Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
750 FXUS61 KBUF 101639 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1239 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and some humidity will build through Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front. The cold front will bring a chance of a few showers and storms Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Heat continues to builds but quiet weather expected through Monday. The warmest locales will be along the lake plains and Genesee Valley. Temps firmly in the 80s to low 90s. Clear and calm conditions persist tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A rex blocking pattern over the East Coast and Atlantic Ocean, will gradually give way to a trough sliding east across the upper Midwest Monday night through Tuesday. Ahead of the trough`s arrival, warm moist air will advect into the region. The combination of the heat and humidity will support heat indices in the low to mid 90s Tuesday, where some locations across the lake plains south of Lake Ontario and the Genesee value may reach Heat Advisory criteria. As the trough crosses the central and lower Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday, a cold front will drop south across the region. Ahead of its arrival Tuesday night, diurnal instability combined with increasing moisture will support a few scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon across far WNY. Then, expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday as the front crosses the region. Additionally, with the frontal passage Wednesday, a "cooler" air mass will grace the region returning temperatures into the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A trough will exit the Northeast Thursday, resulting in a cooler air mass to remain overhead and lingering moisture and lift to lie across the New York-Pennsylvania state border, thus supporting a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Brief ridging will then slide across the area late in the week and into the start of the weekend ahead of the next trough. Long range guidance continues to have some discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of the trough, however compared to previous runs, a drier solution looks to be setting up. This being said, after a couple of days of dry weather Friday and Saturday, the next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected at all terminals through Monday. Outlook... Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower across far western terminals in the afternoon. Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms and associated brief/local CIG/VSBY restrictions. Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will remain anchored along the east coast through Monday, providing an extended period of light winds and minimal wave action. A light southerly breeze each night and morning will give way to onshore winds in the 7-10 knot range each afternoon as local lake breeze circulations develop. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR/Hitchcock