194
FXUS61 KBTV 022334
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
634 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow will come to an end this evening. On Wednesday,
southwesterly winds will develop leading to increasing lake-
effect snow and with the passage of an Arctic cold front,
heavier snow showers and snow squalls will become organized
overnight into Thursday. Frigid conditions Thursday night will
moderate slightly into the weekend, but temperatures will be
mainly sub-freezing temperatures through the rest of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 619 PM EST Tuesday...

Have increased PoPs to show some lingering snow over the next
couple hours as we continue to see persistent snow in places as
it comes to an end this evening.

Previous discussion:

* Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through 1 AM in
  portions of southern Vermont where the heaviest snow of the
  event is possible through the evening hours

* Winter Weather Advisories are now in effect through 7 PM in
  much of northern Vermont and Essex County, New York, where
  snow will gradually diminish, last in central and eastern
  portions of Vermont

Through early afternoon, a widespread 2 to 5 inches of fluffy snow
has fallen in Vermont, mainly 1 to 2 inches in northeastern New
York, and under an inch in the St. Lawrence Valley. These
amounts are right on target, although a little low in portions
of south central Vermont. A "make-or-break" period of heavier
snow is currently on the doorstep of those southern areas as
heavier snow pivots in from the southwest. This band should be
associated with increasing 700 millibar frontogenesis on the
northwestern flank of the 850 millibar low that is closing off
along the Mid- Atlantic coast. It will quickly move
northeastward following the intensifying surface low, with the
back end of steady snow shrinking back from the northwest such
that snow will continue longest across eastern and southeastern
Vermont. Even there, aside from perhaps southeastern Windsor
County snow will wind down by 1 AM.

A narrow ridge of high pressure will be over the region tomorrow
morning. Morning cloudiness will tend to scatter with abundant
mid and high clouds quickly replacing the low clouds, and
modest northwest winds will become light and variable briefly
before turning southwesterly. By tomorrow night, as mid level
temperatures start to fall ahead of an Arctic cold front, a lake
response will support an axis of snow showers off of Lake
Ontario, which will tend to blossom pretty quickly with chances
of snow showers extending into northern Vermont, especially
after midnight. Meanwhile, scattered snow showers will likely
develop in northern New York and sharpen towards daybreak as the
incoming Arctic front approaches. Snowfall amounts in
southeastern St. Lawrence County may warrant a Winter Weather
Advisory during this period, but otherwise light accumulations
under an inch should be widespread while locally some amounts
could be in the 1 to 2" range. Gusty winds, mainly convectively
driven as nocturnal stability limits mixing, will be possible
as well, contributing to potentially hazardous travel conditions
along with the snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 224 PM EST Tuesday...Thursday will be blustery and cold
with snow squalls possible as well with an arctic front pushing
across our area. By Thursday morning the line of squalls should
be roughly bisecting our forecast area, then tracking
southeastward through the morning hours. Drier and quieter
weather will return for Thursday night as surface and upper
level ridges build over the area. Highs on Thursday will reach
the lower 20s to around 30, colder in northern New York. Surface
winds will be out of the northwest and up to about 20 kts
sustained near to Lake Champlain, with gusts up to 30 kts.
Minimum temperatures Thursday night will drop sharply into the
single digits above and below zero. A flash freeze will be
possible Thursday evening as temperatures drop sharply behind
the arctic cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 224 PM EST Tuesday...Active weather will continue through
the next week as a large upper level trough and waves of
shortwave energy bring chances of precipitation periodically.
Friday will be cold with maximum temperatures only reaching the
teens to lower 20s. Temperatures will warm slightly for
Saturday, but another cold front will usher in another period of
colder temperatures for the beginning of next week with highs
once again in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Snow continues to bring widespread IFR
conditions to northern New York and Vermont this evening, though
we`re starting to see improvements in visibilities at northern
New York sites as snow pulls eastward. Ceilings are highly
variable at all sites, anywhere from 300 to 3500 feet above
ground level. We expect snow to come to an end by around
04Z-12Z Wednesday, earlier for northern New York and lasting
longest in southern Vermont, potentially lasting through 15Z for
site RUT. We`re also forecasting widespread MVFR ceilings to
replace IFR around this same time, though models show some
variability on how long IFR cigs could persist. Conditions
should be heading towards VFR conditions by 11Z-16Z, but this
may depend on how long northwesterly flow lingers into daytime
hours tomorrow. Models indicate we`ll see a switch to
south/southwesterly at most sites in the morning, and we may
even see some gusts 15 to 20 knots across northern New York in
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     VTZ003>009-017.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ010-011-
     018>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ034-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Storm
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV