865
FXUS61 KBTV 241121
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
721 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rounds of much needed rain will take place as a slow moving front
helps produce showers and a few thunderstorms across the region.
Gusty south winds are expected early today, especially within any
thunderstorms, before slowly abating. Cooler air returns for
the midweek, and a few showers will remain possible as weak
disturbances will periodically pass nearby. A well-defined
trough will shift south this Friday, which will reinforce cool
air and bring a return to dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...It`s here! With eager anticipation we`ve
awaited this slow moving cold front to bring us much needed rain. At
this time, there are three prongs with broken showers and a brief
bolt of lightning or two sliding east. Moderate rainfall rates
within convection and the fact at least 3 opportunities for hit-or-
miss rain exist with each round that should ensure no one gets
missed out completely. Averaging across the basin, totals should
range roughly 0.20-0.50" for northern New York with locally higher
totals along the southern upslope regions, like Newcomb or
Olmstedville, and about 0.33-0.75" across Vermont. Per high res
guidance, some locally higher totals up to 1.50" are possible
(10-20% chance), and up to 2" at the very high end. Some terrain
effects will be evident, given a low-level jet around 35 to 40
knots. We`ve seen BTV gust to 35 mph, and this will continue
overnight towards dawn, and then begin to subside as the core of the
jet lifts northeast. Still, breezy today, with gusts 15 to 25 mph
likely, except across for areas sheltered from south winds.

Today`s severe potential still appears very low. Although there will
be sufficient shear, we`ll lack better instability due to having
multiple rounds of precipitation. Still, stronger storms could
produce gusts as high as 40 to 45 mph with the focus of this
potential for northern New York.

Monday will be a near repeat as the frontal boundary stalls due to a
coastal low imparting some southeasterly flow. Excellent confluence
along the boundary as the upper low continues its steady eastward
progress will allow showers to redevelop along the trailing cold
front. Again, a few embedded rumbles capable of gusty winds could
occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...Cooler weather makes a return on Tuesday as
the upper low moves towards the Gulf of St. Lawrence. An embedded
vort max will cross northern New York and Vermont with some upper
level moisture in a shift to west-northwest flow. This should allow
isolated to scattered showers, especially along northwest facing
slopes with dry conditions in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York
and much of southern Vermont. Highs will likely remain in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...A deep upper level trough will continue to
meander across the region next week, bringing cooler conditions.
Chances for diurnally driven showers will continue to linger toward
the middle of next week as the area remains under broad cyclonic
flow with several disturbances pass nearby. Temperatures will be on
the cooler side during this time frame with abundant cloud cover and
northwesterly flow, with high temperatures on the mid 60s to mid 70s
for both Wednesday and Thursday with overnight lows dropping into
the 40s to low 50s. More widespread precipitation looks to arrive
Thursday night with the latest guidance supporting a cold front
pushing across the region, although there is still plenty of
uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this feature this
far out. Behind this boundary, another period of ridging and cooler
conditions will build back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail
throughout most of the TAF period. Several rounds of showers will
continue to move through the region tonight and through the day
tomorrow as a front passes through the region from the west. While
mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail, brief reductions in
visibility may be possible if a shower passes directly over any
terminals, and any stronger showers may produce lightning or gusty
winds. Since there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding timing
and coverage of any precipitation, PROB30 groups were used for this
potential. After 00Z, ceilings may begin to lower at some terminals
given the abundant moisture, with some MVFR conditions possible.
Wind gusts up to 30 knots will be possible at KBTV this morning due
to channeled southerly flow, with gusts between 15 to 25 knots
expected elsewhere during this time. Winds will gradually begin to
lessen towards the end of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect overnight tonight, and will
likely continue through Sunday. South winds are already 15 to 25
kt, per latest obs. Although there may be a bit of a lull around
sunset this evening, expect winds will increase and remain
gusty overnight as the relatively warm lake waters allow mixing
of a low level jet. Winds will be strongest over the broad lake,
where sustained 20 to 30 kt winds are expected; 15 to 25 kt
will prevail elsewhere. Waves building to 2 to 4 feet, and
wouldn`t be surprised to see higher waves over the broad lake.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...Hastings