Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
151 FXUS61 KBUF 141004 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 604 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier conditions expected through the end of the work week as a ridge and large surface high build into the region. A passing cold front will bring below normal temperatures for the middle to late portion of the week. The potential for rain will return for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Clouds will slowly decrease from west to east this morning as a ridge builds into the region and drier air filters in. Patchy fog will be possible through sunrise. A few showers will be possible this morning across the North Country. Temperatures this morning will range from the mid 40s to near 50 for the entire area. Today, fair dry weather is expected as ridging builds into the region behind a departing trough and sfc low along the Mid-Atlantic. Increasing sunshine is expected through the afternoon, and high temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s for most areas. Winds out of the north will remain in the 5 to 10 mph range. Tonight, clouds will start to increase from northwest to southeast as a dry and weakly forced cold front tracks toward and then across the area during the late evening tonight into the early morning on Wednesday. There is the potential for some valley fog tonight, but increasing clouds and some increased winds will limit the potential. Winds will increase, especially on and closer to the lakes behind the passing cold front with CAA and a 30 kt llj crossing the region. Temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 30s to upper 40s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A mid level trough will amplify and dig south across New England Wednesday through Thursday, while cool Canadian surface high pressure builds from the upper Great Lakes Wednesday to the lower Great Lakes by Thursday night. Associated subsidence and drying will keep our region dry Wednesday through Friday. A northerly upslope flow and limited lake instability will support clouds early Wednesday, with clearing later in the day. Mainly clear to partly cloudy skies will then prevail from late Wednesday through Friday as high pressure drifts slowly east across the Great Lakes. The amplifying trough will deliver a seasonably cool airmass, with highs in the 50s areawide Wednesday and Thursday. Frost is likely inland from the immediate lakeshores Wednesday night through Thursday morning and again Thursday night through Friday morning. Lows will drop into the 30s in most areas, with some 20s in the typically colder Southern Tier valleys and North Country. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The pattern will become quite amplified across North America by next weekend, allowing a deep trough to carve out across the Great Lakes region. While model and ensemble guidance is in good agreement with regards to the large scale pattern evolution, the finer synoptic scale details remain uncertain with the strength and track of a surface low moving through the Great Lakes Sunday through Monday. Another southern stream shortwave may partially phase with the digging longwave trough and support a stronger surface low over the Great Lakes, which would bring greater impacts in terms of wind and rain. Less phased model solutions would still support some rain along the advancing cold front, but less risk of strong winds. Given the model uncertainty, it will likely still be a few days before more specific impacts of rain and wind become more clear, but expect unsettled weather Sunday through early next week at a minimum. Temperatures will briefly surge into the 70s Saturday just ahead of the trough, with a notable cooling trend then setting in by early next week as the deep trough becomes established across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lingering clouds from a departing coastal system will continue to result in a mixture of MVFR and VFR cigs this morning. Periods of IFR cigs will also be possible early. Patchy fog will bring the potential for some lower vsbys, especially where clouds can clear some. Vsbys with fog down to IFR at times will be possible, especially south of Lake Ontario. Today, after early morning clouds push out of the area, mainly VFR flight conditions are expected. Tonight, mainly VFR with increasing mid-level clouds. Some lowering cloud bases to near MVFR will be possible early Wednesday morning across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier. A cold front crossing the region late this evening into the early morning hours will increase winds some out of the north and northwest, especially closer to the lakes. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Winds out of the northeast will weaken while also shifting to the north today as the pressure gradient over the region weakens briefly. Winds should remain below 10 knots this afternoon. Winds will increase out of the northwest and shift to the north this evening through tonight, first as the pressure gradient increases, and then as a cold front tracks across the region. Winds will have the best potential to reach SCA levels over the eastern half of Lake Ontario, with the rest of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie expected to be at least near advisory levels. Winds will remain elevated through Thursday evening, especially on Lake Ontario as the pressure gradient increases over the region with a sfc high moving into the lower Great Lakes and a coastal system to the east. At least choppy conditions will exists through most of Thursday, with SCA conditions possible on the eastern portion of Lake Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...SW MARINE...SW