762
FXUS61 KBTV 061407
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1007 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will taper off as surface front becomes stalled across
southern New England, then eventually pushes offshore later
tonight. Next low pressure system approaches our region from the
Great Lakes tonight into Monday and Monday night. Additional
showers, mix of rain and snow, are expected with that feature.
Tuesday and Wednesday will feature below normal temperatures,
but a return to seasonal normals is expected by the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1001 AM EDT Sunday...The widespread rain showers that
affected the region early this morning has mostly exited to our
south and east along with the frontal boundary/surface trough.
Another secondary boundary lies just off to our northwest, and
it too will slide across our region late this morning into the
early afternoon. Latest hi-res guidance indicates that
additional showers will develop along this boundary as it moves
through; in fact, already seeing some activity pop up along the
international border in northern NY, with another batch upstream
near Ottawa. While moisture will be waning through this
afternoon, expect there could be isolated to perhaps scattered
showers over the next few hours, mainly over northern areas.
Precipitation should mainly be rain, but some wet snow will be
possible, especially in the higher terrain. Have increased PoPs
and adjusted weather through early to mid afternoon
accordingly. Otherwise, ample cloud cover will prevail, though
there could be a bit more sunshine by late in the day. Highs
will be in the 40s to around 50F. Other than the changes to
PoPs, the forecast in good shape and no other changes were
needed.

Previous discussion...Scattered light rain showers have
continued across our region overnight, and will continue into
the morning hours before ending as a surface cold front will
stall out over southern New England. A weak low will develop
along this front and bring additional chances for showers to our
southern zones Sunday night into Monday. By this afternoon we
will see a decrease in cloud cover, but gusty winds. High
temperatures will be near to seasonal normals, ranging from the
low 40s to low 50s. Temperatures will drop into the 20s to lower
30s tonight, therefore precipitation reaching our southern
zones should be in the form of snow showers. Then on Monday
maximum temperatures will range through the 40s with increasing
clouds and chances for showers, first across southern Vermont in
the morning. Then increasing chances for showers from the west
by late in the day Monday ahead of next approaching system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...Strong upper level low in James Bay
rotates strong shortwave across area Monday night-Tuesday with a
developing wave overhead. Not the best storm track for
widespread snow but given pretty good instability with the upper
shortwave digging across our CWA think there will be some
decent mountain snows, with some snow squalls especially in the
north during Tuesday and it will become breezy and cold as the
surface wave pulls away.

Activity confined to the northern mountains and abates Tuesday
night with high pressure moving in for Wednesday but it will
still remain unseasonably cold but light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...As just mentioned above...high
pressure moves in for Wednesday but still in cool, cyclonic flow
so temperatures not moderating too much with highs still
unseasonably cool.

Nothing too impactful in the latter periods of this forecast
but still somewhat challenging as within the broad northern
stream cyclonic flow there are two distinctly separate systems.

First...another shortwave, associated with the upper low
responsible for our winter weather on Tuesday rotates across
Quebec/Ontario Thursday night-Friday. Meanwhile...another
shortwave drops into the northern Plains and digs south into the
lower Ms Rvr Vly and likely cuts off across SE CONUS late
Friday into the weekend with a coastal along the eastern
seaboard that may or may not impact our area until late weekend.

However, ahead of that main system is a weaker leading
shortwave that drops toward the Great Lakes and this potential
interaction with the Canadian system will determine timing and
extent of any precipitation for Thu-Fri.

Attm...leaning toward late Thu-Thu ngt onset continuing through
Friday and then will need to monitor coastal evolution for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Conditions vary from VFR all the way down
to LIFR at this time. Have low IFR/LIFR ceilings at EFK, MPV and
SLK. Other sites have MVFR ceilings, except for PBG which is
VFR. Showers may also reduce visibility down to 2-5SM at times.
Slow improvement is expected as low pressure begins to pull away
with winds become northwesterly at 8 to 13 knots sustained and
gusts up to 20 knots. More rapid improvement is expected after
18z, with SLK and EFK last to return to VFR. After 22z, winds
will begin to decrease towards 5 to 8 knots.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Neiles
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Neiles