027
FXUS61 KBTV 030803
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
403 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A band of precipitation with embedded rumbles of thunder will
continue to lift north across our region this morning. A wintry mix
across portions of northern New York and eastern and central Vermont
will change to plain rain by mid morning, before ending. Gusty south
winds are expected over northern New York and parts of the northern
Champlain Valley today with gusts 45 to 55 mph possible. A few
isolated power outage are expected. Much lighter winds develop
tonight with dry conditions prevailing into Friday. Temperatures
warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Thursday...No changes to the winter weather advisory
or wind advisory at this time.

Crnt radar is showing an impressive line of moderate to heavy
precipitation with plenty of lightning lifting across northern NY
into southern VT. NAM/NAM3KM continues to suggest elevated MUCAPE
values of 300 to 700 J/kg acrs our northern NY area into central
VT,helping to produce all the lightning. With temperatures hovering
near freezing across portions of northern NY and parts of central
VT, the threat for sleet and freezing rain continues. Did note the
MSS ASOS measured ice accumulation of 0.09 thru 06z, but thinking
minimal impacts due to temps near 0C. Hourly rainfall rates have
been in the 0.10 to 0.20 range with 3 hour amounts between 0.25 and
0.50 inches per NY State Mesonet Obs. This band of precip wl
continue to lift quickly acrs northern NY and central/northern VT
thru 12z, before a brief break develops. Its this brief window where
localized gusty winds up to 50 mph wl be possible in the northern
CPV and northern slopes of the Dacks. Meanwhile, another round of
showers with embedded rumbles of thunder wl swing from west to east
acrs our cwa btwn 12z-15z this morning, with locally heavy downpours
expected. Given stronger convective elements wl need to monitor for
the potential of mixing down stronger winds btwn 925mb and 850mb to
the sfc with this line. Hydro with convection wl need to be watched
closely, see hydro discussion below.

Greatest potential for icing continues to be acrs central/eastern
VT, including the NEK, where crnt temps are holding in the 28F to
33F with band of moderate precip approaching. Still anticipating
local ice accumulation of 0.10 to 0.30 of an inch is likely with
areas of slick travel and isolated power outages possible. Over
northern NY temps are slowly climbing above freezing and feel threat
for additional ice accumulation should end by 7 AM this morning.

TYX and CXX VAD wind profiles continue to show strengthening 925mb
to 850mb wind fields of 45 to 60 knots as strong waa continues on
southwest flow aloft. This advection has quickly pushed the 850mb OC
line well north of the International Border attm, which has resulted
in the mixed precip. Soundings at BTV indicate a very sharp thermal
inversion around 925mb with top of the mixed layer winds of 45 to 50
knots. This inversion height, combined with CXX VAD showing 50 knots
at 925mb should result in locally gusty winds of 45 to 50 mph in the
northern CPV during the break in precip btwn 10z-14z this morning.
Localized gusts to 45 mph have already occurred at Lake Placid and
PBG and Chazy. After secondary wave of precip moves acrs our cwa,
additional gusty winds wl redevelop this aftn/evening acrs much of
northern NY into northwest VT. Soundings show quickly deepening of
the mixed layer under modest caa aloft and warming bl conditions, to
support gusts 45 to 55 mph. Crnt wind headlines look good. Temps
should warm into the mid 50s eastern VT to mid 60s CPV and parts of
the SLV. Weak broken line of showers associated with secondary cold
frnt wl occur this aftn acrs our cwa.

Tonight into Friday is much quieter with lighter winds and dry
conditions prevailing. Lows should fall back into the 30s to near
40F tonight and warm into the 40s to lower 50s on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 359 AM EDT Thursday...Upper level and surface ridging begins
Friday night but eventually return flow and disturbance along the
backside will bring in clouds and threaten precipitation toward
morning but it should stay just SW of our CWA through daybreak
Saturday.

This will allow temperatures to fall near or below freezing for many
come daybreak Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Thursday...Pretty much the same discussion as
yesterday at this time.

Big picture is the SE Upper Level ridge and the deep Four Corners
upper low and surface reflection around TX Friday night-Saturday and
an elongated stationary front that elongates northeast into the OH
Rvr Vly.

It looks like the strength of this SE Ridge will likely slow the
progression of the stationary boundary and may allow multiple
surface lows to travel along the boundary and across our CWA.

Initially it looks like the first surface reflection moves into the
Oh Vly and into western NY by Saturday midday-early afternoon with
precipitation overspreading the area in the morning. Initially
temperatures are near/above freezing with dewpoints in the 20s with
temps rising just as the precipitation moves in and soundings show a
developing warm nose aloft. There will be an opportunity for some
wet bulbing and mixed snow/sleet/ freezing rain for an hour/two
before changing to rain for higher elevations but no impacts
expected at this time.

After this initial surge, there may be a lull in activity until more
waves of low pressure ride up along the front late Saturday night-
Sunday. By then...warm air advection will allow for primarily rain
across the CWA.

On Sunday...northern stream upper low near James Bay rotates some
energy with the timing and strength looking a bit more clearer then
yesterday thus the boundary should be progressive enough for steady
rain becoming showery as it exits the region by Sunday evening.

By Monday...the weekend system is east while we await a strong
shortwave to round the bottom of the northern upper low across the
Great Lakes Monday and across our area Monday night. This will
eventually bring colder air with rain to snow showers Monday night
and especially Tuesday.

Tuesday looks like we`ll still be under the influence of the
northern stream upper low with broad, cold cyclonic flow across the
area and the longwave trof axis still rotating through for
possible snow/rain showers.

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be breezy between departing
offshore low pressure and building high pressure for later
Wednesday. Continued -shsn will diminish with time lasting in the
mountains the latest.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...A wide range of precipitation types and
associated flight categories currently across our taf sites with
a mix of VFR/MVFR. Light freezing rain continues at KMSS with on
and off snow at MPV, while other sites have limited impacts from
precip attm. However, a band of moderate to locally heavy precip
wl lift from south to north over our taf sites in the next 1 to
3 hours with vis trending toward MVFR and a mix of MVFR/IFR
cigs, especially MPV/SLK. A rumble or two of thunder is likely
given upstream lightning activity thru 12z. Precip wl fall
mostly in the form of rain, except some freezing rain/sleet
possible at EFK/MPV and MSS, before changing to all rain by 12z.
Winds continue to strengthen at 2500 to 4500 ft agl with values
in the 45 to 55 knots range, per latest TYX and CXX VAD
profiles. These winds wl result in areas of moderate turbulence
and wind shear thru this morning, with localized gusts up to 35
knots likely at BTV btwn 10z-15z. As mixing improves this aftn,
especially northern NY taf sites, expect localized gusts 35 to
45 knots at MSS/SLK and 25 to 35 knots at PBG/BTV/MPV and EFK.
The mix of MVFR/IFR should trend toward VFR by 18z as drier air
aloft mixes toward the sfc. Winds decrease after sunset with VFR
conditions prevailing.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite RA,
Slight chance FZRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Storm total precipitation is expected to be between 0.50 and 1.0
inch, with localized higher amounts up to 1.5 inches possible
in isolated convection. Given part of this will fall as a wintry
mix and latest snow survey results show snow water equivalent
values <1.0 below 2000 feet, the threat for flooding is low, but
non zero because of the potential for convection. River and
stream levels are elevated already from recent snowmelt and
precipitation amounts and rates will need to be watched
closely, especially across northern areas on today. Sharp in-bank
rises are expected on many rivers and streams due to the area
of moderate to heavy rainfall expected today.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-002-005.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-018>021.
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Taber
HYDROLOGY...