366
FXUS61 KBUF 301720
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
120 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will guarantee fair dry weather through the entire
week and into the coming weekend. A cooler airmass will move in
tonight through Thursday with the potential for some frost at the
higher elevations. Temperatures will then climb back above
normal later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The center of a strong 1033 mb high over northern Ontario will
drift into Quebec through the period. This will maintain fair
dry weather. Incoming cooler air within a northeast flow will
send low temperatures tonight into the lower to mid 40s, with
mid to upper 30s across the hilltops and east of Lake Ontario.
There should be enough gradient wind to preclude areas of frost
from developing, though some patchy frost is possible in some of
the higher elevations inland from the lake. Some lake induced
clouds may also develop across northwest portions of the area
late tonight and Wednesday morning with lake delta Ts around
+12C.

Fair, but cooler weather expected Wednesday with any lake induced
clouds fading away, with perhaps some cirrus encroaching the
area from the west late in the day. High temperatures in the 60s
with northeast breezes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will be centered over the Saint Lawrence River
between Lake Ontario and Quebec City Wednesday night. Clear and calm
conditions will result in efficient radiational cooling, especially
east and inland of Lake Ontario. Cool weather is expected with
minimum temperatures ranging from the low 40s near the lakeshores to
the 30s further inland. Valley locations in the western Southern
Tier and the Finger Lakes region, are expected to fall to the low
30s, and the Black River Valley may see the upper 20s. This will
lead to areas of frost in some locations, with the highest
confidence east and inland of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. A Freeze
Watch is in effect for Lewis county for the potential for sub-
freezing temperatures in the 20s.

The surface high will move to the New England coast by Thursday
night, then the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday night. A return flow
will result in day to day warming through the end of the work week.
Dry weather will continue through Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level ridging will build across areas east of the Rockies this
weekend. High pressure will remain the dominant surface feature
across the eastern Great Lakes region and result in warm, dry
weather. Ensemble systems show the ridge becoming suppressed early
next week as a upper level trough moves into southern Canada. A cold
front and source of moisture may move into the region by mid-week.
This supports a low chance of showers Monday night through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR with SKC-FEW250 will continue through this evening
as strong surface high pressure extends across the region from
the north. Northeast winds will occasionally gust to near 20
knots into this evening.

Fog development should be very limited tonight with a light gradient
wind persisting over the region.

Incoming cooler air aloft could produce some SCT-BKN lake induced
cloud cover from KROC to KBUF within the northeast flow. Confidence
in how low this cloud will be is low, but there is some potential
for MVFR ceilings to develop.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and local IFR
possible each late night through the morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong area of surface high pressure will build east into Quebec
through tonight, then shift southeast across New England through the
rest of the week. Northeast winds will increase on the lower Great
Lakes due to a stronger pressure gradient between the Canadian
high and two tropical systems off the southeast coast. The tight
pressure gradient will continue and maintain the elevated
northeast winds through Wednesday night. Small craft headlines
are in place as outlined below.

Wind direction will start to become more easterly and relax as the
surface high to the north begins to move southeast into Quebec later
Wednesday night. The choppier wave action will gradually subside and
become directed more offshore through the night, with light to
modest breezes and minimal wave action then expected Thursday and
especially on Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for
     NYZ003-004.
     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for NYZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
         Thursday for LEZ040.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
         Wednesday for LEZ041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PP/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...PP/TMA