805
FXUS61 KBUF 080039
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
739 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Localized heavy lake effect snow southeast of the will continue
through early Saturday morning, mainly across Oswego County. Low
pressure will then pass just south of the area late Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning, producing a period of widespread
snow across the entire region with modest accumulations. Lake effect
snow showers will linger southeast of Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon
through early Monday, with additional minor accumulations.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main focus for impactful weather the next 12-18 hours will be
ongoing lake effect snows east-southeast off Lake Ontario. Radar
imagery this evening showing a relatively disorganized band across
Oswego County, though broad enough to clip far northern Cayuga and
southern Lewis counties as well. With BUFKIT equilibrium levels
hovering between 6-7k feet overnight, moisture extending well
through the DGZ, and weak upstream connections to Lake Huron, we
should see a decent amount of fluff across Oswego County (additional
4-7"), with comparatively lower amounts (2-4") across the
immediately adjacent locales. These moderate snows should persist
until the sfc high and drier airmass cause EQLs to fall more
substantially Saturday morning. Winds remain rather brisk over and
east of Lake Ontario this evening, helping to carry the band further
inland and causing areas of blowing snow near the lakeshore, though
as these relax late tonight the band should shrink back towards the
shoreline.

Outside the main lake effect area...Cold and quiet weather with
partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight as the sfc high builds east
to western NY and northern PA by Saturday morning. Temps will dip to
the low/mid teens, with a few single digit readings possible across
the hilltops by daybreak.

Our attention Saturday will then turn to a fast approaching vigorous
shortwave ripping across the central Great Lakes. As the sfc low
nears the eastern Great Lakes chances for snow will increase late
Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday evening. That said, there
continue to remain some amount of uncertainty with the placement of
the greatest snowfall with this system. Again there has been a trend
northward with the higher snowfall amounts. This may in large part
be due to the higher snowfall ratios the further north you go.
Eitherway...we still are `not` looking at a significant snowfall
event with a range of 2-6", with localized higher amounts.
Additionally...given how fast this system moves through it wouldn`t
be out of the question to see snowfall rates approach an inch per
hour at times.

The system will reform off and rapidly pull away from the New
Jersey/Long Island coast Saturday night, causing these higher
snowfall rates to taper off from southwest to northeast. We will
struggle to completely let go of the snow overnight however, as a
fair measure of wrap-around, upslope, and even lake enhanced snow
showers are expected across the forecast area as flow turns north/
northwesterly behind the system.

A Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect for the entire area
beginning late Saturday afternoon-evening into the day Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid-level trough axis centered over far eastern New York will
continue to slide east into New England. In its wake, zonal flow
will set up across New York State Sunday through Monday, though a
weak shortwave will pass through late Sunday/Sunday Night.
Initially, surface low pressure that supported synoptic snow
Saturday night will now be just off shore near Cape Cod by Sunday
morning, to the west an area of surface high pressure will lie
across the Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes. Surface high pressure
will gradually slide east across the Great Lakes through Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

Initially in the wake of the synoptic system Sunday morning, the
area will be beneath northwest flow along with temperatures at 850mb
becoming marginally cold enough to support lake effect snow
southeast of both lakes Erie and Ontario. A shortwave trough passage
across the lower Great Lakes Sunday afternoon/night will resulting
in colder air to advect in across the area supporting 850mb
temperatures to drop down to -15C. Overall, with the shortwave
passage and the drop in temperatures, expect an uptick in lake
effect snow southeast of the lakes, especially off of Lake Ontario
Sunday night.

Surface high pressure will continue to build east across the lower
Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday. Lake effect southeast of Lake
Ontario Monday morning will continue to linger throughout the day
and night. As high pressure crosses the area Monday night through
Tuesday, dry air will advect into the region along with causing
winds to veer to the southwest. Lake effect snow showers will peter
out and gradually shift north to the Saint Lawrence Valley by
Tuesday afternoon.

Overall, with the lake effect snow showers expect light snowfall
accumulation with a couple to a few inches possible southeast of the
lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The mid-level pattern becomes highly amplified across the lower 48
the second half of the work week. A trough will dig across Rockies
and Plains while surface low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast.
This system will approach the Northeast while bringing a period of
wintry weather Wednesday night through Friday.

A cold front will move through the region Tuesday night which may
bring a period of snow showers. Surface high pressure should provide
mostly dry, perhaps some lingering light snow showers and cold
weather across western and north-central NY Wednesday. Model
consensus brings the area of low pressure north along the spine of
the Appalachians and moves it off the Mid-Atlantic coast or into New
England Wednesday night into Thursday. There are many details to
iron out at this time, however pattern recognition and model
consensus has the eastern Great Lakes region on the cold side, which
could mean a widespread snow event. Changes in the track especially
if there is a westward shift may draw some warmer air into the
region and result in a wintry mix.

Accumulating lake effect snow showers are possible behind this
system Friday through Friday night. Cold weather is likely Wednesday
through Friday night with daytime highs below freezing and lows in
the teens across western NY and the single digits east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snows will continue southeast of Lake Ontario overnight
into Saturday morning, primarily effecting areas from KFZY north to
the Oswego County line with localized IFR/LIFR vsbys. Mainly VFR
weather found elsewhere, though some patchy cloud cover (bases
~3kft) may linger near KBUF and KIAG through the evening.

A large, quick moving low pressure system will move south of the
forecast area later Saturday into Saturday night. Cloud decks will
thicken and lower through VFR range before the system brings
widespread snow to the entire region, likely causing impacts to cigs
and vsbys at all terminals. The leading edge of this snow is
expected to move across the TAF sites from southwest to northeast
starting Saturday afternoon with MVFR to localized IFR cigs and
vsbys, though the heavier and higher impact (IFR/LIFR) snow is
expected after the 00z TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Widespread IFR/LIFR in accumulating snow.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR in lake enhanced snow showers southeast of the
lakes.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers southeast of
the lakes.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continue to subside as sfc high pressure continues to build
across the lakes this evening and overnight tonight. With this trend
and latest observations in mind, have allowed all previous Gale
Warnings to expire, as well as the Small Craft Advisories on Lake
Erie. SCAs have been issued for the Lake Ontario nearshores into
Saturday morning to cover the lingering elevated wind/wave action.

Low pressure will then pass just south of the area Saturday night
through Sunday. Northeast winds will increase Saturday night, then
become northwest Sunday, with a period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible along the south shore of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for NYZ004>008-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ005-
     008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/PP
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...AR/PP