822
FNUS71 KBTV 061344
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Morgan Road Fire...VTFPR
National Weather Service Burlington VT
844 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 EST on November 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Breezy southwesterly winds are expected to continue through the
morning, with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds are expected to shift west
between 1 PM and 3 PM this afternoon as a cold front passes
through the region, with winds gusts trending towards 15 to 25 mph
for the overnight hours. Temperatures will be warm today, with
minimum relative humidity values around 60 to 70 percent. A few
showers will be possible into the afternoon with no thunderstorms
expected, although a wetting rain is not expected with only a few
hundreths expected. Winds will slightly shift to the northwest for
Thursday, with another period of breezy winds on Friday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the morning. Chance of showers
                    early in the afternoon, then slight chance of
                    showers early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 13 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 32 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 21 to 28 mph decreasing to 16 to 17 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........68     73     81     74     60
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     20     10     0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............60     64     65     64     60
RH..............87     78     78     81     90
20 ft wind......SW 16  SW 14  W 16   W 14   W 13
20 ft wind gust.31     31     28     24     21
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   2600   2500   2000   1300
Transport wind..SW 21  W 28   W 25   W 21   W 16
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........50     40     28     45     51     54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............58     56     54     53     52     51
RH..............93     93     93     93     93     86
20 ft wind......W 13   W 12   W 12   W 10   W 10   W 12
20 ft wind gust.21     20     20     17     17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....900    700    700    700    600    800
Transport wind..W 14   W 14   W 14   W 12   W 12   W 14
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........57     59     68     66     55     40
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     10     10     0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............49     51     54     55     53     50
RH..............89     89     80     74     74     74
20 ft wind......W 9    W 8    NW 9   NW 10  NW 9   NW 8
20 ft wind gust.14     13     17     17     16     14
Mix hgt (ft)....700    2400   3000   3300   3000   2500
Transport wind..W 13   NW 17  NW 22  NW 21  NW 20  NW 17
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Duell/Kremer
Requested by...Dan Dillner
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2425904.0/BTV
.DELDT 11/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dan.dillner@vermont.gov