424
FXUS61 KBTV 092311
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
611 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Calm weather conditions will result in a cool evening and
Sunday morning. South winds will return Sunday afternoon with
temperatures trending warmer and a warm front approaching. Rain
showers are likely Sunday night into Monday. Then, a cold front
will drop south Monday night into Tuesday with a few mountain
snow showers before the system departs. Cool, dry weather will
take place over the middle of the week, followed by a weak
weather disturbance possibly approaching towards the end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 607 PM EST Saturday...Not much to talk about with this
evening update as clear skies are allowing for temperatures to
fall quickly, especially with the weakening winds. A cool night
remains in store for the region with lows in the teens and 20s.

Previous Discussion...By Sunday morning, the upper ridge will
crest and southerly flow begin to moderate our cool air mass.
High clouds currently over the Great Lakes region will shift
towards our area. Despite filtered sunlight, we should still
rise into the 50s across much of the region. A warm front will
approach late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours. The
trend of a weaker front has reversed somewhat, and the overall
timing has also begun to trend back towards its original
position as well. So have slid the general timing of highest
PoPs forward a couple hours, but otherwise, everything looks on
track for numerous showers to quickly lift northeast with about
a tenth of an inch. Towards Monday morning, precipitation will
be in the process of scattering out and transitioning towards a
more orographic regime.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EST Saturday...An unsettled start to the week is
expected as widespread precipitation associated with a warm front
moving through the region becomes showery. A few breaks in the
showers may be possible as we head into the afternoon, although it
will still be a bit dreary with plenty of cloud cover across the
region and breezy winds. The warmest temperatures of the week are
expected Monday afternoon, with highs in the 50s to near 60F in a
few locations, which is about 10 degrees or so warmer that
climatological normals for this time of year. Shower activity will
redevelop Monday evening through the overnight hours as a cold front
passes through the region, which much of the shower activity focused
across the northern half of the forecast area. As the front moves
through, winds will become more northwesterly, with upslope showers
becoming more favorable. Snow levels will lower Monday night, with
some snow mixing in, and light snow accumulations possible across
the higher terrain, although any accumulations to be less than an
inch. Overall rainfall amounts will be a few tenths of an inch,
ranging from 0.5 inches across the Adirondacks and northern Greens
to only 0.1 across parts of southern Vermont. Temperatures overnight
Monday will cool into the 30s to near 40 in the broad valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Saturday...A few lingering upslope showers will
continue Tuesday morning, before high pressure begins to build in
for the middle of the week. A period of dry weather and mostly sunny
skies can be expected for Wednesday. As we head into the later half
of the week, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty
regarding the next feature that approaches the region. The latest
12Z GFS shows a shortwave traversing across the region, bringing
another round of showers this week. Meanwhile, the latest 12 ECMWF
shows surface high pressure as the dominant feature, with the
shortwave falling apart before it even reaches the region. Given the
diverging solutions, continued to stick with the NBM for
precipitation, showing some slight chance to chance PoPs. If the
more robust GFS solution is correct, some snow accumulation could be
possible across the higher elevations, but it still remains highly
uncertain. Temperatures look to be seasonably cool for the upcoming
week, with highs generally in the 40s and overnight lows generally
in the 20s to near freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Winds have abated with light and variable
winds prevailing across the region. Toward sunrise, winds will
become southerly at 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 18 knots
possible at KBTV Sunday afternoon. Clear skies will likely
continue through daybreak with high clouds passing overhead and
gradually lowering through the TAF period. Rain is expected to
hold off at all TAF sites through the forecast period.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Veterans Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty winds have begun to slowly subside. Parts of Vermont are
still periodically gusting to about 20 mph. Relative humidity
values range between about 28 and 38 percent across the region.
Winds will more quickly slacken after sunset, and strong
radiational cooling will promote good relative humidity recovery
overnight.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Clay/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Clay
FIRE WEATHER...BTV