831
FXUS61 KBTV 020223
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1023 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezes will continue this evening before becoming lighter overnight
through the day on Wednesday. The next frontal system will move
through the region Wednesday night and Thursday bringing mixed
precipitation including snow, sleet, rain, and freezing rain, and
gusty winds. Dry conditions return Thursday night through Friday
with mild temperatures before another round of precipitation and a
cooling trend occur over the weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1021 PM EDT Tuesday...Main focus of this update was to
decrease hourly dew points as significantly drier air flows in
from the northwest. Skies are also trending a bit more clear
than previously forecast, though high clouds will soon
overspread the area tonight. Have increased winds slightly in
the Champlain Valley as we continue to see sustained winds 10-15
knots. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

Previous discussion:

* A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northeastern
  Vermont from 8 PM Wednesday through 11 AM Thursday. A storm
  system will bring breezy to gusty winds and mixed
  precipitation with accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing
  rain. Isolated power outages are possible and the Thursday
  morning commute may become hazardous.

Breezy winds this afternoon with subside late this evening and
overnight with clear skies and cold temperatures. Lows overnight
will dip into the teens in the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont
with upper tees and low 20s for broader valleys. RH will drop
Wednesday afternoon into the 25-35% range while winds transition
from a northerly flow regime to southerly late Wednesday afternoon.

Precipitation chances increase Wednesday night as a frontal system
tracks through the Northeast. Character of this system will be
somewhat similar to the last one with primary concerns for mixed
precipitation and increasing wind gusts. Fortunately, the system`s
speed will push the transition from snow to mixed precipitation to
rain for most locations. The exception will be northeastern Vermont
where cold air will be more difficult to scour out overnight.

Precipitation: Precip will start as snow late Wednesday before
thermal profiles warm aloft supporting a transition to sleet for
many locations, and freezing rain for portions of the Adirondacks
and eastern Vermont. Best chances for accumulations in excess of
0.01" of ice will be northeastern Vermont with accumulating snow up
to a couple/three inches. The combination of precipitation types and
potential for up to 0.25" of ice accumulation warranted the issuance
of a Winter Weather Advisory in Orange, Washington, Lamoille,
Orleans, Caledonia And Essex counties of Vermont. Elsewhere, dry
surface conditions will promote more wet-bulbing keeping snow longer
with a faster transition to all rain. Winds will result in shadowing
along northern slopes, especially in the Adirondacks.

Winds: A 50-75kt 850mb low level jet is progged to move across the
region with this storm system. These are anomalously strong speeds
and will result in potential for gusty conditions for downslope and
channeled locations. Surface direction will be out of the south-
southeast with north-northwest aspects favored for downslope and the
northern Champlain Valley favored for channeled winds. However, this
jet will be coincident with precipitation resulting in drag and a
lowering of max potential speeds. Gusts will generally be 25-40 mph
Wednesday night, but could have "bursts" to 50 mph at times when
ducting winds break trough the low level stable layer. Gusts
continue into Thursday and increase for some locations; please see
the discussion in the Short Term section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday remains on track to be a warm and
breezy day for most of our region, as yet another strong low
pressure system passes well to our northwest. In Vermont, winds
largely will be significantly strong, aside from the early morning
strong channeled winds near Lake Champlain. As temperatures rise and
become substantially warmer than the lake air, the gusts will relax,
although portions of the eastern Champlain Valley could still see
some 40 MPH gusts through late morning. Now within the range of
having some higher resolution model guidance, the main change with
this forecast was to further enhance winds/wind gusts, particularly
during the afternoon into early Thursday night as winds turn more
southwesterly, and eventually westerly, with good mixing potential
as temperatures cool aloft amidst diurnal heating. The strongest
gusts are favored in northern New York where the topography is more
favorable for enhanced wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon
as a dry slot in the system moves across the area. Wind Advisories
will likely be needed with much of the area likely to see numerous
wind gusts in the 40 to 50 MPH range, and then expect that a more
localized 50 to 55 MPH zone will be in northern Franklin and
especially western Clinton and Essex Counties in New York. A potent
jet, unseasonably strong in the 60 to 70 knot range at 850
millibars, will be present during this period. By evening, stronger
pressure rises will be occurring and low level westerly flow will
develop and weaken slightly.

Secondarily, rain will taper off in the morning and then maybe some
isolated, light showers will develop along a pre-frontal trough.
Relatively high chances of these isolated showers will be in
eastern/southern Vermont, but generally the environment looks very
dry with too little heat to overcome the lack of moisture to drive
any convection. Temperatures will be somewhat like Monday, although
there eastern Vermont is more likely to break out into warm air
during the afternoon. Highs in most places will be in the 60s, and
dew points a bit elevated in the mid 40s to low 50s. With post-
frontal air Thursday night coming in from the west, cold air
advection will be modest with temperatures remaining above freezing
areawide. As such, winds will quickly taper off overnight, as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 401 PM EDT Tuesday...Friday clearly is the pick of the
week/long term forecast for outdoor activities. Modest northwest
winds will accompany seasonably mild air and plenty of sun. High
temperatures will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s areawide.

More impactful weather is possible this weekend, although signals
for more freezing rain/wintry weather are relatively low at this
time. Per the latest ensemble cluster analysis, a multi-model blend
with a more amplified trough/ridge scenario across the country leads
to greater risk of meaningful ice accumulation on Saturday at the
onset of precipitation in the eastern Adirondacks and
central/eastern Vermont. Given the inherent uncertainty in this
scenario, for now the forecast is all rain or snow, and mainly rain
as the storm track is yet again forced to our west with a strong
ridge centered over the western Atlantic in a stagnant pattern.
Precipitation may occur in a few waves beginning Saturday morning
through Sunday night until a cold front sweeps through. There is
decent model agreement on greatest rainfall occurring in southern
areas. Most likely timeframe of heavier rain currently looks to be
in the Saturday night through Sunday morning period, with some
suggestions of more than 1" of precipitation in 24 hours in portions
of Essex County, New York. Following this system, there has been
good agreement in long range models of a colder than normal period
for early next week, which will promote chances of higher elevation
snow showers on both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Conditions will remain VFR through the
forecast period. Main aviation concern will be gusts 20 to 30
kts resulting in some minor turbulence through ridge level.
After 00-06Z, winds decrease with more ideal conditions for
aviators. The next storm system will move in after 21z, but
strong turbulence/LLWS associated with a potent low level 850mb
jet and potential for mixed/clear icing will be hazards
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Definite RA, Definite SN,
Definite PL, Chance FZRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40 kt. Likely RA, Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Likely RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
RA.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Storm
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles