609
FXUS61 KBTV 181745
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
145 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds, along with the start of
a warming trend which will continue through the weekend, featuring
late-summerlike temperatures on Sunday along with breezy conditions.
Widespread rain Sunday night into Monday will follow, along with a
return to cooler and cloudier conditions. Most of the showers next
week will be light with little impact on ongoing drought conditions,
but fire weather concerns will be limited.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 931 AM EDT Saturday...Radar is showing a few weak returns
entering the SLV attm, so have updated to increase pops into the
15 to 25% range to cover this activity. Expect most of these
returns to dissipate over northern NY in the next 1 to 2 hours
as a surface warm frnt lifts north into southern Canada.
Otherwise, did tweak cloud grids to increase coverage thru the
morning hours.

Previous discussion below:
Ridging will continue to shift eastward across the region today
into tonight, keeping the weather dry. A weak warm front lifts
up to our west in the meantime, leading to mainly just increased
clouds, especially over northern NY. Some light returns have
been noted on radar already this morning, but given the dry
airmass that`s in place, don`t anticipate much precipitation,
perhaps just a few sprinkles at most. Light and variable winds
will pick up a bit out of the south late in the day and
overnight as a low-level jet moves over the region. After a
chilly start to the day, expect afternoon highs to top out in
the 60s in most spots. The increasing south flow overnight will
limit cooling, so don`t anticipate tonight to be as cold as the
past couple of nights. Lows will mainly in the 40s, though some
of the more sheltered locations east of the Greens and in the
Adirondacks could dip into the upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 AM EDT Saturday...The ridge axis will push to our east on
Sunday, setting us up for a mild and breezy day ahead of a low
pressure system incoming from the west. It`s a favorable setup for
gusty south to southeast winds channeling under a low inversion.
Gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible in the Champlain Valley,
along with the northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens,
with localized spots perhaps approaching 40 mph at times. Gusts
should ramp up during the daylight hours Sunday, but they could
persist right through Sunday night, especially for areas from the
Champlain Valley eastward as rain will be slow to arrive there (more
on this below). While moisture will gradually increase through the
day, near critical fire conditions are expected, and any fires that
start could quickly become difficult to control.

The other impact from the increasing south flow will be warm
temperatures, more typical of late summer in some locations rather
than mid fall. The St Lawrence Valley in particular will be quite
mild owing to downsloping off the Adirondacks; near record highs are
expected as temperatures will warm well into the 70s and perhaps
close to 80F. Elsewhere, it won`t be quite as warm but still very
pleasant with highs generally in the mid 60s to low/mid 70s.

The parent low pressure will slide by well to our north Sunday night
into Monday, dragging a cold front along in its wake. Meanwhile, the
upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes and become negatively
tilted, eventually forming a closed low nearly directly overhead by
Monday afternoon. The aforementioned south/southeast flow will
advect moisture northward ahead of the incoming front and upper
trough, and expect a swath of rain to push eastward in response.
Given the dry airmass that will be in place, it will take a while
for the column to moisten up enough to allow precipitation to reach
the ground, but expect rain to finally move into northern NY near or
shortly after midnight and then spread eastward into VT by daybreak
Monday. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

The frontal boundary will slow on Monday as a triple-point low
develops in response to the deepening upper trough overhead.
Widespread showers are expected for much of the day, though there
may be a bit of a break mid-late afternoon with a bit of drier air
wrapping into the developing surface low. The rain could be moderate
to briefly heavy at times. Given the strong upper low, a few rumbles
of thunder will be possible, though expected coverage (or lack
thereof) was not enough to include the mention of thunderstorms in
the forecast at this time. Winds should abate somewhat with the
steadier precipitation, but gusts in excess of 25 mph will be
possible, especially if we do see any drier breaks. Rainfall totals
through Monday evening will range from a quarter to half inch over
the Northeast Kingdom to a half inch to 1.25 inch elsewhere; the
highest totals will be over the High Peaks and along the spine of
the central/southern Greens. With ample cloud cover and the cold
pool aloft, Monday will be quite a bit colder than Sunday, though
highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, which is still near to
slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 144 PM EDT Saturday...Shower activity will continue Tuesday
morning particularly across far northeastern Vermont and in the
Adirondacks as a dynamic negatively tiled trough exists to the
northeast. There is still some timing uncertainty as to when the
system actually departs between early Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday
evening, but regardless brief ridging will build in Tuesday night
with weakening flow aloft and at the surface. If winds can decouple
Tuesday night, with the added moisture from the prior days rain,
there is potential for some patchy fog in the usual river valleys.

A larger upper low will be right on the heels of the departing low,
however, by early Wednesday morning. Like the prior system, it will
acquire a negatively tilted appearance which will aid in increased
south-north moisture advection from the Gulf and Atlantic. An
initial band of precipitation looks likely during the day Wednesday
with more scattered showers following, most of which look to be
confined to the higher terrain. The negative tilting of the trough
will also help in the movement of a vort max downstream into parts
of eastern Vermont which should aid in the development of a triple
point low and cyclogenesis along the Connecticut River Valley.
Resurgence of moisture and precipitation looks increasingly
favorable across eastern Vermont and especially the Northeast
Kingdom Wednesday night into Thursday. As this developing low
departs off to the northeast on Thursday, cyclonic flow from
occluding upper low will remain with cyclonic flow and continued
precipitation chances through the end of the week.

The 540dam thickness line behind the upper low should be able to
swing southward over northern New York with the strong occlusion
that the system will undergo. 925mb temperatures show sub freezing
values which would indicate possible snow across the mountain
summits with cyclonic flow lingering into Thursday/Friday. Model
soundings suggest the freezing level could be as low as 1500 ft,
however, with surface temperatures not able to cool off as
efficiently, snow levels will likely reside at 2500 ft or higher.
Which is to say, precipitation in the form of wet snow atop mountain
summits is increasingly favorable by the end of the week.

All in all, beneficial rain up to half an inch, limited to the
progressive nature of the systems, will help to stabilize many
drought stricken areas. Although, it does not look to be enough to
lead to any drought improvement. Temperatures will be fairly close
to climatological norms in the 50s during the day with a range of
lows in the upper 20s to lower 40s throughout the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing
through the next 24 hours. Winds will continue to be light and at
times variable through at least the next 12 hours. Clouds generally
4000-6000 ft agl associated with a broad warm front will continue
over northern New York and northern and central Vermont through 00-
03Z varying between scattered and broken at times. Skies will
generally tend towards clear overnight and into tomorrow. A low-
level jet associated with an approaching low pressure system will
begin to nose into the area late tonight leading to prevailing
southeasterly flow at all terminals. Winds and gusts will quickly
increase tomorrow by 14-16Z with sustained winds 10 to 15 knots, and
gusts up to 20 to 25 knots by the end of this TAF period, especially
at BTV/PBG/EFK/MPV. Winds will continue to increase well into the
day tomorrow.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for VTZ030>035.
NY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for NYZ202-205.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig