421
FXUS61 KBUF 241008
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
608 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly cross the Lower Lakes with showers and a
few thunderstorms today. A much cooler airmass filtering into the
Lower Lakes tonight will bring below normal temperatures and
unsettled weather through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A vertically-stacked low gyrating over James Bay will push a cold
front east through the region today.  The initial round of showers
will work east across the region this morning, and then be followed
by another potential round by this afternoon. This latter round
would mainly be for areas east of the Genesee Valley, especially
from the Finger Lakes region into the interior of the North Country
this afternoon. That being said...this will `highly` be dependent on
the speed of the cold front, and also the amount of instability
being able to re-build again this afternoon.

Tonight...the departure of the cold front and the dry slot moving
into the Lower Lakes should all but bring an end to the bulk of the
shower activity and any thunderstorms. After that...a much cooler
airmass will already be pouring into the region (850 mb temps
falling to +7C to +9C) which may spawn a few lake induced showers by
Monday morning. Now for the best part...the cooler conditions should
make for a nice night to open up the windows. Hence no need for the
air conditioners. Lows will be found primarily in the 50s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday through Tuesday night will feature surface temperatures 7 to
15 degrees below normal as a cold upper level trough passes through
the region. Temperatures at 850 hPa will lower to 4 - 6C which will
fall within the lower 10 percent per Buffalo sounding climatology.

This cold airmass will yield showers and thunderstorms, especially
during the afternoon hours. Steep lapse rates may even bring some
small hail, while lake effect rain will become embedded downwind
of the Lakes.

Lake effect rain will likely be organized the greatest through the
overnight hours, retracting back to the shoreline within a light
overnight wind flow...and then become cellular through the morning
hours with the increasing mixing heights. Deeper moisture and
convergence ahead of a shortwave trough Monday night may allow for
moderate lake effect rain southeast of Lake Erie, and later in the
night east of Lake Ontario in the vicinity of northern Oswego
County.

Lake effect rain will likely taper off Wednesday with the loss of
deeper moisture and the entrance of a shortwave ridge aloft. There
is model discrepancies as to how fast this moisture depletes...with
a low chance that a few sprinkles/light rain continues east of Lake
Ontario Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair weather will predominate much of this period, interrupted by a
frontal boundary sagging southward from Canada that may bring a few
rain showers Thursday afternoon through Friday.

With a longwave trough overhead, this period will continue to remain
cool with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will bring scattered showers and a few rumbles of
thunder today. While flight conditions will generally be
VFR...brief/localized restrictions will be possible within any
stronger convection this afternoon. Greatest chance to see any
restriction will be from KROC east to KART.

Tonight...shower and storms will wrap up as the cold front exits off
to our east. Cold air filtering in behind the front will begin to
induce a few lake effect rain showers ENE of the lakes late.
Otherwise...most area terminals will see VFR.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR. Lake effect rain
showers each night/morning downwind of the lakes...then a more
general chance of showers and embedded thunder each afternoon/early
evening.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with diminishing lake effect rain showers
downwind of the lakes.

Wednesday night/Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A pre-frontal trough and cold front working through the Lower Great
Lakes today will maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms. A
modest southwesterly flow will continue to produce choppy conditions
on area lakes but below SCA levels.

With the departure of the cold front by this evening, a much cooler
airmass will then begin to filter in across the Lower Great Lakes.
Given the cooler airmass aloft and warmer lake temps, we should see
decent over waters mixing beginning to take place of the stronger
winds aloft overnight. This will more than `likely` lead to SCA
conditions Monday on area lakes which may last through Tuesday
night. Additionally...we will have the potential for lake effect
rain showers off both lakes...as well as waterspouts beginning late
tonight.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR