627
FXUS61 KBUF 201054
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
654 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure, with its inverted trough stretching
northward across Western New York, will track south of the state
line today with morning rain showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder becoming scattered through the afternoon hours. A few
showers of rain tonight with a cool northeast wind before activity
ends and a period of fair weather commences Thursday through the
start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This early morning an area of low pressure is near central Lake
Erie. Plenty of low level convergence within an inverted surface
trough and low level moisture will maintain these showers through
the morning hours.

Instability is not great, with the deeper MUCAPE values lying along
and south of the track of the surface low with just a low chance
thunder threat across the Southern Tier and later southern Finger
Lakes through the day.

As the low level moisture increases further through the morning
hours with the presence of a now 850 hPa low overhead we could
see moderate rainfall from this activity, with several areas
picking up beneficial rainfall amounts over a several hour
period of half to one inch. The "lengthy" period that the rain
will fall combined with the recent abnormally dry conditions
will greatly minimize the flooding threat.

There will be a drying trend this afternoon and evening as the
inverted surface trough fades to the south. Cold air advection
within northeast flow may bring reverse flow light lake effect rain
showers along both eastern Great Lakes, with perhaps these showers
grazing the southern shoreline of Lake Erie tonight.

Thursday will start with clouds around but as moisture depleted from
top to bottom in the atmosphere we could start to see some breaks in
the clouds from north to south through the afternoon hours.
Northeast flow will maintain pleasantly cool afternoon temperatures
in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A long wave ridge will build into the Great Lakes region Thursday
night through Friday night. An upper level trough moving down from
Canada will cause the ridge to suppress southward beginning
Saturday. High pressure will settle across the region Thursday night
through Friday night and dry weather is expected during this time.
The high will move east Saturday and return flow brings moisture up
from the south, a few showers and storms can`t be ruled out Saturday
afternoon.

High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal, while low
temperatures will be near normal Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An anomalously deep trough will move into the Great Lakes region
this weekend into next work week. This pattern shift will bring
cool, unsettled weather to western and north-central NY.

Deep moisture will surge northward ahead of the upper level trough
Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front will approach the region
Saturday night and showers and a few storms should expand in
coverage across the region. Coverage of strong thunderstorms will
depend on the timing of the front Sunday. A cooler airmass will move
into the region with mean 850mb temperatures falling to the single
digits by Monday-Tuesday. As embedded shortwave troughs and
associated moisture pass through the region, showers with lake
enhancement will be possible early next week.

It is likely that temperatures will be below normal Monday through
Wednesday, with day times highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, warmest
along the lake plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS showers and embedded thunder continue to carry
eastward across the region, now generally east of all but KART
airfield. An area of low pressure, with its inverted trough
stretching northward across Western New York, will track south
of the state line today with these morning rain showers and
few rumbles of thunder becoming scattered through the afternoon
hours.

Flight conditions will lower to low end MVFR to IFR as moisture in
the lower levels increases in conjunction with the 850 hPa low
pressure reaching WNY. This will likely occur through 15Z this
morning...with then these low ceiling heights likely fluctuating
between IFR and MVFR through the remainder of the TAF cycle.

For areas east of Lake Ontario (KART) which will lie farther
away from the inverted trough, and have a slight downslope
component, ceiling heights will have a hard time lowering to IFR,
with MVFR/VFR predominate through the TAF cycle.

Though the rain showers will become scattered to isolated through
the afternoon and overnight hours, the low level moisture will
linger with MVFR/IFR ceiling heights continuing.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/VFR. Rain showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of low pressure, with its inverted trough stretching
northward across Western New York, will track south of the state
line today with morning rain showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder becoming scattered through the afternoon hours. Additionally
conditions become somewhat favorable for waterspouts on Lake Erie
today with the passage of a surface trough.

With this low passing from Lake Erie and then just southward of the
state line northeast flow will dominate the next 48 hours...with
speeds over 20 knots on both Lake Erie and the central and western
waters of Lake Ontario bringing the need for small craft
advisories.

Though the northeast flow continues Thursday, wind speeds will begin
to lower by Thursday night allowing for waves to begin to diminish
and ending the SCA period. A lighter wind flow is then expected for
Friday and Saturday, becoming southerly ahead of an upstream cold
front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Thursday afternoon for NYZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
         Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM
         EDT Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas