998
FXUS61 KBUF 040936
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
536 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the Great
Lakes and New England through much of the upcoming week. This will
support an extended period of mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures. While afternoon high temperatures will be well into
the 80s for lower elevations every day this week, humidity levels
will remain low to moderate.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clear skies will continue across the region this morning, with some
typical fog across the Southern Tier river valleys and over/near
Chautauqua Lake. The fog will burn off by mid morning.

Expansive surface high pressure will remain over the Great Lakes and
New England today through tonight, bringing more dry weather with
one minor exception. A weak backdoor cold front will move south into
the Saint Lawrence Valley, and may support a few isolated showers
across the Thousand Islands region late this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, expect sunshine for the rest of the area today.

Tonight, an area of high cirrus will cross the eastern Great Lakes
from southwest to northeast, bringing a period of increased cloud
cover. Expect typical river valley fog across the Southern Tier once
again.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires will remain across much of NY State
today through tonight, including some near surface smoke. This will
bring haze and some minor visibility reductions at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expansive surface high pressure centered southeast of James Bay to
open the period will slowly migrate southeast into New England
Wednesday through Wednesday night. This feature will preclude much
of the rain chances across our region through the period, while the
increasing southerly component to the low/mid level flow gives
daytime high temps a modest boost with above average highs, however
humidity levels remain tolerable for mid-summer. As for the smoke
potential, confidence remains relatively low (especially in impacts
near the surface), though the broad scale subsidence may cause some
measure Canadian wildfire smoke to remain trapped overhead through
much of the period.

Main exceptions to the otherwise prevailing dry weather will come as
what is left of the weakening backdoor cold front stalls across the
eastern Lake Ontario region and Adirondacks on Tuesday before
completely washing out. With the small increase in mid-level
moisture and diffluent flow aloft under the equatorward entrance
region of a weak developing ULJ, will continue with the possibility
for a few showers or storms across the North Country as diurnal
insulation increases Tuesday afternoon. May also see a few widely
scattered showers try to develop along the Lake Erie/Lake Ontario
lake breeze convergence zone during the afternoon as well...however
with very little in the way of moisture, these shouldn`t last long,
IF can materialize at all. Thereafter, mid-range guidance does
continue to advertise just a bit better chance for some scattered
convection developing further south later Wednesday afternoon as
low/mid level flow becomes more Atlantic-based. Still high degree of
uncertainty if any convection will be able to develop given the the
dry antecedent conditions (that just continue to become
exacerbated). With that said, NBM does have some SChcs for afternoon
convection over a portion of the inland areas. Just added SChc
Wednesday afternoon across western NY along and inland of the Lake
Erie/Ontario lake breezes. Want to emphasize any shower activity
will be isolated and not last long, thus will not be able to put a
dent in the overall rainfall deficit across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Center of surface high pressure will be located just off the New
England coast Thursday, where for all intents and purposes will
remain anchored through the period, while also ridging further
westward across the lower Great Lakes region Friday into next
weekend.

Otherwise, a deepening offshore anticyclonic flow will gradually
advect a warmer airmass into the region from the west/southwest with
a modestly more pronounced upward trend in temperatures. Afternoon
highs in the typical warm spots across the lake plains and Genesee
Valley are expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s by next
weekend, warmest on Sunday. Although likely still somewhat too high,
the NBM appears that it is starting to become better aligned with
the antecedent dry conditions, as dew points continue to lower next
weekend over the past few runs. This may keep the more headline-
worthy conditions at bay, though will need to continue monitoring.

Regarding rainfall, while there will be some opportunities for some
diurnally driven scattered showers or thunderstorms later in the
week, a widespread soaking rainfall remains unlikely as systems
approaching from the west are washed out/deflected by the strong
offshore high extending back into the eastern Great Lakes region.
Any precip will be during peak heating hours and inland from the
lakes. Best chance looks to be Thursday, before high pressure ridges
further westward across the region, effectively shoving any Atlantic-
based moisture circulating about the high to the west of our area
right through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clear skies will dominate most of the region through the morning
hours. Typical fog will continue across the Southern Tier river
valleys and near Chautauqua Lake with local IFR. Some of this may
briefly impact KJHW around sunrise. The fog will burn off by mid
morning.

Dry weather will continue today through tonight with one minor
exception. A weak backdoor cold front may bring a few isolated
showers to the Saint Lawrence Valley late this afternoon and evening
north of KART. Overnight, expect a repeat performance of typical
Southern Tier valley fog.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires will remain across much of NY State
today through tonight, including some near surface smoke. This will
bring haze and some minor visibility reductions to MVFR at times.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Localized fog and IFR possible
each late night and early morning across the river valleys of the
Southern Tier. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
some afternoons inland from the lakes with very sparse coverage.

&&

.MARINE...
Expansive surface high pressure will remain in control from the
Great Lakes to New England today with light winds and flat wave
action. A weak backdoor cold front will move south across Lake
Ontario tonight, bringing a period of increased east/northeast winds
late tonight through Tuesday. This will produce some chop on Lake
Ontario, especially west of Rochester.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM/PP
LONG TERM...JM/PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock