053
FNUS71 KBTV 181456
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Big Hollow Fire...VTFPR
National Weather Service Burlington VT
956 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 EST on November 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front will push across the region this morning, bringing
low chances for additional showers this afternoon. Overnight
precipitation brought little in the way of appreciable rainfall,
and any rain this afternoon will be just a few hundredths at
best. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through the day, and
minimum relative humidity values will be around 70 percent. Light
and variable winds this morning will turn to the west northwest
after the frontal passage, becoming sustained at 5 to 10 mph with
gusts to around 20 mph possible.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers late in the morning. Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon, then slight
                    chance of rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 47.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 7 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 12 mph shifting to the northwest 14
                    to 17 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........94  91  84  81  81  82  83  81
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  20  20  30  30  30  30  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............42  44  45  46  47  46  45  43
RH..............86  82  79  79  74  76  76  79
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   7   8   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.8   9   10  12  14  15  16  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.7
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.6   8   12  14  15  16  17  16
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........74  63  70  75  79  79  78  76  77  77  78  76
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............42  41  41  40  39  39  39  39  38  38  38  37
RH..............79  82  82  85  89  89  89  85  89  89  89  92
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  12  12  10  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.17  17  17  17  17  16  15  16  16  16  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.15  13  13  13  15  15  14  13  13  13  13  10
Haines index....3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........74  72  69  68  67  64  60  55  49  44  39  38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............36  37  38  39  40  42  42  43  44  42  41  40
RH..............96  96  92  89  85  79  79  76  73  76  76  79
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..9   9   8   9   9   9   9   8   8   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  15  15  15  14  14  13  12  10  9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  10  15  16  16  16  16  15  14  12  10  9
Haines index....2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Hastings
Requested by...Dan Dillner
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426826.0/BTV
.DELDT 11/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dan.dillner@vermont.gov