189
FXUS61 KBTV 162322
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
722 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
this evening with a lull in activity overnight. Saturday, strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from noon through
8PM. Much cooler conditions arrive on Sunday and will linger
into the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 712 PM EDT Friday...Main focus of this update was to tweak
PoPs to better match what is occurring across the forecast area
as showers linger but trudge eastward. We`re seeing a
significant downward trend of number of storms with concerns of
being severe as instability wanes.

Previous discussion...Moderate CAPE profiles are supportive of
scattered to numerous showers with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Coupled with temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80
with dew points in the upper 50s to 60s, and a few
thunderstorms could become strong to severe. Best chance of that
occurring this afternoon/early evening will be towards the
Champlain Valley of New York and across southern Essex County,
NY and Addison/northern Rutland Counties of Vermont. An MCV
moving through Essex County, NY could be just the forcing edge
to kick off a stronger cell, but so far storms have been fairly
tame. A few have likely produced brief periods of small hail and
some modest wind gusts, but by and large, storm tops have been
low lacking a stronger forcing mechanism outside of decent
instability and general troughiness aloft. Should something get
going, it could become long-lived and feed off unseasonably hot
temperatures - BTV has hit 86 - and develop into a broken line.
Showers/thunderstorms track east through the evening with
chances decreasing overnight as weak forcing exits
northeastward. Some pockets of fog will be possible tonight
where low clouds are more limited and rainfall occurs this
afternoon/evening. Moisture/clouds will likely keep temperatures
moderated tonight for most spots, similar to this morning`s
lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

The next series of troughs will roll through the North Country
Saturday bringing decent lapse rates aloft and increased shear.
Projected hodographs, moderately high CAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg
range, and continued warmth will support better chances of
severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. As such SPC has our
region under a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms. Given tall
CAPE profiles and elevated PWATs, localized heavy rainfall with
these thunderstorms could produce flash flooding should
multiple cells go over the same area. Cloud cover will temper
high temperatures tomorrow, but still looking at upper 70s to
around 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 304 PM EDT Friday...An active, but largely unimpactful stretch
of weather is then expected for Saturday night into the Sunday night
time frame. Our area will lie on the southern flanks of a synoptic-
scale polar longwave trough centered across northern Quebec with
rather brisk west-northwest flow aloft. Two distinct shortwave
features remain on track to cross our area during the period, mainly
focused in the Sunday/Sunday night time frame. Seasonably cool
boundary layer thermal profiles support mainly snow showers or light
snows with these features, though their quick movement and limited
moisture support only light accumulations of 1-3" across elevated
terrain and perhaps the SLV, and an inch or less in the Champlain/CT
River Valleys. Low temperatures range through the teens to around 20
Saturday night with corresponding highs on Sunday in the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Then slightly milder Sunday night with generally 20s
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 304 PM EDT Friday...The broad theme for Sunday into next week
is one of much cooler and unsettled weather as a series of upper
lows affect the region. A series of rex blocks, initially across the
far North Atlantic and then across south central Canada by the
middle of next week will keep flow more bogged down across our
region through the period. Sunday into Sunday night looks quite
inclement with periodic showers and cool northerly flow, which
likely persist across portions of northern VT into Monday. Brief
drying occurs by Tuesday into the first part of Wednesday, before
the next upper closed low trundles into the area with a widespread
showery regime returning for the back half of the work week. Given
cooler temperatures and a largely stable boundary layer, the threat
for severe weather is essentially nil. Daily highs to largely range
through the 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the upper 30s
through the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z SUNDAY...Conditions are generally VFR as showers and
thunderstorms dodge sites. We`ll have a few more hours of
potential for vicinity or direct showers and thunderstorms
before all precipitation moves east of the forecast area
tonight. Best chances for some lightning will be at Plattsburgh,
Montpelier, and Newport this evening though about 03Z Saturday.
Winds out of the south and southwest will decrease overnight
tonight, and as drier, cooler air flows in from the west, some
spots might have more clearing and gaps in the clouds than they
did today. This may result in patchy mist or fog at various
sites, especially in areas that received rainfall from showers
and thunderstorms today.

Most likely sites to have some restrictions to visibility and
low ceilings tonight are SLK, MPV, EFK, and MSS. Models are
indicating PBG could also have some low vis/cigs throughout the
night tonight associated with the possibility of low stratus
developing over Lake Champlain and drifting westward. Winds
appear to remain elevated enough to keep VFR conditions at BTV
and RUT, though nothing is out of the question. Tomorrow,
ceilings are expected to lower again to MVFR levels at all sites
as showers and thunderstorms return. Visibilities are likely to
decrease in heavy precip, but this will be scattered. Winds
will continue out of the southwest and could gust 15-20 knots
for some, higher in thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Storm
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Storm