a brief 1-2 hour
period of IFR/LIFR conditions in moderate snow on its way south.
Expect a similar trend a few hours later off Lake Ontario, with a
band of rain/snow mix near and north of KART this evening changing
to all snow and moving rapidly south across the Tug Hill region
overnight with a brief period of IFR/LIFR conditions. A band of snow
off Georgian Bay will briefly develop tonight somewhere between KBUF
and KROC extending down into the western Finger Lakes with local
IFR. Areas of MVFR CIGS in lake effect clouds will continue tonight.

Monday, any remaining lake effect flurries southeast of the lakes
will quickly end in the morning, leaving VFR to prevail for the rest
of the day with much less wind as high pressure builds into the
eastern Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Late Monday night through Tuesday...IFR in widespread light snow,
tapering off late.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday...IFR in snow, especially
east/northeast of the lakes. Improving later Thursday.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure passing north of Lake Ontario this evening will
continue to produce a brief period of southwest gales on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario. Winds will veer to the northwest and diminish
overnight, further diminishing Monday as high pressure briefly
builds over the lower Great Lakes.

The next round of elevated winds will arrive Wednesday through
Thursday as a cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes, with high
end Small Craft Advisory conditions likely, with a small chance of
low end gales.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-002-
     010>012-019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for SLZ022.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock